Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
Research article
 | 
16 Jan 2015
Research article |  | 16 Jan 2015

The skill of seasonal ensemble low-flow forecasts in the Moselle River for three different hydrological models

M. C. Demirel, M. J. Booij, and A. Y. Hoekstra

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Short summary
This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using three models. From the results, it appears that all models are prone to over-predict runoff during low-flow periods using ensemble seasonal meteorological forcing. The largest range for 90-day low-flow forecasts is found for the GR4J model. Overall, the uncertainty from ensemble P forecasts has a larger effect on seasonal low-flow forecasts than the uncertainty from ensemble PET forecasts and initial model conditions.
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