Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?
M. H. Ramos
Irstea (formerly: Cemagref), Hydrology Group, UR HBAN, Antony, France
S. J. van Andel
UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands
F. Pappenberger
ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK
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Cited
126 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Probabilistic flood forecasting on the Rhone River: evaluation with ensemble and analogue-based precipitation forecasts J. Bellier et al.
- Point, interval, and density forecasts: Differences in bias, judgment noise, and overall accuracy X. Niu & N. Harvey
- A decision‐making experiment under wind power forecast uncertainty C. Möhrlen et al.
- How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in hydrological ensemble prediction F. Pappenberger et al.
- Reliable long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts: Combining calibrated climate forecasts with a conceptual runoff model and a staged error model J. Bennett et al.
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al.
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices L. Crochemore et al.
- Improving probabilistic hydroclimatic projections through high-resolution convection-permitting climate modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations S. Wang & Y. Wang
- Predictive Uncertainty Estimation of Hydrological Multi-Model Ensembles Using Pair-Copula Construction B. Klein et al.
- Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications L. Arnal et al.
- Probabilistic extreme SST and marine heatwave forecasts in Chesapeake Bay: A forecast model, skill assessment, and potential value A. Ross & C. Stock
- Creative practice as a tool to build resilience to natural hazards in the Global South A. Van Loon et al.
- Bluecat: A Local Uncertainty Estimator for Deterministic Simulations and Predictions D. Koutsoyiannis & A. Montanari
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- Flood Forecasting and Warning System: A Survey of Models and Their Applications in West Africa M. Fofana et al.
- Expressing Flood Likelihood: Return Period versus Probability M. Grounds et al.
- A System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) to lead times of 9 days J. Bennett et al.
- Toward Improved Probabilistic Predictions for Flood Forecasts Generated Using Deterministic Models X. Jiang et al.
- Valuing the Codesign of Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Models G. Yang et al.
- From Deterministic to Probabilistic Forecasts: The ‘Shift-Target’ Approach in the Milan Urban Area (Northern Italy) G. Lombardi et al.
- A systematic review of measurement uncertainty visualizations in the context of standardized assessments A. Heltne et al.
- Weekly Monitoring and Forecasting of Hydropower Production Coupling Meteo-Hydrological Modeling with Ground and Satellite Data in the Italian Alps C. Corbari et al.
- Using a Bayesian joint probability approach to improve the skill of medium-range forecasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall N. Samal et al.
- The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products P. Goodwin et al.
- Moving beyond the cost–loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker S. Matte et al.
- Challenges of Operational River Forecasting T. Pagano et al.
- A Bayesian approach for assessing the boundary between desirable and undesirable environmental status – An example from a coastal fish indicator in the Baltic Sea M. Laurila-Pant et al.
- The Weather Roulette: A Game to Communicate the Usefulness of Probabilistic Climate Predictions M. Terrado et al.
- Statistical Postprocessing and Multivariate Structuring of High-Resolution Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts C. van Straaten et al.
- Evaluation of the Impact of Multi-Source Uncertainties on Meteorological and Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting Z. Shu et al.
- Quantification of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling by harnessing the wisdom of the crowd: A large-sample experiment at monthly timescale G. Papacharalampous et al.
- Probabilistic Forecasts of Snow Water Equivalent and Runoff in Mountainous Areas* S. Jörg-Hess et al.
- Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios P. Goodwin et al.
- From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment M. Giuliani et al.
- A national flood awareness system for ungauged catchments in complex topography: The case of development, communication and evaluation in New Zealand C. Cattoën et al.
- A high-resolution physical–biogeochemical model for marine resource applications in the northwest Atlantic (MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 v1.0) A. Ross et al.
- Evaluation of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies for flash-flood forecasting over a catchment of the eastern Pyrenees H. Roux et al.
- Operational hydrometeorological forecasting on the Rhône River in France: moving toward a seamless probabilistic approach L. Caillouet et al.
- Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: a comparison P. López López et al.
- Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts of the height of new snow J. Nousu et al.
- Potential skill of continental-scale, medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts for flood prediction in South America V. Siqueira et al.
