Mapping snow depth return levels: smooth spatial modeling versus station interpolation

Blanchet, J.; Lehning, M.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2527-2010

Articles | Volume 14, issue 12

Article
Peer review
Metrics
Related articles

Articles | Volume 14, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2527-2010

Articles | Volume 14, issue 12

Article
Peer review
Metrics
Related articles

Research article

13 Dec 2010

Research article |

| 13 Dec 2010

Mapping snow depth return levels: smooth spatial modeling versus station interpolation

J. Blanchet and M. Lehning

J. Blanchet

WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland

M. Lehning

WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland

Related subject area

Subject: Snow and Ice | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches

Hydrological effects of the temporal variability of the multiscaling of snowfall on the Canadian prairies

K. R. Shook and J. W. Pomeroy

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1195–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1195-2010,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1195-2010, 2010

Cited articles

Akaike, H.: A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE T. Automat. Contr., 19, 716–723, https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705, 1974.

Bavay, M., Lehning, M., Jonas, T., and L{ö}we, H.: Simulations of future snow cover and discharge in {A}lpine headwater catchments, Hydrol. Process., 23, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7195, 2009.

Beguer{\'i}a, S. and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Mapping the Hazard of Extreme Rainfall by Peaks over Threshold Extreme Value Analysis and Spatial Regression Techniques, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 45, 108–124, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2324.1, 2006.

Beniston, M., Keller, F., Koffi, B., and Goyette, S.: Estimates of snow accumulation and volume in the {S}wiss {A}lps under changing climatic conditions, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 76, 125–140, 2003.

Blanchet, J. and Davison, A. C.: Spatial modelling of extreme snow depth, revised, 2010.

Blanchet, J., Marty, C., and Lehning, M.: Extreme value statistics of snowfall in the Swiss Alpine region, Water Resour. Res., 45, W05424, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR007916, 2009.

Bocchiola, D. and Diolaiuti, G.: Evidence of climate change within the Adamello Glacier of Italy, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 100, 351–369, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0186-x, 2010.

Bocchiola, D., Medagliani, M., and Rosso, R.: Regional snow depth frequency curves for avalanche hazard mapping in central {I}talian {A}lps, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 46, 204–221, 2006.

Bocchiola, D., Bianchi Janetti, E., Gorni, E., Marty, C., and Sovilla, B.: Regional evaluation of three day snow depth for avalanche hazard mapping in Switzerland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 685–705, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-685-2008, 2008.

Brown, B. G. and Katz, R. W.: Regional analysis of temperature extremes: spatial analog for climate change?, J. Climate, 8, 108–119, 1995.

Bründl, M., Etter, H.-J., Steiniger, M., Klingler, Ch., Rhyner, J., and Ammann, W. J.: IFKIS – a basis for managing avalanche risk in settlements and on roads in Switzerland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 257–262, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-257-2004, 2004.

Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modelling of Extreme Values, Springer, New York, 2001.

Cooley, D., Nychka, D., and Naveau, P.: Bayesian Spatial Modeling of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 102, 824–840, https://doi.org/10.1198/016214506000000780, 2007.

Cox, D. and Hinkley, D.: Theoretical Statistics, Chapman and Hall, 1974.

Cressie, N. A.: Statistics for spatial data, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, 1993.

Davison, A. C. and Smith, R. L.: Models for exceedances over high thresholds (with discussion), J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Ser. B, 52, 393–442, 1990.

Diggle, P. J. and Ribeiro, P. J.: Model-based Geostatistics, Springer Series in Statistics, New York, 2007.

Erxleben, J., Elder, K., and Davis, R.: Comparison of spatial interpolation methods for estimating snow distribution in the {C}olorado {R}ocky mountains, Hydrol. Process., 16, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1239, 2002.

Foppa, N., Stoffel, A., and Meister, R.: Synergy of in situ and space borne observation for snow depth mapping in the {S}wiss {A}lps, International J. Appl. Earth Obs., 9, 294–310, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2006.10.001, 2007.

Friederichs, P. and Hense, A.: Statistical Downscaling of Extreme Precipitation Events Using Censored Quantile Regression, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 2365–2378, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3403.1, 2007.

Gardes, L. and Girard, S.: Conditional extremes from heavy-tailed distributions: an application to the estimation of extreme rainfall return levels, Extremes, 13, 177–204, 2010.

Grünewald, T., Schirmer, M., Mott, R., and Lehning, M.: Spatial and temporal variability of snow depth and ablation rates in a small mountain catchment, The Cryosphere, 4, 215–225, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-215-2010, 2010.

Hall, P. and Tajvidi, N.: Nonparametric Analysis of Temporal Trend When Fitting Parametric Models to Extreme-Value Data, Stat. Sci., 15, 153–167, 2000.

Harshburger, B. J., Humes, K. S., Walden, V. P., Blandford, T. R., Moore, B. C., and Dezzani, R. J.: Spatial interpolation of snow water equivalency using surface observations and remotely sensed images of snow-covered area, Hydrol. Process., 24, 1285–1295, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7590, 2010.

Hastie, T. J. and Tibshirani, R. J.: Generalized Additive Models, Chapman & Hall, New York, 1990.

Katz, R. W.: Statistics of extremes in climate change, Climatic Change, 100, 71–76, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9834-5, 2010.

Katz, R. W., Parlange, M. B., and Naveau, P.: Statistics of extremes in hydrology, Adv. Water Resour., 25, 1287–1304, 2002.

