Articles | Volume 15, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3367-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3367-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Nov 2011
Research article |
| 15 Nov 2011
Evaluating uncertainty estimates in hydrologic models: borrowing measures from the forecast verification community
K. J. Franz
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA
T. S. Hogue
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA
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- Evaluation of the contributions of climate change and overgrazing to runoff in a typical grassland inland river basin Y. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101725
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- Forecasting upper and lower uncertainty bands of river flood discharges with high predictive skill J. Leandro et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.052
- Evaluation of crop model prediction and uncertainty using Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian model averaging Y. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108686
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- Assessing the impacts of climate change on flooding under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 scenarios in the river Chenab, Pakistan S. Kiran et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05892-4
- Vers une production en temps réel d'intervalles prédictifs associés aux prévisions de crue dans Vigicrues en France J. Viatgé et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/lhb/2019016
- An Interval-Deviation Approach for hydrology and water quality model evaluation within an uncertainty framework L. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.043
- Adaptation measures under the impacts of climate and land-use/land-cover changes using HSPF model simulation: Application to Gongola river basin, Nigeria A. Salaudeen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159874
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- Can antecedent moisture conditions modulate the increase in flood risk due to climate change in urban catchments? S. Hettiarachchi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.039
- Exploring the spatio-temporal variability of four satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) in northern Morocco: a comparative study of complex climatic and topographic conditions C. Et-Takaouy et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42990-024-00119-5
- Ensemble Representation of Satellite Precipitation Uncertainty Using a Nonstationary, Anisotropic Autocorrelation Model S. Hartke et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031650
- Quantification of predictive uncertainty with a metamodel: toward more efficient hydrologic simulations V. Tran & J. Kim https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-019-01703-0
- Performance assessment of a Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) for real-time flood forecasting D. Biondi & D. De Luca https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.019
- Incorporating IMERG satellite precipitation uncertainty into seasonal and peak streamflow predictions using the Hillslope Link hydrological model S. Hartke et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2023.100148
- Spatio-temporal similarities and differences between three Satellite Precipitation Products under complex climatic and topographic conditions K. En-Nagre et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2026.06.011
- Uncertainty in hydrological analysis of climate change: multi-parameter vs. multi-GCM ensemble predictions Y. Her et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-41334-7
- Addressing subjective decision-making inherent in GLUE-based multi-criteria rainfall–runoff model calibration M. Shafii et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.051
- Verification of Ensemble Water Supply Forecasts for Sierra Nevada Watersheds M. He et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology3040035
- Transferring global uncertainty estimates from gauged to ungauged catchments F. Bourgin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1580
- Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources R. Dankers & Z. Kundzewicz https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4
- How to assess climate change impact models: uncertainty analysis of streamflow statistics via approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) J. Romero-Cuellar & F. Francés https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2231437
- Assessment of SWE data assimilation for ensemble streamflow predictions K. Franz et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.008
- GARD-LENS: A downscaled large ensemble dataset for understanding future climate and its uncertainties S. Hartke et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-04205-z
- Improvement of model evaluation by incorporating prediction and measurement uncertainty L. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4145-2018
- Estimating nitrogen release from Brassicacatch crop residues—Comparison of different approaches within the APSIM model I. Vogeler et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2019.104358
- Estimation of soil subsurface hydraulic conductivity based on inverse modelling and soil morphology I. Vogeler et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.002
- WITHDRAWN: Incorporating IMERG satellite precipitation uncertainty into seasonal and peak streamflow predictions using the Hillslope Link hydrological model S. Hartke et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.129012
- An integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation approach for improved operational streamflow predictions M. He et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-815-2012
- Generating Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts: A Review of Methods and Approaches Over the Past 40 Years M. Troin et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028392
- Sequential streamflow assimilation for short-term hydrological ensemble forecasting M. Abaza et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.038
- How important is the description of soil unsaturated hydraulic conductivity values for simulating soil saturation level, drainage and pasture yield? I. Vogeler et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126257
47 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Towards an Extension of the Model Conditional Processor: Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Monthly Streamflow via Gaussian Mixture Models and Clusters J. Romero-Cuellar et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14081261
- Predicting fecal coliform using the interval-to-interval approach and SWAT in the Miyun watershed, China J. Bai et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9101-7
- Disentangling timing and amplitude errors in streamflow simulations S. Seibert et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3745-2016
- Review of Nonpoint Source Pollution Models: Current Status and Future Direction M. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14203217
- Reconstruction of multi‐decadal groundwater level time‐series using a lumped conceptual model C. Jackson et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10850
- Rainfall-runoff modeling based on HEC-HMS model: a case study in an area with increased groundwater discharge potential M. Herbei et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2024.1474990