- Comparison of Single-Valued Forecasts in a User-Oriented Framework M. Foley & N. Loveday
- Impact of improved meteorological forcing, profile of soil hydraulic conductivity and data assimilation on an operational Hydrological Ensemble Forecast System over France M. Coustau et al.
- FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts B. Maybee et al.
- Evaluation and Benchmarking of Operational Short-Range Ensemble Mean and Median Streamflow Forecasts for the Ohio River Basin T. Adams III & R. Dymond
- The Value of Probabilistic Prediction for Lightning Ignited Fires F. Di Giuseppe
- Comparison of different quantile regression methods to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty in the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand S. Acharya et al.
- Creating effective flood warnings: A framework from a critical review M. Kuller et al.
- An Experiment on Risk-Based Decision-Making in Water Management Using Monthly Probabilistic Forecasts L. Crochemore et al.
- Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts as Innovations and the Challenges of Adoption by Water Managers S. Whateley et al.
- The Science of NOAA's Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service J. Demargne et al.
- Quantification of the Risks on Dam Preliminary Release Based on Ensemble Rainfall Forecasts and Determination of Operation H. Inomata et al.
- Dağlık Havzalarda Uydu Kar Verisi ve Dalgacık Sinir Ağı Tabanlı Olasılıklı Akım Modelleme Yaklaşımı G. UYSAL & A. SENSOY
- Serious gaming in flood risk management S. Forrest et al.
- Ensemble streamflow forecasting experiments in a tropical basin: The São Francisco river case study F. Fan et al.
- Comparison of stochastic and machine learning methods for multi-step ahead forecasting of hydrological processes G. Papacharalampous et al.
- Communicating Probability Information in Weather Forecasts: Findings and Recommendations from a Living Systematic Review of the Research Literature J. Ripberger et al.
- Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity J. Neumann et al.
- Daily time series of river water levels derived from a seasonal linear model using multisource satellite products under uncertainty H. Pham et al.
- Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change A. Ross & R. Najjar
- The role of rating curve uncertainty in real‐time flood forecasting D. Ocio et al.
- Generating Coherent Ensemble Forecasts After Hydrological Postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC‐Based Methods J. Bellier et al.
- Designing environmental uncertainty information for experts and non‐experts: Does data presentation affect users’ decisions and interpretations? K. Mulder et al.
- A nonlinear spatio-temporal lumping of radar rainfall for modeling multi-step-ahead inflow forecasts by data-driven techniques F. Chang & M. Tsai
- A framework for developing a real-time lake phytoplankton forecasting system to support water quality management in the face of global change C. Carey et al.
- Comparative analysis of inflow forecasting using machine learning and statistical techniques: case study of Mangla reservoir and Marala Headworks M. Khan et al.
- Use of Ensemble-Based Forecasting Methods in Reservoir Operation: Issues and Implementation Challenges R. Teegavarapu et al.
- The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate in southern Africa H. Winsemius et al.
- Experiences of dealing with flash floods using an ensemble hydrological nowcasting chain: implications of communication, accessibility and distribution of the results F. Silvestro et al.
- Public Understanding of Visual Representations of Uncertainty in Temperature Forecasts S. Tak et al.
- Determinants of evacuation timing in response to probabilistic forecasts K. Georgakakos
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: an assessment of methods S. Charles et al.
- Advances and challenges in multi‑scale water environment system modeling: from process simulation to a novel simulator architecture R. Xia et al.
- Improving Precipitation Forecasts by Generating Ensembles through Postprocessing D. Shrestha et al.
- A Comparative Verification of Raw and Bias-Corrected ECMWF Seasonal Ensemble Precipitation Reforecasts in Java (Indonesia) D. Ratri et al.
- The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe N. Korhonen et al.
- What makes a marine heatwave forecast useable, useful and used? C. Spillman et al.
- A deep learning-based probabilistic approach to flash flood warnings in mountainous catchments Y. Zhao et al.
- Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond) E. Stephens & H. Cloke
- What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge F. Olsson et al.
- Understanding the use of 2015–2016 El Niño forecasts in shaping early humanitarian action in Eastern and Southern Africa A. Tozier de la Poterie et al.
