the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Learning Landscape Features from Streamflow with Autoencoders
Abstract. Understanding the number and types of signatures that best describe streamflow time series is a crucial objective in hydrological science, serving applications such as catchment classification, hydrological model development and calibration. With the main objective of learning a minimal number of streamflow features, we employ an explicit noise conditional autoencoder (ENCA), which, together with meteorological forcings, allows for an accurate reconstruction of the whole streamflow time series. The ENCA architecture feeds the meteorological forcing to the decoder in order to incentivize the encoder to only learn features that are related to landscape properties. By isolating the effect of meteorology, these features can thus be interpreted as landscape fingerprints. The optimal number of features is found by means of an intrinsic dimension estimator. We train our model on the hydro-meteorologic time series data of 568 catchments of the continental United States from the CAMELS dataset. We compare the reconstruction accuracy with state-of-the-art models that take as input a subset of static catchment attributes (both climate and landscape attributes) along with the meteorological forcing variables. Our results suggest that available static catchment attributes compiled by experts account for almost all the relevant information about the rainfall-runoff relationship. Yet, these catchment attributes can be summarized by only two relevant learnt features (or signatures), while a third one is needed for about a dozen difficult catchments in the central US, mainly characterized by high aridity index and intermittent flow. The principal components of the learnt features strongly correlate with the baseflow index and aridity indicators, which is consistent with the idea that these indicators capture the variability of catchment hydrological response and relate to needed model complexity. The correlation analysis further indicates that soil-related and vegetation attributes are of high importance. Finally, in the attempt to interpret the learnt catchment features, we relate them to typical hydrological model components, with specific reference to the parameters of the GR4J model and their function on the hydrograph.
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CC1: 'Comment on hess-2024-47', John Ding, 22 Feb 2024
Sect. 2.4 Training and Validation
The form of NSE Nash - Sutcliffe efficiency, Equation (1), is also applied but much earlier by me (Ding, 1974, Equations 40, 47).
In hindsight, this is at variance with the original formulation published by Nash and Sutcliffe (1970, Equation 2) in which the so-called "initial variance" is a constant, as opposed to a model-dependent variable used by both of us.
Duc and Sawada (2023, Equations 3, 24, and Figure 2) recently pointed out, this earliest known variant of the NSE is in fact a standard statistical measure of the coefficient of determination, R^2. I've had little or no reason to beg to differ, but the authors may think otherwise.
In final analysis, what counts is the base SSE, sum of squares of the error, or its equivalents, the MSE as the authors note in Lines 171-172, or RMSE.
References
Ding, J.Y., 1974. Variable unit hydrograph. Journal of Hydrology, 22(1-2), pp.53-69.
Duc, L. and Sawada, Y.: A signal-processing-based interpretation of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1827–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1827-2023, 2023.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-CC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Alberto Bassi, 21 Mar 2024
Thank you for pointing out this error!
It was a typo, since we are actually using the original NSE version in the computation (Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970). We will correct it.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC1
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AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Alberto Bassi, 21 Mar 2024
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RC1: 'Comment on hess-2024-47', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Mar 2024
Review of Bassi et al., Learning Landscape Features from Streamflow with Autoencoders (HESSD)
Bassi et al. use a so-called explicit noise conditional autoencoder (ENCA) to extract a minimal number of streamflow features from a large sample of catchments from the CAMELS US database. The ENCA extracts streamflow features that, together with meteorological variables, allow to reconstruct the streamflow time series. Thus, the features carry information about the way the catchments transform the meteorological signal into the streamflow signal, which should be related to catchment attributes. To explore the information content of these features, the authors relate them to static catchment attributes, hydrological signatures, and (qualitatively) to model parameters of the GR4J model. This shows that the learnt features are related to various hydrological signatures and catchment attributes, especially those related to climate. The authors conclude that the static catchment attributes used contain almost all relevant information to reconstruct the streamflow time series and that these attributes can be summarized only by two to three relevant features extractable by the ENCA.
The paper is well written and of interest to the HESS readership. Overall, I think it has the potential to become a very interesting contribution, but it requires clarifications and revisions before it can be published. Below I list major and minor comments that hopefully help to strengthen the paper.
Major comments:
The authors often write “sufficient”, “succeed”, etc. I think this is a bit misleading because (a) this binary view is not appropriate when we really look at a range of “goodness of fit” values, and (b) NSE is only one of many possible metrics to assess a model, with often discussed shortcomings (see e.g. Clark et al., 2021).
For instance, in the abstract the authors write “available static catchment attributes compiled by experts account for almost all the relevant information about the rainfall-runoff relationship”. But:
(1) The median NSE is never higher than 0.7. That might be viewed as "good” but it is still lower than the maximum value of 1, so there should be room for improvement. (Besides the fact that it is difficult to interpret what a value of 0.7 really means hydrologically for a diverse set of catchments.)
(2) The median bias is close to 0, but this should be relatively easy to enforce with calibration. (Also note that most variability in the water balance can already be explained by aridity alone.)
(3) All models consistently underestimate variability, suggesting that there is some aspect of streamflow dynamics that they miss. (This might also explain why the median NSE is still far from 1, given that NSE should partly relate to how well streamflow variability is captured).
Does that really mean that all the relevant information about the rainfall-runoff process is captured? I would challenge that, because we may not capture many other aspects of streamflow response (i.e. hydrological signatures) that are relevant, for example those related to high flows, recessions, climate sensitivities, etc. At one point the authors even write that “It can partly be attributed to using NSE as objective function for training which puts more weight on matching high flow.” So I think some parts of the manuscript need to be reworded to make it clearer that the results mainly refer to a "good" NSE. Generally, I think the manuscript requires a more thorough discussion of possible shortcomings related to the use of metrics such as NSE. It might also be worthwhile to investigate other signatures for calibration and evaluation to get a more differentiated picture of the rainfall-runoff process, so that the statement that all relevant information is captured can be made with more confidence (or perhaps that it cannot be made).
