Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan
- 1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China
- 2Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, River Nile State, P.O. Box 8168, Adamer, 12217, Sudan
- 3Research Center of Fluid Machinery & Engineering, National Research Center of Pumps, Lab of Water Saving Irrigation, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013, China
- 4College of Engineering, Karary University, Khartoum, 12304, Sudan
- 5School of information Science and Eng., Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, China
Abstract. The fate of seasonal river ecosystem habitats under climate change essentially depends on the changes in annual recharge of the river, which are related to alterations in precipitation and evaporation over the river basin. Therefore, the change in climate conditions is expected to significantly affect hydrological and ecological components, particularly in fragmented ecosystems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow in the Dinder River basin (DRB) and to infer its relative possible effects on the Dinder National Park (DNP) ecosystem habitats in Sudan. Four global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two statistical downscaling approaches combined with a hydrological model (SWAT – the Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were used to project the climate change conditions over the study periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The results indicated that the climate over the DRB will become warmer and wetter under most scenarios. The projected precipitation variability mainly depends on the selected GCM and downscaling approach. Moreover, the projected streamflow is quite sensitive to rainfall and temperature variation, and will likely increase in this century. In contrast to drought periods during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, the predicted climate change is likely to affect ecosystems in DNP positively and promote the ecological restoration for the habitats of flora and fauna.