Articles | Volume 16, issue 8
Research article
16 Aug 2012
Research article |  | 16 Aug 2012

Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts

P. J. Smith, K. J. Beven, A. H. Weerts, and D. Leedal

Abstract. This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offer a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.