Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Jan 2015
Research article |
| 16 Jan 2015
The skill of seasonal ensemble low-flow forecasts in the Moselle River for three different hydrological models
Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, the Netherlands
current address: Portland State University, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, 1930 S. W. 4th Avenue, Suite 200, Portland, OR 97201, USA
M. J. Booij
Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, the Netherlands
A. Y. Hoekstra
Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, the Netherlands
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Cited
57 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- A Framework for Dry Period Low Flow Forecasting in Mediterranean Streams K. Risva et al.
- A neural network ensemble approach with jittered basin characteristics for regionalized low flow frequency analysis K. Ahn
- Improving daily stochastic streamflow prediction: comparison of novel hybrid data-mining algorithms K. Khosravi et al.
- Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe – Part I: Hindcast verification with pseudo- and real observations W. Greuell et al.
- A maximal overlap discrete wavelet packet transform integrated approach for rainfall forecasting – A case study in the Awash River Basin (Ethiopia) J. Quilty & J. Adamowski
- Prediction of monthly regional groundwater levels through hybrid soft-computing techniques F. Chang et al.
- Toward robust pattern similarity metric for distributed model evaluation E. Yorulmaz et al.
- Global Fully Distributed Parameter Regionalization Based on Observed Streamflow From 4,229 Headwater Catchments H. Beck et al.
- Comparing multi-objective optimization techniques to calibrate a conceptual hydrological model using in situ runoff and daily GRACE data A. Mostafaie et al.
- Evaluating precipitation datasets for large-scale distributed hydrological modelling M. Mazzoleni et al.
- On the use of distributed hydrologic model for filling large gaps at different parts of the streamflow data E. Ergün & M. Demirel
- Global‐scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters H. Beck et al.
- Novel approach for streamflow forecasting using a hybrid ANFIS-FFA model Z. Yaseen et al.
- Performance evaluation of conceptual rainfall-runoff models GR4J and AWBM A. Anshuman et al.
- An Emotional ANN (EANN) approach to modeling rainfall-runoff process V. Nourani
- Effectiveness of introducing crop coefficient and leaf area index to enhance evapotranspiration simulations in hydrologic models D. Birhanu et al.
- Does the Complexity of Evapotranspiration and Hydrological Models Enhance Robustness? D. Birhanu et al.
- Regionalization of catchment hydrological model parameters for global water resources simulations W. Qi et al.
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting in South America’s largest rivers I. Petry et al.
- MOSELLE NEHRİ’NDEKİ DÜŞÜK DEBİLERİN BENZETİMİ İÇİN ÇOKLU GENETİK PROGRAMLAMA MODELİNİN KALİBRE EDİLMESİ A. DADANDEH MEHR & M. DEMİREL
- Calibrating a Hydrological Model in an Ungauged Mountain Basin with the Budyko Framework Z. Yu et al.
- Exploring the use of multi-gene genetic programming in regional models for the simulation of monthly river runoff series D. Pumo & L. Noto
- Unravelling the impact of spatial discretization and calibration strategies on event-based flood models V. Manikanta & N. Umamahesh
- Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios A. Gelfan et al.
- Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? L. Arnal et al.
- Improving Seasonal Forecasts for Basin Scale Hydrological Applications M. Grillakis et al.
- Fully nonlinear statistical and machine‐learning approaches for hydrological frequency estimation at ungauged sites D. Ouali et al.
- Monthly streamflow forecasting at varying spatial scales in the Rhine basin S. Schick et al.
- Using Sporadic Streamflow Measurements to Improve and Evaluate a Streamflow Model in Ungauged Basins in Wisconsin D. Lapides
- Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin A. Ahmadalipour et al.
- Performance of ensemble streamflow forecasts under varied hydrometeorological conditions H. Benninga et al.
- A Comparative Evaluation of Conceptual Rainfall–Runoff Models for a Catchment in Victoria Australia Using eWater Source N. Zafari et al.
- Projected changes in streamflow seasonality and flood characteristics in the Moskva R. Basin O. Erina et al.
- The utilization of a GR4J model and wavelet-based artificial neural network for rainfall–runoff modelling C. Sezen & T. Partal
- Analysing the Effects of Forest Cover and Irrigation Farm Dams on Streamflows of Water-Scarce Catchments in South Australia through the SWAT Model H. Nguyen et al.