As a side note, the splitting up of NSE (or KGE) into its components – essentially variability, timing, and volume errors – leads to three quite similar metrics. It might be worth considering to use these three components, because they are similar to the metrics used here but their relationship is better understood (see also Gupta et al., 2009). In addition, the other two metrics, especially the variability metric, might be correlated with NSE. It would be interesting to show the correlation between the different evaluation metrics to see how independent they are.
My second major point is about what the ENCA really learns. The authors write that forcing is fed to the decoder and thus it only learns “features that are related to landscape properties”. Is that really the case? Let’s say we feed temperature, potential evaporation (or radiation) and precipitation to the ENCA model (or really any kind of model), then the model somehow represents the interactions between the forcing variables, to some degree mediated by properties of the catchment system (e.g. soils). But: there is a lot of interaction that explains the hydrological response almost independent of any landscape feature. For example, the (long-term and seasonal) interaction between precipitation and potential evaporation can explain most of the variability in the water balance. And the interaction between temperature, radiation and precipitation can explain most of the variability in snow accumulation and melt (at least at the catchment scale). We know this because studies like Knoben et al. (2018) have derived interactive indices that basically take meteorological variables and translate them into “climate fingerprints” that explain a lot of the observed variability in streamflow (though not all of it). In particular, these climate indices explain similar signatures as the ones that are well explained in this study. This makes me wonder to what extent the learnt features are really landscape fingerprints that relate to what we might call catchment form (topography, soils, geology, etc.). Because in Figure 6 it is mainly climate and streamflow signatures that show high correlations, and only a few landscape attributes show weak to medium correlations (and are themselves are related to climate, e.g. forest fraction). I am not an expert in ML methods like ENCA, so perhaps I did not fully grasp the way ENCA works. Still, I would appreciate if the authors could discuss this in more detail in a revised version of the manuscript.
The discussion around GR4J requires some improvement. It does not actually compare the results to model parameters (either calibrated or estimated based on a priori information), so it remains a qualitative discussion on how certain conceptual parameters relate to the learnt features. It would be much more convincing if some analysis was performed using GR4J to actually show that (a) the GR4J parameters are indeed related to the features (or signatures) discussed (essentially a sensitivity analysis) and (b) whether parameters calibrated to the catchments studied here relate to the extracted features (which would require calibrating GR4J to all the catchments).
Minor comments
- I was wondering if there is a way to explain more tangibly what the learnt features are, especially for people not familiar with ENCA etc.? How do they relate to signatures (typically single numbers)?
- Figure 1: estimated Q looks almost like observed Q: is the model so good or is this the same graph?
- The quality of the figures (e.g. Figure 2) is sometimes a bit poor.
- It should read topographical and not topological in Table 1.
- l.209 and elsewhere: “collected by experts” might be a bit misleading. Many of those attributes are from continental or global maps, which are of course derived by experts (e.g. in soil surveys) but perhaps not with the idea of explaining catchment response.
- Figure 6: are these absolute correlations or why are they >0?
- l.222: “does now exceed” should that be “not exceed”?
- l.230 and elsewhere: I wouldn’t say that NSE>0 means “success”, see also major comments.
- Figure 7: the maps are very small and instead could be shown below each other. They also need to be labelled more clearly, e.g. a, b, c for the subpanels. This is true for many other plots as well.
- Figure 8: the axes should be labelled. The standardization also makes it a bit difficult to interpret what we see. Might here be an easier way to show this? May a plot of BFI vs. aridity (potentially coloured according to a third variable), with circles around the 15 catchments?
- The GR4J groundwater exchange coefficient is a tricky parameter, because it may account for all sorts of water balance problems that might not necessarily relate to groundwater exchanges. This could be discussed somewhere around l.315 that contains a similar discussion on mass balance enforcement in LSTMs.
References
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., & Martinez, G. F. (2009). Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling. Journal of hydrology, 377(1-2), 80-91.
Knoben, W. J., Woods, R. A., & Freer, J. E. (2018). A quantitative hydrological climate classification evaluated with independent streamflow data. Water Resources Research, 54(7), 5088-5109.
Clark, M. P., Vogel, R. M., Lamontagne, J. R., Mizukami, N., Knoben, W. J., Tang, G., ... & Papalexiou, S. M. (2021). The abuse of popular performance metrics in hydrologic modeling. Water Resources Research, 57(9), e2020WR029001.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-RC1 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Alberto Bassi, 03 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters.
Review of Bassi et al., Learning Landscape Features from Streamflow with Autoencoders (HESSD)
Bassi et al. use a so-called explicit noise conditional autoencoder (ENCA) to extract a minimal number of streamflow features from a large sample of catchments from the CAMELS US database. The ENCA extracts streamflow features that, together with meteorological variables, allow to reconstruct the streamflow time series. Thus, the features carry information about the way the catchments transform the meteorological signal into the streamflow signal, which should be related to catchment attributes. To explore the information content of these features, the authors relate them to static catchment attributes, hydrological signatures, and (qualitatively) to model parameters of the GR4J model. This shows that the learnt features are related to various hydrological signatures and catchment attributes, especially those related to climate. The authors conclude that the static catchment attributes used contain almost all relevant information to reconstruct the streamflow time series and that these attributes can be summarized only by two to three relevant features extractable by the ENCA.
The paper is well written and of interest to the HESS readership. Overall, I think it has the potential to become a very interesting contribution, but it requires clarifications and revisions before it can be published. Below I list major and minor comments that hopefully help to strengthen the paper.
Thank you !
Major comments:
The authors often write “sufficient”, “succeed”, etc. I think this is a bit misleading because (a) this binary view is not appropriate when we really look at a range of “goodness of fit” values, and (b) NSE is only one of many possible metrics to assess a model, with often discussed shortcomings (see e.g. Clark et al., 2021).
