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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">HESSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">HESSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1812-2116</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/hess-2024-95</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A storyline-based approach towards changing typhoon intensities over the Pearl River Delta under future conditions using Pseudo-Global Warming</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Olschewski</surname>
<given-names>Patrick</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sun</surname>
<given-names>Qi</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2442-8131</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wei</surname>
<given-names>Jianhui</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8609-9600</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Yu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tian</surname>
<given-names>Zhan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sun</surname>
<given-names>Laixiang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Arnault</surname>
<given-names>Joël</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8859-5173</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schober</surname>
<given-names>Tanja C.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9436-710X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Böker</surname>
<given-names>Brian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9539-3385</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kunstmann</surname>
<given-names>Harald</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Laux</surname>
<given-names>Patrick</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8657-6152</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMKIFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055,  People’s Republic of China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Pengchen Laboratory, Shenzhen, 518066, People’s Republic of China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>School of Finance &amp; Management, SOAS University of London, London, WC1H 0XG, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Dr. Blasy – Dr. Øverland Ingenieure GmbH, Eching am Ammersee, 82279, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, 86159, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Climate Resilience, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, 86159, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>05</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2024</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2024 Patrick Olschewski et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2024</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2024-95/">This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2024-95/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2024-95/hess-2024-95.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2024-95/hess-2024-95.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>During the Pacific typhoon season of 2023, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) was hit by a series of typhoons, causing unprecedented precipitation as well as fatalities and significant damages. There are indications that these events may intensify under climate change. However, the unfolding of similar events in the future is yet to be fully understood. We therefore conducted an investigation of historical typhoon events affecting the PRD using Pseudo-Global Warming. Within this framework, we perturbed the historical initial and boundary conditions obtained from ERA5 reanalysis and handed to the regional model WRF according to the climate change signal projected by the CMIP6 ensemble under SSP5-8.5. We pursued a storyline-based approach, in which each of the 16 selected CMIP6 models acted as the basis for an individual storyline of future typhoon intensity. Additionally, we created two storylines based on thermodynamic drivers to create scenarios with excessively favorable and unfavorable conditions for typhoon intensification, resulting in 18 storylines that were assessed for seven representative typhoons. WRF was set up in a two-way nesting framework using domains of 25 km and 5 km resolution, of which the latter was used for further assessment. For each typhoon, the simulations were initiated at the start of the first intensification phase and statistically assessed until landfall. Minimum sea level pressure, maximum wind speed, mean and maximum 1-hourly precipitation rates as well as the integrated kinetic energy (IKE) as an advanced measure for typhoon damage potential were used to determine typhoon intensity. Results indicate a general increase in typhoon intensity across all metrics for six of the seven inspected typhoons. This increase is notably higher for specific storylines, and the projected increase in the extreme values of the inspected metrics significantly exceed the median change of all storylines. This indicates that the true potential range may lie above what would be expected under a median approach. The results suggest a maximum decrease of up to 15 hPa for minimum central pressure, 11 m s&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; increase for maximum wind speed, 2.5 mm h&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; for mean and 50 mm h&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; for maximum precipitation rates. The two additional storylines revealed an even higher intensity increase in the form of central minimum pressure decreases and wind maxima increases for two typhoons, but mostly resembled the span provided by the 16 GCM-based storylines. These results can support the optimization of the development of protective measures considering the improved range of intensity potential.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Ministry of Science and Technology of the People&apos;s Republic of China</funding-source>
<award-id>2019YFE0124800</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung</funding-source>
<award-id>01LP2005A</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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