- Probabilistic forecasting of hourly emergency department arrivals B. Rostami-Tabar et al.
- A rainfall threshold‐based approach to early warnings in urban data‐scarce regions: A case study of pluvial flooding in Alexandria, Egypt A. Young et al.
- Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User‐led development and testing C. Birch et al.
- Probabilistic multi-step ahead streamflow forecast based on deep learning D. Karimanzira et al.
- Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region with a Distributed Hydrological Model Forced by GEFS Reforecasts R. Siddique & A. Mejia
- Hydrological uncertainty processor based on a copula function Z. Liu et al.
- Probabilistic Hydrological Post-Processing at Scale: Why and How to Apply Machine-Learning Quantile Regression Algorithms G. Papacharalampous et al.
- HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts" F. Wetterhall et al.
- Probabilistic forecasting and the reshaping of flood risk management S. Michaels
- Predictive uncertainty assessment in flood forecasting using quantile regression A. M. K. & C. N. R
- Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy S. Wadsworth & J. Niemi
- Flood forecasting on the Tocantins River using ensemble rainfall forecasts and real‐time satellite rainfall estimates F. Fan et al.
- Time is money: Costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices T. Ma et al.
- airGRteaching: an open-source tool for teaching hydrological modeling with R O. Delaigue et al.
- Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game L. Arnal et al.
- Improving Trust in AI with Mitigating Confirmation Bias: Effects of Explanation Type and Debiasing Strategy for Decision-Making with Explainable AI T. Ha & S. Kim
- Probabilistic Projections of Multidimensional Flood Risks at a Convection‐Permitting Scale B. Zhang et al.
- From scientific models to decisions: exploring uncertainty communication gaps between scientists and decision-makers A. Dhungana et al.
- Synergies entre acteurs opérationnels et scientifiques au service de l'amélioration de la prévision des crues C. Furusho et al.
- Artificial intelligence for modeling and understanding extreme weather and climate events G. Camps-Valls et al.
- Trivariate joint frequency analysis of water resources deficiency signatures using vine copulas M. Nazeri Tahroudi et al.
- Influence of Flood Risk Awareness and Communication on Real Estate Investment Decision-Making A. Oyetunji et al.
- A coupled human–natural system to assess the operational value of weather and climate services for agriculture Y. Li et al.
- Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting J. Bellier et al.
- A review on climate‐model‐based seasonal hydrologic forecasting: physical understanding and system development X. Yuan et al.
- ReAFFIRM: Real-time Assessment of Flash Flood Impacts – a Regional high-resolution Method J. Ritter et al.
- Short-Term Reservoir Optimization for Flood Mitigation under Meteorological and Hydrological Forecast Uncertainty D. Schwanenberg et al.
- A stacking ensemble model for hydrological post-processing to improve streamflow forecasts at medium-range timescales over South Korea D. Lee & K. Ahn
- Efficient prediction uncertainty quantification in dam behavior monitoring with attention-based sequence-to-sequence learning M. Li et al.
- The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe F. Pappenberger et al.
- A stochastic wavelet-based data-driven framework for forecasting uncertain multiscale hydrological and water resources processes J. Quilty & J. Adamowski
- Rainfall nowcasting models: state of the art and possible future perspectives D. De Luca et al.
- Warning cultures in practice: Shadow systems in local flood risk governance J. Da Costa et al.
- The effect of likelihood and impact information on public response to severe weather warnings A. Taylor et al.
- Enhancing the Predictability of Seasonal Streamflow With a Statistical‐Dynamical Approach L. Slater & G. Villarini
- Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry R. Bessa et al.
- Post-processing ECMWF precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic forecasting at various spatial scales J. Verkade et al.
- Embedding communication concepts in forecasting training increases students' understanding of ecological uncertainty W. Woelmer et al.
- To Act or Not To Act? Factors Influencing the General Public’s Decision about Whether to Take Protective Action against Severe Weather T. Kox & A. Thieken
- Operational snow-hydrological modeling for Switzerland R. Mott et al.
- “Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England L. Arnal et al.
- A Value‐Based Model Selection Approach for Environmental Random Variables M. Müller & S. Thompson
- Comparing expert judgement and numerical criteria for hydrograph evaluation L. Crochemore et al.