For instance, in the abstract the authors write “available static catchment attributes compiled by experts account for almost all the relevant information about the rainfall-runoff relationship”. But:
(1) The median NSE is never higher than 0.7. That might be viewed as "good” but it is still lower than the maximum value of 1, so there should be room for improvement. (Besides the fact that it is difficult to interpret what a value of 0.7 really means hydrologically for a diverse set of catchments.)
We acknowledge the need for a more cautious interpretation of the NSE values obtained in our study. While these values are generally considered good, it's important to recognise that they may not represent state-of-the-art predictions. The phrase 'available static catchment attributes compiled by experts account for almost all the relevant information about the rainfall-runoff relationship' should be understood in relation to the results found by ENCA compared with CAAM (the model fed with known catchment attributes). We will revise this statement in the next iteration to provide clearer context and avoid potential misinterpretation.
(2) The median bias is close to 0, but this should be relatively easy to enforce with calibration. (Also note that most variability in the water balance can already be explained by aridity alone.)
While it's true that bias can be easily enforced to be zero through calibration, our intention in this study was to minimise the imposition of constraints during training to reduce model assumptions. By allowing flexibility in the model without enforcing biases, we aimed to explore the natural variability of the system and avoid potentially biased results. Additionally, it's noteworthy that the influence of aridity alone already explains much of the variability in the water balance, we will investigate this point in future work.
(3) All models consistently underestimate variability, suggesting that there is some aspect of streamflow dynamics that they miss. (This might also explain why the median NSE is still far from 1, given that NSE should partly relate to how well streamflow variability is captured).
This it is a general feature of training with NSE, that tends to underestimate the flow variability.
Does that really mean that all the relevant information about the rainfall-runoff process is captured? I would challenge that, because we may not capture many other aspects of streamflow response (i.e. hydrological signatures) that are relevant, for example those related to high flows, recessions, climate sensitivities, etc. At one point the authors even write that “It can partly be attributed to using NSE as objective function for training which puts more weight on matching high flow.” So I think some parts of the manuscript need to be reworded to make it clearer that the results mainly refer to a "good" NSE. Generally, I think the manuscript requires a more thorough discussion of possible shortcomings related to the use of metrics such as NSE. It might also be worthwhile to investigate other signatures for calibration and evaluation to get a more differentiated picture of the rainfall-runoff process, so that the statement that all relevant information is captured can be made with more confidence (or perhaps that it cannot be made).
As a side note, the splitting up of NSE (or KGE) into its components – essentially variability, timing, and volume errors – leads to three quite similar metrics. It might be worth considering to use these three components, because they are similar to the metrics used here but their relationship is better understood (see also Gupta et al., 2009). In addition, the other two metrics, especially the variability metric, might be correlated with NSE. It would be interesting to show the correlation between the different evaluation metrics to see how independent they are.
Thank you for your valuable input. Examining the three components in which NSE can be decomposed could indeed provide valuable insights into what ENCA actually learns. We will enhance the discussion surrounding the NSE values in the next iteration of the manuscript, ensuring a thorough exploration of the limitations and implications. Additionally, your suggestion to consider other evaluation metrics, such as those outlined by Gupta et al. (2009), presents an intriguing avenue for further analysis. We will investigate these metrics and explore their correlation with NSE to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the rainfall-runoff process.
My second major point is about what the ENCA really learns. The authors write that forcing is fed to the decoder and thus it only learns “features that are related to landscape properties”. Is that really the case? Let’s say we feed temperature, potential evaporation (or radiation) and precipitation to the ENCA model (or really any kind of model), then the model somehow represents the interactions between the forcing variables, to some degree mediated by properties of the catchment system (e.g. soils). But: there is a lot of interaction that explains the hydrological response almost independent of any landscape feature. For example, the (long-term and seasonal) interaction between precipitation and potential evaporation can explain most of the variability in the water balance. And the interaction between temperature, radiation and precipitation can explain most of the variability in snow accumulation and melt (at least at the catchment scale). We know this because studies like Knoben et al. (2018) have derived interactive indices that basically take meteorological variables and translate them into “climate fingerprints” that explain a lot of the observed variability in streamflow (though not all of it). In particular, these climate indices explain similar signatures as the ones that are well explained in this study. This makes me wonder to what extent the learnt features are really landscape fingerprints that relate to what we might call catchment form (topography, soils, geology, etc.). Because in Figure 6 it is mainly climate and streamflow signatures that show high correlations, and only a few landscape attributes show weak to medium correlations (and are themselves are related to climate, e.g. forest fraction). I am not an expert in ML methods like ENCA, so perhaps I did not fully grasp the way ENCA works. Still, I would appreciate if the authors could discuss this in more detail in a revised version of the manuscript.
Our hypothesis here is that the decoder, which is an LSTM model, is flexible enough to extract all the information in the meteorological drivers insofar as it is relevant for runoff prediction. This includes all information contained in the interaction between those drivers. Under this assumption, the encoder is incentivized to only extract those features from the runoff that are not stemming from the meteorological data, i.e. landscape features. Of course, this assumption is probably not completely true, and even if it were, the result of the training of the whole Autoencoder might still lead to a certain degree of redundancy, i.e. certain meteorological or climate features might be encoded even though the decoder has direct access to this information. We will discuss these issues more clearly in the revised version. Since we used a uni-directional LSTM, there is the possibility that the decoder does not utilise all the available climate data. Therefore, we are planning to feed this data separately to the decoder (future work).
The discussion around GR4J requires some improvement. It does not actually compare the results to model parameters (either calibrated or estimated based on a priori information), so it remains a qualitative discussion on how certain conceptual parameters relate to the learnt features. It would be much more convincing if some analysis was performed using GR4J to actually show that (a) the GR4J parameters are indeed related to the features (or signatures) discussed (essentially a sensitivity analysis) and (b) whether parameters calibrated to the catchments studied here relate to the extracted features (which would require calibrating GR4J to all the catchments).
