Articles | Volume 16, issue 8
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2783–2799, 2012
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2783-2012

Special issue: Latest advances and developments in data assimilation for...

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2783–2799, 2012
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2783-2012

Research article 16 Aug 2012

Research article | 16 Aug 2012

Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts

P. J. Smith1, K. J. Beven1, A. H. Weerts2, and D. Leedal1 P. J. Smith et al.
  • 1Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, UK
  • 2Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract. This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offer a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.