- Hydrological Modeling and Capacity Building in the Republic of Namibia R. Clark et al.
- Probabilistic early warning of flash floods using Monte Carlo simulation and hydrological modelling X. Wu et al.
126 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Probabilistic flood forecasting on the Rhone River: evaluation with ensemble and analogue-based precipitation forecasts J. Bellier et al.
- Point, interval, and density forecasts: Differences in bias, judgment noise, and overall accuracy X. Niu & N. Harvey
- A decision‐making experiment under wind power forecast uncertainty C. Möhrlen et al.
- How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in hydrological ensemble prediction F. Pappenberger et al.
- Reliable long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts: Combining calibrated climate forecasts with a conceptual runoff model and a staged error model J. Bennett et al.
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al.
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices L. Crochemore et al.
- Improving probabilistic hydroclimatic projections through high-resolution convection-permitting climate modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations S. Wang & Y. Wang
- Predictive Uncertainty Estimation of Hydrological Multi-Model Ensembles Using Pair-Copula Construction B. Klein et al.
- Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications L. Arnal et al.
- Probabilistic extreme SST and marine heatwave forecasts in Chesapeake Bay: A forecast model, skill assessment, and potential value A. Ross & C. Stock
- Creative practice as a tool to build resilience to natural hazards in the Global South A. Van Loon et al.
- Bluecat: A Local Uncertainty Estimator for Deterministic Simulations and Predictions D. Koutsoyiannis & A. Montanari
- Effect of White Matter Uncertainty Visualization in Neurosurgical Decision-Making F. Siddiqui et al.
- Flood Forecasting and Warning System: A Survey of Models and Their Applications in West Africa M. Fofana et al.
- Expressing Flood Likelihood: Return Period versus Probability M. Grounds et al.
- A System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) to lead times of 9 days J. Bennett et al.
- Toward Improved Probabilistic Predictions for Flood Forecasts Generated Using Deterministic Models X. Jiang et al.
- Valuing the Codesign of Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Models G. Yang et al.
- From Deterministic to Probabilistic Forecasts: The ‘Shift-Target’ Approach in the Milan Urban Area (Northern Italy) G. Lombardi et al.
- A systematic review of measurement uncertainty visualizations in the context of standardized assessments A. Heltne et al.
- Weekly Monitoring and Forecasting of Hydropower Production Coupling Meteo-Hydrological Modeling with Ground and Satellite Data in the Italian Alps C. Corbari et al.
- Using a Bayesian joint probability approach to improve the skill of medium-range forecasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall N. Samal et al.
- The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products P. Goodwin et al.
- Moving beyond the cost–loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker S. Matte et al.
- Challenges of Operational River Forecasting T. Pagano et al.
- A Bayesian approach for assessing the boundary between desirable and undesirable environmental status – An example from a coastal fish indicator in the Baltic Sea M. Laurila-Pant et al.
- The Weather Roulette: A Game to Communicate the Usefulness of Probabilistic Climate Predictions M. Terrado et al.
- Statistical Postprocessing and Multivariate Structuring of High-Resolution Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts C. van Straaten et al.
- Evaluation of the Impact of Multi-Source Uncertainties on Meteorological and Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting Z. Shu et al.
- Quantification of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling by harnessing the wisdom of the crowd: A large-sample experiment at monthly timescale G. Papacharalampous et al.
- Probabilistic Forecasts of Snow Water Equivalent and Runoff in Mountainous Areas* S. Jörg-Hess et al.
- Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios P. Goodwin et al.
- From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment M. Giuliani et al.
- A national flood awareness system for ungauged catchments in complex topography: The case of development, communication and evaluation in New Zealand C. Cattoën et al.
- A high-resolution physical–biogeochemical model for marine resource applications in the northwest Atlantic (MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 v1.0) A. Ross et al.
- Evaluation of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies for flash-flood forecasting over a catchment of the eastern Pyrenees H. Roux et al.
- Operational hydrometeorological forecasting on the Rhône River in France: moving toward a seamless probabilistic approach L. Caillouet et al.
- Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: a comparison P. López López et al.
- Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts of the height of new snow J. Nousu et al.
- Potential skill of continental-scale, medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts for flood prediction in South America V. Siqueira et al.
- Comparison of Single-Valued Forecasts in a User-Oriented Framework M. Foley & N. Loveday
- Impact of improved meteorological forcing, profile of soil hydraulic conductivity and data assimilation on an operational Hydrological Ensemble Forecast System over France M. Coustau et al.
- FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts B. Maybee et al.
- Evaluation and Benchmarking of Operational Short-Range Ensemble Mean and Median Streamflow Forecasts for the Ohio River Basin T. Adams III & R. Dymond
- The Value of Probabilistic Prediction for Lightning Ignited Fires F. Di Giuseppe
- Comparison of different quantile regression methods to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty in the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand S. Acharya et al.
- Creating effective flood warnings: A framework from a critical review M. Kuller et al.
- An Experiment on Risk-Based Decision-Making in Water Management Using Monthly Probabilistic Forecasts L. Crochemore et al.
- Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts as Innovations and the Challenges of Adoption by Water Managers S. Whateley et al.
- The Science of NOAA's Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service J. Demargne et al.
- Quantification of the Risks on Dam Preliminary Release Based on Ensemble Rainfall Forecasts and Determination of Operation H. Inomata et al.
- Dağlık Havzalarda Uydu Kar Verisi ve Dalgacık Sinir Ağı Tabanlı Olasılıklı Akım Modelleme Yaklaşımı G. UYSAL & A. SENSOY
- Serious gaming in flood risk management S. Forrest et al.
- Ensemble streamflow forecasting experiments in a tropical basin: The São Francisco river case study F. Fan et al.
- Comparison of stochastic and machine learning methods for multi-step ahead forecasting of hydrological processes G. Papacharalampous et al.
- Communicating Probability Information in Weather Forecasts: Findings and Recommendations from a Living Systematic Review of the Research Literature J. Ripberger et al.
- Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity J. Neumann et al.
- Daily time series of river water levels derived from a seasonal linear model using multisource satellite products under uncertainty H. Pham et al.
- Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change A. Ross & R. Najjar
- The role of rating curve uncertainty in real‐time flood forecasting D. Ocio et al.
- Generating Coherent Ensemble Forecasts After Hydrological Postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC‐Based Methods J. Bellier et al.
- Designing environmental uncertainty information for experts and non‐experts: Does data presentation affect users’ decisions and interpretations? K. Mulder et al.
- A nonlinear spatio-temporal lumping of radar rainfall for modeling multi-step-ahead inflow forecasts by data-driven techniques F. Chang & M. Tsai
- A framework for developing a real-time lake phytoplankton forecasting system to support water quality management in the face of global change C. Carey et al.
- Comparative analysis of inflow forecasting using machine learning and statistical techniques: case study of Mangla reservoir and Marala Headworks M. Khan et al.
- Use of Ensemble-Based Forecasting Methods in Reservoir Operation: Issues and Implementation Challenges R. Teegavarapu et al.
- The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate in southern Africa H. Winsemius et al.
- Experiences of dealing with flash floods using an ensemble hydrological nowcasting chain: implications of communication, accessibility and distribution of the results F. Silvestro et al.
- Public Understanding of Visual Representations of Uncertainty in Temperature Forecasts S. Tak et al.
- Determinants of evacuation timing in response to probabilistic forecasts K. Georgakakos
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: an assessment of methods S. Charles et al.
- Advances and challenges in multi‑scale water environment system modeling: from process simulation to a novel simulator architecture R. Xia et al.
- Improving Precipitation Forecasts by Generating Ensembles through Postprocessing D. Shrestha et al.
- A Comparative Verification of Raw and Bias-Corrected ECMWF Seasonal Ensemble Precipitation Reforecasts in Java (Indonesia) D. Ratri et al.
- The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe N. Korhonen et al.
- What makes a marine heatwave forecast useable, useful and used? C. Spillman et al.
- A deep learning-based probabilistic approach to flash flood warnings in mountainous catchments Y. Zhao et al.
- Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond) E. Stephens & H. Cloke
- What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge F. Olsson et al.
