Impact of climate change on the stream flow of the lower Brahmaputra: trends in high and low flows based on discharge-weighted ensemble modelling

Abstract. Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology. The Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world as it is subject to the combined effects of glacier melt, extreme monsoon rainfall and sea level rise. To what extent climate change will impact river flow in the Brahmaputra basin is yet unclear, as climate model studies show ambiguous results. In this study we investigate the effect of climate change on both low and high flows of the lower Brahmaputra. We apply a novel method of discharge-weighted ensemble modeling using model outputs from a global hydrological models forced with 12 different global climate models (GCMs). Our analysis shows that only a limited number of GCMs are required to reconstruct observed discharge. Based on the GCM outputs and long-term records of observed flow at Bahadurabad station, our method results in a multi-model weighted ensemble of transient stream flow for the period 1961–2100. Using the constructed transients, we subsequently project future trends in low and high river flow. The analysis shows that extreme low flow conditions are likely to occur less frequent in the future. However a very strong increase in peak flows is projected, which may, in combination with projected sea level change, have devastating effects for Bangladesh. The methods presented in this study are more widely applicable, in that existing multi-model streamflow simulations from global hydrological models can be weighted against observed streamflow data to assess at first order the effects of climate change for specific river basins.