- River runoff estimation with satellite rainfall in Morocco Y. Tramblay et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2171295
- Modelling outburst floods from moraine-dammed glacial lakes M. Westoby et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.03.009
- Evaluation of the contributions of climate change and overgrazing to runoff in a typical grassland inland river basin Y. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101725
- Performance evaluation of four satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) in hydrological modelling across five northern moroccan catchments C. Et-Takaouy et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2026.106149
- Effect of variability in soil properties plus model complexity on predicting topsoil water content and nitrous oxide emissions I. Vogeler & R. Cichota https://doi.org/10.1071/SR18080
- Forecasting upper and lower uncertainty bands of river flood discharges with high predictive skill J. Leandro et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.052
- Evaluation of crop model prediction and uncertainty using Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian model averaging Y. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108686
- Data and Calibration Challenges for Spill Response Models R. Bahadur & W. Samuels https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EE.1943-7870.0001319
- 20 Years nitrogen dynamics study by using APSIM nitrogen model simulation for sustainable management in Jilin China N. Tahir et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-96386-5
- Benchmarking hydrological models for low-flow simulation and forecasting on French catchments P. Nicolle et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2829-2014
- Hydrological modelling using ensemble satellite rainfall estimates in a sparsely gauged river basin: The need for whole-ensemble calibration C. Skinner et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.052
- Assessing the impacts of climate change on flooding under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 scenarios in the river Chenab, Pakistan S. Kiran et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05892-4
- Vers une production en temps réel d'intervalles prédictifs associés aux prévisions de crue dans Vigicrues en France J. Viatgé et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/lhb/2019016
- An Interval-Deviation Approach for hydrology and water quality model evaluation within an uncertainty framework L. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.043
- Adaptation measures under the impacts of climate and land-use/land-cover changes using HSPF model simulation: Application to Gongola river basin, Nigeria A. Salaudeen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159874
- Real-time assimilation of streamflow observations into a hydrological routing model: effects of model structures and updating methods M. Mazzoleni et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1430898
- Aleatory-aware deep uncertainty quantification for transfer learning H. Kabir et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compbiomed.2022.105246
- Can antecedent moisture conditions modulate the increase in flood risk due to climate change in urban catchments? S. Hettiarachchi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.039
- Exploring the spatio-temporal variability of four satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) in northern Morocco: a comparative study of complex climatic and topographic conditions C. Et-Takaouy et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42990-024-00119-5
- Ensemble Representation of Satellite Precipitation Uncertainty Using a Nonstationary, Anisotropic Autocorrelation Model S. Hartke et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031650
- Quantification of predictive uncertainty with a metamodel: toward more efficient hydrologic simulations V. Tran & J. Kim https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-019-01703-0
- Performance assessment of a Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) for real-time flood forecasting D. Biondi & D. De Luca https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.019
- Incorporating IMERG satellite precipitation uncertainty into seasonal and peak streamflow predictions using the Hillslope Link hydrological model S. Hartke et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2023.100148
- Spatio-temporal similarities and differences between three Satellite Precipitation Products under complex climatic and topographic conditions K. En-Nagre et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2026.06.011
- Uncertainty in hydrological analysis of climate change: multi-parameter vs. multi-GCM ensemble predictions Y. Her et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-41334-7
- Addressing subjective decision-making inherent in GLUE-based multi-criteria rainfall–runoff model calibration M. Shafii et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.051
- Verification of Ensemble Water Supply Forecasts for Sierra Nevada Watersheds M. He et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology3040035
- Transferring global uncertainty estimates from gauged to ungauged catchments F. Bourgin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1580
- Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources R. Dankers & Z. Kundzewicz https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4
- How to assess climate change impact models: uncertainty analysis of streamflow statistics via approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) J. Romero-Cuellar & F. Francés https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2231437
- Assessment of SWE data assimilation for ensemble streamflow predictions K. Franz et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.008
- GARD-LENS: A downscaled large ensemble dataset for understanding future climate and its uncertainties S. Hartke et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-04205-z
- Improvement of model evaluation by incorporating prediction and measurement uncertainty L. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4145-2018
- Estimating nitrogen release from Brassicacatch crop residues—Comparison of different approaches within the APSIM model I. Vogeler et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2019.104358
- Estimation of soil subsurface hydraulic conductivity based on inverse modelling and soil morphology I. Vogeler et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.002
- WITHDRAWN: Incorporating IMERG satellite precipitation uncertainty into seasonal and peak streamflow predictions using the Hillslope Link hydrological model S. Hartke et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.129012
- An integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation approach for improved operational streamflow predictions M. He et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-815-2012
- Generating Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts: A Review of Methods and Approaches Over the Past 40 Years M. Troin et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028392
- Sequential streamflow assimilation for short-term hydrological ensemble forecasting M. Abaza et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.038
- How important is the description of soil unsaturated hydraulic conductivity values for simulating soil saturation level, drainage and pasture yield? I. Vogeler et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126257
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