Kohnov{á}, S., Parajka, J., Szolgay, J., and Hlavcov{á}, K.: Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards, chap. Mapping of Gumbel Extreme Value Distribution Parameters for Estimation of Design Precipitation Totals at Ungauged Sites, Springer Verlag, 129–136, 2009.

Lateltin, O. and Bonnard, C.: Hazard assessment and land-use planning in S}witzerland for snow avalanches, floods and landslides, in: The {C}omprehensive {R}isk {A}ssessment for {N}atural {H}azards – {A contribution to the {I}nternational decade for natural disasters reduction ({IDNDR}), Technical Reports, World Meteorological Organization, sols, 1999.

Leadbetter, M. R., Lindgren, G., and Rootzén, H.: Extremes and Related Properties of Random Sequences and Processes, Springer Verlag, New York, 1983.

L{ó}pez-Moreno, J. I. and Nogu{é}s-Bravo, D.: A generalized additive model for the spatial distribution of snowpack in the {S}panish {P}yrenees, Hydrol. Process., 19, 3167–3176, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5840, 2005.

Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L., Dalezios, N., and Domenikiotis, C.: Rainfall-frequency mapping for Greece, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. B, 26, 669–674, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-1909(01)00067-3, 2001.

Maraun, D., Rust, H., and Osborn, T.: Synoptic airflow and UK daily precipitation extremes, Extremes, 13, 133–153, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10687-010-0102-x, 2010.

Marchand, W.-D., Killingtveit, A., Wil{é}n, P., and Wikström, P.: Comparison of Ground-Based and Airborne Snow Depth Measurements with Georadar Systems, Case Study, Nord. Hydrol., 34, 427–448, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2003.025, 2003.

Marty, C.: Regime shift of snow days in {S}witzerland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033998, 2008.

Marx, B. D. and Eilers, P. H. C.: Direct generalized additive modeling with penalized likelihood, Comput. Stat. Data An., 28, 193–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-9473(98)00033-4, 1998.

Molotch, N. P., Colee, M. T., Bales, R. C., and Dozier, J.: Estimating the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent in an alpine basin using binary regression tree models: the impact of digital elevation data and independent variable selection, Hydrol. Process., 19, 1459–1479, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5586, 2005.

Nalder, I. A. and Wein, R. W.: Spatial interpolation of climatic normals: test of a new method in the {C}anadian boreal forest, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 92, 211–225, 1998.

Naveau, P., Nogaj, M., Ammann, C., Yiou, P., Cooley, D., and Jomelli, V.: Statistical methods for the analysis of climate extremes, Compt. Rendus Geosci., 337, 1013–1022, 2005.

Padoan, S. and Wand, M.: Mixed model-based additive models for sample extremes, Stat. Probabil. Lett., 78, 2850–2858, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spl.2008.04.009, 2008.

Padoan, S. A., Ribatet, M., and Sisson, S. A.: Likelihood-based inference for max-stable processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 105, 263–277, https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2009.tm08577, 2010.

Palutikof, J. P., Brabson, B. B., Lister, D. H., and Adcoc, S. T.: A review of methods to calculate extreme wind speeds, Meteorol. Appl., 6, 119–132, 1999.

Ramesh, N. I. and Davison, A. C.: Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes, J. Hydrol., 256, 106–119, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00522-4, 2002.

Reiss, R. D. and Thomas, M.: Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values with Applications to Insurance, Finance, Hydrology and Other Fields, Birkha{ü}ser, Basel, Switzerland, 3 edition, 2007.

Schabenberger, O. and Gotway, C. A.: Statistical Methods for Spatial Data Analysis, Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2005.

Scherrer, S. C., Appenzeller, C., and Laternser, M.: Trends in Swiss Alpine snow days: The role of local- and large-scale climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13215, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020255, 2004.

SLF: Der Lawinenwinter 1999 Ereignisanalyse, Eidg. Institut f{ü}r Schnee- und Lawinenforshung SLF, 2000.

Smith, R. L.: Maximum likelihood estimation in a class of nonregular cases, Biometrika, 72, 67–90, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/72.1.67, 1985.

Szolgay, J., Parajka, J., Kohnov{á}, S., and Hlavcov{á}, K.: Comparison of mapping approaches of design annual maximum daily precipitation, Atmos. Res., 92, 289–307, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.01.009, 2009.

Takeuchi, K.: Distribution of informational statistics and a criterion of model fitting, Suri-Kagaku (Mathematic Sciences), 153, 12–18, 1976.

Varin, C.: On composite marginal likelihoods, Adv. Stat. Anal., 92, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10182-008-0060-7, 2008.

Varin, C. and Vidoni, P.: A note on composite likelihood inference and model selection, Biometrika, 92, 519–528, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/92.3.519, 2005.

Vasiliev, O., Van Gelder, P., Plate, E., and Bolgov, M.: Extreme Hydrological Events: New Concepts for Security, vol. 78 of NATO Science Series IV: Earth & Environmental Sciences, Springer, 2007.

Weisse, A. K. and Bois, P.: Topographic Effects on Statistical Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall and Mapping in the French Alps, J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 720–740, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0720:TEOSCO>2.0.CO;2, 2001.

Weisse, A. K. and Bois, P.: A comparison of methods for mapping statistical characteristics of heavy rainfall in the French Alps: the use of daily information, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 47, 739–752, 2002.

Wood, S.: Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R, Chapman & Hall, 2006.