- Understanding the use of 2015–2016 El Niño forecasts in shaping early humanitarian action in Eastern and Southern Africa A. Tozier de la Poterie et al.
- Probabilistic forecasting of hourly emergency department arrivals B. Rostami-Tabar et al.
- A rainfall threshold‐based approach to early warnings in urban data‐scarce regions: A case study of pluvial flooding in Alexandria, Egypt A. Young et al.
- Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User‐led development and testing C. Birch et al.
- Probabilistic multi-step ahead streamflow forecast based on deep learning D. Karimanzira et al.
- Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region with a Distributed Hydrological Model Forced by GEFS Reforecasts R. Siddique & A. Mejia
- Hydrological uncertainty processor based on a copula function Z. Liu et al.
- Probabilistic Hydrological Post-Processing at Scale: Why and How to Apply Machine-Learning Quantile Regression Algorithms G. Papacharalampous et al.
- HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts" F. Wetterhall et al.
- Probabilistic forecasting and the reshaping of flood risk management S. Michaels
- Predictive uncertainty assessment in flood forecasting using quantile regression A. M. K. & C. N. R
- Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy S. Wadsworth & J. Niemi
- Flood forecasting on the Tocantins River using ensemble rainfall forecasts and real‐time satellite rainfall estimates F. Fan et al.
- Time is money: Costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices T. Ma et al.
- airGRteaching: an open-source tool for teaching hydrological modeling with R O. Delaigue et al.
- Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game L. Arnal et al.
- Improving Trust in AI with Mitigating Confirmation Bias: Effects of Explanation Type and Debiasing Strategy for Decision-Making with Explainable AI T. Ha & S. Kim
- Probabilistic Projections of Multidimensional Flood Risks at a Convection‐Permitting Scale B. Zhang et al.
- From scientific models to decisions: exploring uncertainty communication gaps between scientists and decision-makers A. Dhungana et al.
- Synergies entre acteurs opérationnels et scientifiques au service de l'amélioration de la prévision des crues C. Furusho et al.
- Artificial intelligence for modeling and understanding extreme weather and climate events G. Camps-Valls et al.
- Trivariate joint frequency analysis of water resources deficiency signatures using vine copulas M. Nazeri Tahroudi et al.
- Influence of Flood Risk Awareness and Communication on Real Estate Investment Decision-Making A. Oyetunji et al.
- A coupled human–natural system to assess the operational value of weather and climate services for agriculture Y. Li et al.
- Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting J. Bellier et al.
- A review on climate‐model‐based seasonal hydrologic forecasting: physical understanding and system development X. Yuan et al.
- ReAFFIRM: Real-time Assessment of Flash Flood Impacts – a Regional high-resolution Method J. Ritter et al.
- Short-Term Reservoir Optimization for Flood Mitigation under Meteorological and Hydrological Forecast Uncertainty D. Schwanenberg et al.
- A stacking ensemble model for hydrological post-processing to improve streamflow forecasts at medium-range timescales over South Korea D. Lee & K. Ahn
- Efficient prediction uncertainty quantification in dam behavior monitoring with attention-based sequence-to-sequence learning M. Li et al.
- The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe F. Pappenberger et al.
- A stochastic wavelet-based data-driven framework for forecasting uncertain multiscale hydrological and water resources processes J. Quilty & J. Adamowski
- Rainfall nowcasting models: state of the art and possible future perspectives D. De Luca et al.
- Warning cultures in practice: Shadow systems in local flood risk governance J. Da Costa et al.
- The effect of likelihood and impact information on public response to severe weather warnings A. Taylor et al.
- Enhancing the Predictability of Seasonal Streamflow With a Statistical‐Dynamical Approach L. Slater & G. Villarini
- Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry R. Bessa et al.
- Post-processing ECMWF precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic forecasting at various spatial scales J. Verkade et al.
- Embedding communication concepts in forecasting training increases students' understanding of ecological uncertainty W. Woelmer et al.
- To Act or Not To Act? Factors Influencing the General Public’s Decision about Whether to Take Protective Action against Severe Weather T. Kox & A. Thieken
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Latest update: 26 Apr 2026