We acknowledge the need for improvement in the discussion regarding the relationships between learnt features and conceptual model parameters. To address this, we plan to calibrate the GR4J model using the CAMELS dataset and conduct a correlation analysis between the model parameters and the learnt features. This will allow for a more robust assessment of the relationships between the model parameters and the learnt features, providing valuable insights into the underlying hydrological processes. Thank you for highlighting this aspect, and we will try to incorporate these analyses into our future work to enhance the discussion.
Minor comments
- I was wondering if there is a way to explain more tangibly what the learnt features are, especially for people not familiar with ENCA etc.? How do they relate to signatures (typically single numbers)?
- This is a very good question. So far only correlation analysis, Future work: nonlinear mappings to (i) parameters of conceptual models (ii) known static features.
- Figure 1: estimated Q looks almost like observed Q: is the model so good or is this the same graph?
- Yes it is exactly the same figure, but it is meant to be the reconstructed runoff. We will correct it for the next iteration.
- The quality of the figures (e.g. Figure 2) is sometimes a bit poor.
- It should read topographical and not topological in Table 1.
- Yes sorry, we will correct it.
- l.209 and elsewhere: “collected by experts” might be a bit misleading. Many of those attributes are from continental or global maps, which are of course derived by experts (e.g. in soil surveys) but perhaps not with the idea of explaining catchment response.
- Maybe better: “known attributes” here .
- Figure 6: are these absolute correlations or why are they >0?
- Yes, absolutely. We will clarify it.
- l.222: “does now exceed” should that be “not exceed”?
- Yes sorry, we will correct it.
- l.230 and elsewhere: I wouldn’t say that NSE>0 means “success”, see also major comments.
- We should write “success a la Kratzert” (Kratzert et al., 2019) where also this definition was used. Otherwise we agree that a NSE of zero does indicate a good performance.
- Figure 7: the maps are very small and instead could be shown below each other. They also need to be labelled more clearly, e.g. a, b, c for the subpanels. This is true for many other plots as well.
- Figure 8: the axes should be labelled. The standardization also makes it a bit difficult to interpret what we see. Might here be an easier way to show this? May a plot of BFI vs. aridity (potentially coloured according to a third variable), with circles around the 15 catchments?
- We apologise for the quality of this and other figures. We will revise them carefully for the next iteration.
- The GR4J groundwater exchange coefficient is a tricky parameter, because it may account for all sorts of water balance problems that might not necessarily relate to groundwater exchanges. This could be discussed somewhere around l.315 that contains a similar discussion on mass balance enforcement in LSTMs.
- Yes absolutely !
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC2
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CC2: 'Comment on hess-2024-47', Weibo Liu, 16 Mar 2024
This article utilized an explicit noise conditional autoencoder (ENCA) along with meteorological forcings to mimic the time series of streamflow. The model's performance was compared to state-of-the-art models. Subsequently, the relatively small number of features was determined using an intrinsic dimension estimator. Furthermore, the relevant learnt features were correlated with static catchment attributes. Finally, the learned features and GR4J parameters were discussed. It's an interesting work for me. However, I have some comments about this work:
General Comments:
1. Section 3.2: This study showed the Spearman correlation matrix of the principal components of relevant features for ENCA-3 in Fig. 6, as well as for ENCA-4, ENCA-5, and ENCA-27 in Figures E2, E3, and E4. Why wasn't ENCA-2 included? Approximately a dozen catchments were improved from ENCA-2 to ENCA-3, notably those with high aridity indexes (AIs). However, the first and second principal components of ENCA-3 have high Spearman correlation coefficients for almost all of these catchment attributes (baseflow indices, AIs, and Q95). Thus, I am interested in understanding the improvements from ENCA-2 to ENCA-3, which can be interpreted using the Spearman correlation matrix.
2. Section 3.3: It's intriguing to draw a comparison between the learnt features and the parameters of hydrologcial models, and the analysis included sounds reasonable as well. However, such discussions appear somewhat subjective. I suggest some additional experiments, such as performing a correlation analysis between the learnt features in this work and the calibrated parameters of the hydrological model, or delving a little further into this component of the work.Specific Comments:
1. Equation 1: The NSE seems like to be different from the original Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency in Nash and Sutcliffe (1970), of which the qsim,t in the denominator should be qobs,t.
2. Figure 2: The 'Gride' above the subfigures should be 'GRIDE'.
3. Figure 3: What do the whiskers of the boxplots mean? 5% and 95% quantiles, or quartile plus 1.5IQR, or alternative interpretations? I suggest making this clear. Besides, The judgement of several models appeared to be primarily concerned with outliers. However, for example, the 25% - 75% quantile of ENCA-2 seems lower than that of CAAM. In this regard, CAAM seems to be more similar to ENCA-3 or even ENCA-5.
4. Line 176: 'asses' should be 'assess'.References
Nash, J. and Sutcliffe, J. (1970). River flow forecasting through conceptual models part i — a discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology, 10(3):282–290.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-CC2 -
AC3: 'Reply on CC2', Alberto Bassi, 03 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters.
This article utilized an explicit noise conditional autoencoder (ENCA) along with meteorological forcings to mimic the time series of streamflow. The model's performance was compared to state-of-the-art models. Subsequently, the relatively small number of features was determined using an intrinsic dimension estimator. Furthermore, the relevant learnt features were correlated with static catchment attributes. Finally, the learned features and GR4J parameters were discussed. It's an interesting work for me. However, I have some comments about this work:
General Comments:
1. Section 3.2: This study showed the Spearman correlation matrix of the principal components of relevant features for ENCA-3 in Fig. 6, as well as for ENCA-4, ENCA-5, and ENCA-27 in Figures E2, E3, and E4. Why wasn't ENCA-2 included? Approximately a dozen catchments were improved from ENCA-2 to ENCA-3, notably those with high aridity indexes (AIs). However, the first and second principal components of ENCA-3 have high Spearman correlation coefficients for almost all of these catchment attributes (baseflow indices, AIs, and Q95). Thus, I am interested in understanding the improvements from ENCA-2 to ENCA-3, which can be interpreted using the Spearman correlation matrix.While we appreciate your interest in understanding the improvements from ENCA-2 to ENCA-3 through the Spearman correlation matrix, we believe that inserting the correlation matrix for ENCA-2 may not provide additional insights beyond what is already captured by the first two features of ENCA-3. These features exhibit high correlation coefficients with relevant catchment attributes such as baseflow indices, aridity indexes, and Q95. However, to better illustrate the improvements between ENCA-2 and ENCA-3, we suggest referring to Figures 4 and 5, which present the model performance metrics (e.g., NSE) for both ENCA versions. These figures provide a more direct comparison of the model performance and highlight the enhancements achieved in ENCA-3 compared to ENCA-2. We hope this clarifies the rationale behind our approach, and we appreciate your feedback on this matter.