- Incorporating the logistic regression into a decision-centric assessment of climate change impacts on a complex river system D. Kim et al.
- Monthly Reservoir Inflow Forecasting for Dry Period Using Teleconnection Indices: A Statistical Ensemble Approach D. Lee et al.
- Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: a pilot study for the Rhine basin F. Ehmele et al.
- Input selection and performance optimization of ANN-based streamflow forecasts in the drought-prone Murray Darling Basin region using IIS and MODWT algorithm R. Prasad et al.
- A systematic comparison of statistical and hydrological methods for design flood estimation K. Okoli et al.
- Seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark: the effect of preprocessing and post-processing on skill and statistical consistency D. Lucatero et al.
- Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China L. Liu et al.
- Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts L. Crochemore et al.
- Seasonal discharge forecasting for the Upper Danube I. Martin Santos et al.
- A reliable rainfall–runoff model for flood forecasting: review and application to a semi-urbanized watershed at high flood risk in Italy D. Masseroni et al.
- Assessing Hydrological Modelling Driven by Different Precipitation Datasets via the SMAP Soil Moisture Product and Gauged Streamflow Data L. Yi et al.
- Water use scenarios versus climate change: Investigating future water management of the French part of the Moselle T. Lemaitre-Basset et al.
- Development of a monthly to seasonal forecast framework tailored to inland waterway transport in central Europe D. Meißner et al.
- PREMHYCE: An operational tool for low-flow forecasting P. Nicolle et al.
- PREMHYCE : un outil opérationnel pour la prévision des étiages F. Tilmant et al.
- How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts? S. Hemri et al.
- Generating Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts: A Review of Methods and Approaches Over the Past 40 Years M. Troin et al.
- Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries Y. He et al.
- Hydrological drought explained A. Van Loon
- Rolling discrete grey periodic power model with interaction effect under dual processing and its application D. Luo & L. Li
- Additional Value of Using Satellite-Based Soil Moisture and Two Sources of Groundwater Data for Hydrological Model Calibration M. Demirel et al.
57 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Added Value of Statistical Seasonal Forecasts F. Krikken et al.
- A Framework for Dry Period Low Flow Forecasting in Mediterranean Streams K. Risva et al.
- A neural network ensemble approach with jittered basin characteristics for regionalized low flow frequency analysis K. Ahn
- Improving daily stochastic streamflow prediction: comparison of novel hybrid data-mining algorithms K. Khosravi et al.
- Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe – Part I: Hindcast verification with pseudo- and real observations W. Greuell et al.
- A maximal overlap discrete wavelet packet transform integrated approach for rainfall forecasting – A case study in the Awash River Basin (Ethiopia) J. Quilty & J. Adamowski
- Prediction of monthly regional groundwater levels through hybrid soft-computing techniques F. Chang et al.
- Toward robust pattern similarity metric for distributed model evaluation E. Yorulmaz et al.
- Global Fully Distributed Parameter Regionalization Based on Observed Streamflow From 4,229 Headwater Catchments H. Beck et al.
- Comparing multi-objective optimization techniques to calibrate a conceptual hydrological model using in situ runoff and daily GRACE data A. Mostafaie et al.
- Evaluating precipitation datasets for large-scale distributed hydrological modelling M. Mazzoleni et al.
- On the use of distributed hydrologic model for filling large gaps at different parts of the streamflow data E. Ergün & M. Demirel
- Global‐scale regionalization of hydrologic model parameters H. Beck et al.
- Novel approach for streamflow forecasting using a hybrid ANFIS-FFA model Z. Yaseen et al.
- Performance evaluation of conceptual rainfall-runoff models GR4J and AWBM A. Anshuman et al.
- An Emotional ANN (EANN) approach to modeling rainfall-runoff process V. Nourani
- Effectiveness of introducing crop coefficient and leaf area index to enhance evapotranspiration simulations in hydrologic models D. Birhanu et al.
- Does the Complexity of Evapotranspiration and Hydrological Models Enhance Robustness? D. Birhanu et al.
- Regionalization of catchment hydrological model parameters for global water resources simulations W. Qi et al.
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting in South America’s largest rivers I. Petry et al.
