Calibration of the modified Bartlett-Lewis model using global optimization techniques and alternative objective functions

Abstract. The calibration of stochastic point process rainfall models, such as of the Bartlett-Lewis type, suffers from the presence of multiple local minima which local search algorithms usually fail to avoid. To meet this shortcoming, four relatively new global optimization methods are presented and tested for their ability to calibrate the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Model. The list of tested methods consists of: the Downhill Simplex Method, Simplex-Simulated Annealing, Particle Swarm Optimization and Shuffled Complex Evolution. The parameters of these algorithms are first optimized to ensure optimal performance, after which they are used for calibration of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis model. Furthermore, this paper addresses the choice of weights in the objective function. Three alternative weighing methods are compared to determine whether or not simulation results (obtained after calibration with the best optimization method) are influenced by the choice of weights.