2. Section 3.3: It's intriguing to draw a comparison between the learnt features and the parameters of hydrologcial models, and the analysis included sounds reasonable as well. However, such discussions appear somewhat subjective. I suggest some additional experiments, such as performing a correlation analysis between the learnt features in this work and the calibrated parameters of the hydrological model, or delving a little further into this component of the work.
Thank you for your insightful suggestion. We agree that further analysis is warranted to better understand the relationship between the learnt features and the calibrated parameters of hydrological models. In future work, we plan to conduct a correlation analysis between the learnt features extracted in this study and the calibrated parameters of the GR4J model.
Specific Comments:
- Equation 1: The NSE seems like to be different from the original Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency in Nash and Sutcliffe (1970), of which the qsim,t in the denominator should be qobs,t.
Yes it is a typo, it should be the original NSE version. - Figure 2: The 'Gride' above the subfigures should be 'GRIDE'.
Thank you, noted. We will revise this (in particular) and the other poor figures for the next iteration. - Figure 3: What do the whiskers of the boxplots mean? 5% and 95% quantiles, or quartile plus 1.5IQR, or alternative interpretations? I suggest making this clear. Besides, The judgement of several models appeared to be primarily concerned with outliers. However, for example, the 25% - 75% quantile of ENCA-2 seems lower than that of CAAM. In this regard, CAAM seems to be more similar to ENCA-3 or even ENCA-5.
Yes the whiskers mean the 5% and 95 % quantile. We will clarify this aspect for the next iteration. You are right that the biggest differences in terms of NSE are observed for outliers when the number of latent features is greater than 2. However, from ENCA-1 to ENCA-2 we also observe a neat difference in the bulk, suggesting one learnt features is not enough to encapsulate the information contained in the straemflow. It is true that ENCA-2 quantiles 25/75 are more similar to ENCA-5. (For the next iteration, it would be maybe easier to visualise a metric distance between NSE distributions instead of the boxplots.) - Line 176: 'asses' should be 'assess'. Yes thanks, noted.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC3 - Equation 1: The NSE seems like to be different from the original Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency in Nash and Sutcliffe (1970), of which the qsim,t in the denominator should be qobs,t.
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AC3: 'Reply on CC2', Alberto Bassi, 03 Apr 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on hess-2024-47', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Mar 2024
General Comments
The authors developed a ENCA -based method to extract relevant physio-geographic and climatic catchment features that are still able to well reproduce the observed discharge time series from 568 catchment of the CAMELS data.
The paper is in my opinion highly relevant given the current developments in using KI in Catchment Hydrology and contributes with some novel aspects. It is generally well structured, compactly written losing relevant information and is easy to read. I belief therefore the manuscript is well suited for publication in the HESS journal.
Some comments/suggestion that I believe would improve the manuscript and that should be addressed before final publication is the following:
- In line 119 you define the output of the encoder as “relevant landscape features” – I would mention that it is technically a vector with N numbers (where the derivation of setting/determining setting of N is explain later).
- Concerning the ENCA process – I see the problem/issue that the derived latent features will be strongly influenced by the characteristic (Bias, variability, etc.) of the meteorological data. While in this paper only 1 dataset is used, I would like to recommend a study by Lehmann et al. 2022 who analysed 1600 of different meteorological data products (for Eta, P, Q) in comparison to GRACE data. In order to examine the robustness of the approach presented here – I would like to see how, consistent the latent features will be estimated under different “quality” od data.
- I would put the technical formulations for the GRIDE estimator in an appendix and replace it by a more illustrative description and figure! The analysis in section 2.3 was difficult to follow.
- Gupta et al. 2009 (J. Hydrol. 377, 80-91) have shown, that for optimal NSE estimates, the variance of the observations will be systematically underestimated in the predictions!
- Section 2.5 – I would like to see a nice graph/figure where the latent feature reduction/followed by PCA and correlation analyses with catchment characteristics is given. Is there any attempt done to analyse any kind of non-linear dependencies between latent features and catchment characteristics?
- Why is it so important to reduce on the minimum number of latent features? We see that with each feature the performance is better (even though increasing less, and less). Is it importance of feature authors are interested? What are the consequences now?
Minor Changes:
- L3: Number and types of signatures - could you 2-3 examples for types of signatures, here.
- Table 1 is hard to read
- L214/215: I do not understand this statement
- Figure 7: More heading – what do the colours mean?
- Figure 8: what does “relevant” mean here?
- Table C1: define bs
I feel, the manuscript has in general the potential to be a valuable contribution to HESS, however, questions and issues raised in the general comments would need to be addressed and discussed to a significant part before final acceptance.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-RC2 -
AC4: 'Reply on RC2', Alberto Bassi, 03 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters.
Genral comments
The authors developed a ENCA -based method to extract relevant physio-geographic and climatic catchment features that are still able to well reproduce the observed discharge time series from 568 catchment of the CAMELS data.
The paper is in my opinion highly relevant given the current developments in using KI in Catchment Hydrology and contributes with some novel aspects. It is generally well structured, compactly written losing relevant information and is easy to read. I belief therefore the manuscript is well suited for publication in the HESS journal.
Thank you !
