A multitemporal remote sensing approach to parsimonious streamflow modeling in a southcentral Texas watershed, USA

Abstract. Soil moisture condition plays a vital role in a watershed's hydrologic response to a precipitation event and is thus parameterized in most, if not all, rainfall-runoff models. Yet the soil moisture condition antecedent to an event has proven difficult to quantify both spatially and temporally. This study assesses the potential to parameterize a parsimonious streamflow prediction model solely utilizing precipitation records and multi-temporal remotely sensed biophysical variables (i.e.~from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Terra satellite). This study is conducted on a 1420 km² rural watershed in the Guadalupe River basin of southcentral Texas, a basin prone to catastrophic flooding from convective precipitation events. A multiple regression model, accounting for 78% of the variance of observed streamflow for calendar year 2004, was developed based on gauged precipitation, land surface temperature, and enhanced vegetation Index (EVI), on an 8-day interval. These results compared favorably with streamflow estimations utilizing the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number method and the 5-day antecedent moisture model. This approach has great potential for developing near real-time predictive models for flood forecasting and can be used as a tool for flood management in any region for which similar remotely sensed data are available.