Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts
- 1Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, UK
- 2Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands
Abstract. This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offer a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.