Some comments/suggestion that I believe would improve the manuscript and that should be addressed before final publication is the following:
- In line 119 you define the output of the encoder as “relevant landscape features” – I would mention that it is technically a vector with N numbers (where the derivation of setting/determining setting of N is explain later).
- Thank you, we agree that it would make the text clearer to specify that we the encoder learns a vector of features for each catchment.
- Concerning the ENCA process – I see the problem/issue that the derived latent features will be strongly influenced by the characteristic (Bias, variability, etc.) of the meteorological data. While in this paper only 1 dataset is used, I would like to recommend a study by Lehmann et al. 2022 who analysed 1600 of different meteorological data products (for Eta, P, Q) in comparison to GRACE data. In order to examine the robustness of the approach presented here – I would like to see how, consistent the latent features will be estimated under different “quality” of data.
- Thank you for bringing up this important consideration. Exploring the robustness of the ENCA approach to different meteorological data products, as highlighted by Lehmann et al. (2022), indeed seems like an intriguing direction for future investigation. While we acknowledge the potential influence of meteorological data characteristics on the derived latent features, we currently focus on analyzing the performance and implications of our approach using the dataset available in this study. However, we appreciate your suggestion and plan to explore the robustness of the ENCA method to varying data qualities in future work.
- I would put the technical formulations for the GRIDE estimator in an appendix and replace it by a more illustrative description and figure! The analysis in section 2.3 was difficult to follow.
- Yes, we agree with your assessment. The technical formulations in section 2.3 are indeed dense and may be difficult to follow. As suggested, we plan to simplify the explanation and supplement it with a figure to enhance clarity.
- Gupta et al. 2009 (J. Hydrol. 377, 80-91) have shown, that for optimal NSE estimates, the variance of the observations will be systematically underestimated in the predictions!
- Thank you for the reference, we will add it to the manuscript.
- Section 2.5 – I would like to see a nice graph/figure where the latent feature reduction/followed by PCA and correlation analyses with catchment characteristics is given. Is there any attempt done to analyse any kind of non-linear dependencies between latent features and catchment characteristics?
- It is a very interesting question. We plan to address to find a non-linear map between learnt features and known attributes in future work (e.g. Glielmo et al., 2022)
- Why is it so important to reduce on the minimum number of latent features? We see that with each feature the performance is better (even though increasing less, and less). Is it importance of feature authors are interested? What are the consequences now?
- We acknowledge that increasing the number of latent features generally leads to improved model performance, albeit with diminishing returns. While there is no strict requirement to minimize the number of latent features, we find it noteworthy that there is a significant improvement in model performance between 2 and 3 learnt features. However, as the number of features (N) increases beyond this point, the performance gains tend to be marginal. We agree that the cutoff for the number of features is somewhat arbitrary. However, it is interesting to note a strong dimensionality reduction of the learnt features concerning runoff (Q) and the static attributes. This reduction suggests that the model is effectively capturing the most relevant information from the input attributes, leading to improved performance with a relatively small number of features. It is natural to question why the model selects only 2 or 3 relevant features out of the 27 attributes fed to CAAM. Further investigation into the optimal number of features and their relationship to model performance could provide valuable insights into the underlying hydrological processes and model representation.
- Minor Changes:
- L3: Number and types of signatures - could you 2-3 examples for types of signatures, here.
- Sure, we will add them!
- Table 1 is hard to read
- We absolutely agree, we will reformat this table.
- L214/215: I do not understand this statement
- Standardisation is done in two different ways (L129) such that maybe the magnitude of the learnt features fed to the decoder of ENCA is different from that of the known attributes fed to CAAM. This can maybe cause a different reconstructed variability. This is however just an hypothesis and requires more work to be verified.
- Figure 7: More heading – what do the colours mean?
- We apologise for the lack of labels and colour legend. We will add it for the next iteration. The colors here represent the magnitude of the learnt features.
- Figure 8: what does “relevant” mean here?
- The relevant landscape features found by ENCA (L119-120)
- Table C1: define bs
- Yes thank you! We will correct it.
I feel, the manuscript has in general the potential to be a valuable contribution to HESS, however, questions and issues raised in the general comments would need to be addressed and discussed to a significant part before final acceptance.
Thank you for you comments and feedback !
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC4
-
RC3: 'Comment on hess-2024-47', Daniel Klotz, 22 Mar 2024
This contribution explores the creation of learned streamflow representations with an autoencoder based approach. However, I do find the approach very, very cool and do therefore hope that HESS accepts the paper. I do just have a single major point. Alas, I do fear that this point will result in a lot of work for the authors (sorry). Additional, I have a surprising amount of smaller comments. In this regard, I would like to especially point out that the quality of the figure is at time mediocre to bad, and I would wish that the senior author takes more care in proofing these simple things before handing in the manuscript. Reviewers that do not like the basic idea could easily use these superficialities to bombard the overall work. Given these two points I feel obliged to propose a major revisions. But, I do hope that my comments help improve the manuscript so that it becomes HESS ready asap.
Major comment
My main concern with the paper is the lack of context for the results. Due to the lack of baselines and reference points I was able to understand what the results actually imply. I do not know if it is impossible as such --- but I did read the comments from the other reviews and got the feeling that they had a similar problem (but where not able to address it). Thus, I predict that many readers will be lost. I will now give three examples for what I mean:Example 1: The way the models are setup is rather unique in hydrology and very different from what most readers are currently used to. If I understood what you are doing correctly (which is not easy in the first place). You have around 568 samples of length 15*365=5478 (because you use 15 years of daily data; see: L. 110). For comparison. The most basic machine learning dataset, called MNIST, has 6000 samples of length 28*28=784, and the model trained in Kratzert et al. (2019) is trained in a many-to-one setting resulting in 531*15*365=2907225 samples. Also, the models in Kratzert et al. (2019) are trained for 30 epochs, while the autoencoders in the current publications are trained for 2000 epochs (L. 173).