- MOSELLE NEHRİ’NDEKİ DÜŞÜK DEBİLERİN BENZETİMİ İÇİN ÇOKLU GENETİK PROGRAMLAMA MODELİNİN KALİBRE EDİLMESİ A. DADANDEH MEHR & M. DEMİREL
- Calibrating a Hydrological Model in an Ungauged Mountain Basin with the Budyko Framework Z. Yu et al.
- Exploring the use of multi-gene genetic programming in regional models for the simulation of monthly river runoff series D. Pumo & L. Noto
- Unravelling the impact of spatial discretization and calibration strategies on event-based flood models V. Manikanta & N. Umamahesh
- Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios A. Gelfan et al.
- Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? L. Arnal et al.
- Improving Seasonal Forecasts for Basin Scale Hydrological Applications M. Grillakis et al.
- Fully nonlinear statistical and machine‐learning approaches for hydrological frequency estimation at ungauged sites D. Ouali et al.
- Monthly streamflow forecasting at varying spatial scales in the Rhine basin S. Schick et al.
- Using Sporadic Streamflow Measurements to Improve and Evaluate a Streamflow Model in Ungauged Basins in Wisconsin D. Lapides
- Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin A. Ahmadalipour et al.
- Performance of ensemble streamflow forecasts under varied hydrometeorological conditions H. Benninga et al.
- A Comparative Evaluation of Conceptual Rainfall–Runoff Models for a Catchment in Victoria Australia Using eWater Source N. Zafari et al.
- Projected changes in streamflow seasonality and flood characteristics in the Moskva R. Basin O. Erina et al.
- The utilization of a GR4J model and wavelet-based artificial neural network for rainfall–runoff modelling C. Sezen & T. Partal
- Analysing the Effects of Forest Cover and Irrigation Farm Dams on Streamflows of Water-Scarce Catchments in South Australia through the SWAT Model H. Nguyen et al.
- Incorporating the logistic regression into a decision-centric assessment of climate change impacts on a complex river system D. Kim et al.
- Monthly Reservoir Inflow Forecasting for Dry Period Using Teleconnection Indices: A Statistical Ensemble Approach D. Lee et al.
- Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: a pilot study for the Rhine basin F. Ehmele et al.
- Input selection and performance optimization of ANN-based streamflow forecasts in the drought-prone Murray Darling Basin region using IIS and MODWT algorithm R. Prasad et al.
- A systematic comparison of statistical and hydrological methods for design flood estimation K. Okoli et al.
- Seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark: the effect of preprocessing and post-processing on skill and statistical consistency D. Lucatero et al.
- Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China L. Liu et al.
- Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts L. Crochemore et al.
- Seasonal discharge forecasting for the Upper Danube I. Martin Santos et al.
- A reliable rainfall–runoff model for flood forecasting: review and application to a semi-urbanized watershed at high flood risk in Italy D. Masseroni et al.
- Assessing Hydrological Modelling Driven by Different Precipitation Datasets via the SMAP Soil Moisture Product and Gauged Streamflow Data L. Yi et al.
- Water use scenarios versus climate change: Investigating future water management of the French part of the Moselle T. Lemaitre-Basset et al.
- Development of a monthly to seasonal forecast framework tailored to inland waterway transport in central Europe D. Meißner et al.
- PREMHYCE: An operational tool for low-flow forecasting P. Nicolle et al.
- PREMHYCE : un outil opérationnel pour la prévision des étiages F. Tilmant et al.
- How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts? S. Hemri et al.
- Generating Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts: A Review of Methods and Approaches Over the Past 40 Years M. Troin et al.
- Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries Y. He et al.
- Hydrological drought explained A. Van Loon
- Rolling discrete grey periodic power model with interaction effect under dual processing and its application D. Luo & L. Li
- Additional Value of Using Satellite-Based Soil Moisture and Two Sources of Groundwater Data for Hydrological Model Calibration M. Demirel et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 03 May 2026
Short summary
This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using three models. From the results, it appears that all models are prone to over-predict runoff during low-flow periods using ensemble seasonal meteorological forcing. The largest range for 90-day low-flow forecasts is found for the GR4J model. Overall, the uncertainty from ensemble P forecasts has a larger effect on seasonal low-flow forecasts than the uncertainty from ensemble PET forecasts and initial model conditions.
This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using three models. From the...
