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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 17, issue 11
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4389–4399, 2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: HESS Opinions 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4389–4399, 2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Opinion article 07 Nov 2013

Opinion article | 07 Nov 2013

HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts"

F. Wetterhall1, F. Pappenberger1, L. Alfieri1, H. L. Cloke2, J. Thielen-del Pozo3, S. Balabanova4, J. Daňhelka5, A. Vogelbacher6, P. Salamon3, I. Carrasco7, A. J. Cabrera-Tordera8, M. Corzo-Toscano8, M. Garcia-Padilla8, R. J. Garcia-Sanchez8, C. Ardilouze9, S. Jurela10, B. Terek10, A. Csik11, J. Casey12, G. Stankūnavičius13, V. Ceres14, E. Sprokkereef15, J. Stam15, E. Anghel16, D. Vladikovic17, C. Alionte Eklund18, N. Hjerdt18, H. Djerv18, F. Holmberg18, J. Nilsson18, K. Nyström18, M. Sušnik19, M. Hazlinger20, and M. Holubecka20 F. Wetterhall et al.
  • 1European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
  • 2University of Reading, Reading, UK
  • 3European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
  • 4National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, Bulgaria
  • 5Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
  • 6Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt, Augsburg, Germany
  • 7Confederación Hidrográfica del Ebro, Zaragoza, Spain
  • 8Environmental Information Network of Andalusia, Cuenca, Spain
  • 9Service Central d'Hydrométéorologie et d'Appui à la Prévision des Inondations, Toulouse, France
  • 10Hydrological and Meteorological Service Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia
  • 11Environmental Protection and Water Management Research Centre, Budapest, Hungary
  • 12Office of Public Works, Dublin, Ireland
  • 13Department of Hydrology and Climatology, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
  • 14State Hydrometeorological Service, Ghimet, Moldova
  • 15Rijkswaterstaat, Lelystad, the Netherlands
  • 16National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, Bucharest, Romania
  • 17Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
  • 18Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
  • 19Slovenian Environment Agency, Ljubljana, Slovenia
  • 20Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratislava, Slovakia

Abstract. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

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