Further, the autoencoders are models with much more capacity than the models that are commonly used for the reference datasets that I just mentioned. To give a rough estimation: The models in Kratzert et al. (2019) ingest approx. 30 inputs and have a hidden size of 250 yielding roughly 260,000 parameters. In contrast, in the current paper the LSTM has the same hidden size, but ingests around 1350 inputs (neglecting the different latents from the CNN for now), which yields a magnitude more parameters. As matter of fact, roughly: 1,650,000. And here I did not even count the parameters of the fully connected part and the convolutional network.Now, counting the number of parameters and model updates is seldom useful. However, I do have to admit that I was surprised then about the lack of validation split, because I would expect that models this large trained on so few samples will easily overfit. I did therefore make a comparison run where I roughly used the settings from Kratzert et al. (2021) (which is a bit more up-to-date in terms of approach than the ones from the 2019 paper, since it uses different dynamic inputs) but the 15 years training-test split from the current paper. And, without any hyper-parameter tuning, I got a median NSE of 0.8 (And a Bias of 0.0097) after less than 20 epochs . From what I can tell this is better than any of the models presented in this paper (see e.g., Table A1). However, with the current version of the manuscript readers are not made aware of this. Currently, papers like Kratzert et al. (2021) or Klotz et al. (2022), who show current best performances/practices, are not referred to at all and I fear that most will not know such things (and probably not look in the corresponding reference). Even I had too look up the reference results and train a model on CAMELS to get a feeling for the difference in performance --- and I worked with this data for a long period of time now. I think it would be good to provide such results as points of reference for readers. But, I think you should also go further and check if you have an overfitting problem that might corrupt your results; or at least discuss this potential problem in your methodology.
Example 2: In Figure 6 you show a correlation matrix between the PCA components of ENCA-3 and the catchment attributes. These attributes include the hydrological statics that Kratzert et al. (2019) and you did not use (as a side note: I am not sure if the runoff ration and the streamflow elasticity should be considered climate features). The reason that Kratzert et al (2019) did not use these features is that the model therein is supposed to be a simulation model with the capacity to work everywhere --- even in ungauged settings where such information is not available. I do, however, argue that the current version of the manuscript does not tell readers enough gauge their importance. First: if you argue that the learned features encompass the hydrological attributes then it would be necessary to have references that show how models trained with these attributes actually perform (this can be easily shown by showing the performance of one reference with all the attribtues (including the hyrological ones) and another with just the hydrological ones). Second: To me it seems that the correlation of the PCA components with the static attributes is not enough to judge anything, since I do not know how the static attributes are correlated within themselves. For example: I would expect that is correlated with the Low Q Frequency or the runoff-ratio with the Q Mean. Alas, this is not shown in any figure and readers are in the unsatisfying situation that they have to guess, compute these themselves or (and I fear this will happen to most) will remain ignorant of this aspect of the analysis. The remedy is also so very simple: Show the spearman correlation matrix of statics with themselves as a point of reference.
Minor comments
Figures
Please adjust the the font-size of all figures. I am not saying that all figures need to have the same font-size (that would be pedantic), but some of the figures are plotted with font-size that seems to be made for posters or presentations (e.g., Fig. 6 or Fig. E1), while others are very difficult to read on A4 (e.g., Figure B1). On top of that some Fig. 2 and Fig. D1 have very bad quality and should be provided in higher resolution. I will now go through all figures of the main manuscript in detail, but I’d like to mention that the ones in the Appendix would also benefit from some love.Figure 1. This is a great figure. I really like it and it helped me to understand the setup greatly. As a matter of fact, it is the only figure I have nothing to complain about.
Figure 2. Three things: (i) I think it would be good to only use a single figure heading here. The right-hand side of the figure does not profit from having “Gride Evolution” written on top of it. (ii) In the main text you write “GRIDE”, but here you use “Gride”. (iii) Please show all restarts and ENCA models. The plateau that you mention the main text is only really visible for ENCA-27 (left-plot) and there is enough space to show the full information if you make the plot a bit smaller. Or, if you do not like that you could provide the additional plot the appendix (like you do with the correlation matrices). As it is now readers have to trust your statement (and I am sure it is true), when you could just show it.
Table 1. The whole table is extremely wrapped and difficult to read. I think its worth to format it nicer and maybe use two pages if necessary or move it to the Appendix.
Figure 3. I like to propose to add vertical line between the reference models and the ENCA-n (with n > 0) models. That way the plot would become visually much clearer.
Figure 4 and Figure 5. I think the coloring is off. The figure caption says that the color indicates the difference per catchment clipped in [-1,1]. Thus, grey points should be on the 1:1 line. However, at the clipping position s they are not. For example, in Figure 4 the point at [-1,-1] is colored in dark red (indicating that ENCA-3 performs much better than CAAM for this basin). My believe that the coloring happens before the clipping here, however this is nowhere described so I cannot be sure.
Figure 6. See Major comment.
Figure 7. It is unclear what this is. There exist principal components for multiple restarts and readers do not know what restart from Fig. 6 is used here (or whether this is a new run). The figure itself also does not explain what the color-coding is which maps shows which component. I can, of course, infer that the coding is the magnitude of the component (without showing the value range), and the ordering is from left-to-right); but this should not be a leap f faith on part of the reader.
Figure 8. It is difficult to see anything from this figure.
Text
L. 38-39. Isn’t the current analysis also based on predefined model assumptions (just less so)? Like, e.g., that a CNN is appropriated to encode the runoff and that an LSTM is appropriate as decoder.L.49. Technically the first study shows that data-driven approach outperforms process-based model in prediction accuracy. No “might” needed.
L. 50. becuase -> because
L. 50-51. I disagree that sure if the results from Kratzert et al. (2019) suggest that information in the catchment attributes is what was previously not utilized fir streamflow predictions.
L.56. I do not understand what is novel about the architecture. The architecture itself seems to be just a conditional auto-encoder. Maybe I am missing something here though (in which case it would be good if you explain it somewhere).
L.58ff. I argue that it is unclear at this point what a “stochastic model simulator” is. I had to rad the referenced publication by Albert et al. (2002) to figure that out. Therein the system innovations are noise, so I kind off see, how it makes sense. In this study, however, the system innovations are given by meteorological forcing instead of noise. As I see it is not necessary to use this terminology here and the whole paragraph can be shortened, simplified, and made clearer without it. If there is no good argument which I missed, I would therefore propose to avoid it here and then introduce it only in section 2.2.
L.70. You do not benchmark your models at all.
L. 70-71. Long Short Term Memory -> Long Short-Term Memory
L.90 I do not understand the reference to ungauged basins in the first place. Why not use references to gauged basins that use a time-split like you do in this manuscript? Especially, since in that setting it has also been shown that LSTMs tend to outperform classical approaches.
L.91-92. For me, the claim that the resulting knowledge might become useful for ungauged catchments in the future would need a bit more discussion for me, since your approach assumes knowledge of whole hydrographs to synthesize static attributes.
L. 111 The statement that the memory cells of the LSTM are limited by the dimension of the input layer is simply wrong. As a matter of fact, the dimension of the input layer has no influence on the number of memory cells. The hyper-parameter that defines the number of memory cells is the “size of hidden sates” or “hidden size”. Table C2 shows that you have an LSTM hidden size of 256. Hence, this study uses LSTMs with cell states vectors of size 256.
L. 117. I find this not so obvious, given that you use a data-split with validation (hence the training data can be memorized without learning to actually hand over the required information) and that the LSTM has to learn to push this information through it precisely. Checking this claim would be an interesting experiment for the Appendix and provide a useful point of reference for readers.
L. 132. I think it would be interesting if you report the batch statics somewhere (and perhaps compare them to the statics of the attributes).
Section 2.3 I would argue that GRIDE is insufficiently described here. I had to look up the original publications to see what you are doing. I would propose to either describe it on a much higher level, where you try to explain the basic idea of it (and then not introduce the additional notation and perhaps even move Figure 2 to the appendix); or to describe it in more detail so readers learn about the method from the current papers itself (still, I would then suggest to do it without the proofs).
L. 216. I think Kratzert et al. (2019) is not a good reference here, since those results are about ungauged catchments, while here we discuss a gauged setting.
L. 237f. Would be good too see if this pattern is consistent over more than just one model run. But, I can understand if you do not want to make that effort...
L. 252-253. In Fig.6 feature 1 does not seem to be much better correlated to soil attributes than to Climate attributes. Maybe adding the actual correlation values would help readers to see what you mean here.
L. 257ff. Please just show whether this collinearities exist! This can be easily checked, no? It should not be a point of discussion, but a point of analysis.
Sect. 3.3. Interesting discussion.
Sect. 4. It might be good to call the section "Conclusions and outlook" or something similar to accommodate the second part of the section. Else, I really liked the section.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-RC3 -
RC4: 'Short addendum', Daniel Klotz, 24 Mar 2024
Just a short follow-up on Example 1, from my major comment, since after some thinking it became clear to me that it is not very focused: I am aware that having less samples means that you get less parameter updates per epoch and thus it might become necessary to compensate it with training over more epochs. My point is that the setup is fairly different from the one in the reference studies and right now one cannot tell if overfitting happens or not (which then again makes it difficult to interpret the results). That is all.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-RC4 -
AC5: 'Reply on RC3', Alberto Bassi, 09 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters
This contribution explores the creation of learned streamflow representations with an autoencoder based approach. However, I do find the approach very, very cool and do therefore hope that HESS accepts the paper. I do just have a single major point. Alas, I do fear that this point will result in a lot of work for the authors (sorry). Additional, I have a surprising amount of smaller comments. In this regard, I would like to especially point out that the quality of the figure is at time mediocre to bad, and I would wish that the senior author takes more care in proofing these simple things before handing in the manuscript. Reviewers that do not like the basic idea could easily use these superficialities to bombard the overall work. Given these two points I feel obliged to propose a major revisions. But, I do hope that my comments help improve the manuscript so that it becomes HESS ready asap.
Thank you for your comments !
Major comment
My main concern with the paper is the lack of context for the results. Due to the lack of baselines and reference points I was able to understand what the results actually imply. I do not know if it is impossible as such --- but I did read the comments from the other reviews and got the feeling that they had a similar problem (but where not able to address it). Thus, I predict that many readers will be lost. I will now give three examples for what I mean:Example 1: The way the models are setup is rather unique in hydrology and very different from what most readers are currently used to. If I understood what you are doing correctly (which is not easy in the first place). You have around 568 samples of length 15*365=5478 (because you use 15 years of daily data; see: L. 110). For comparison. The most basic machine learning dataset, called MNIST, has 6000 samples of length 28*28=784, and the model trained in Kratzert et al. (2019) is trained in a many-to-one setting resulting in 531*15*365=2907225 samples. Also, the models in Kratzert et al. (2019) are trained for 30 epochs, while the autoencoders in the current publications are trained for 2000 epochs (L. 173).
You are absolutely correct, the architecture we have employed is indeed unique, making direct comparisons with models in existing literature challenging. Our aim is not to outperform state-of-the-art models but rather to extract pertinent features for runoff prediction. To facilitate comparison, we contrast ENCA with a model, CAAM, operating within the same setup but utilising catchment attributes. Our objective is to gauge the learned features against established attributes documented in the literature, necessitating a metric for runoff reconstruction evaluation. It's worth noting that we employ the same dataset as Kratzert et al. (2019), albeit with differing preprocessing approaches. Kratzert et al. (2019, 2021) augmented the dataset, repeating each sample 270 and 365 times respectively, whereas our models utilise each sample only once. Consequently, we incorporate a fully connected layer at the outset to augment model capacity. In fact, we conducted experiments (not detailed in the paper) revealing that without the fully connected layer, the resulting Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is significantly low, averaging around 0.0.
Further, the autoencoders are models with much more capacity than the models that are commonly used for the reference datasets that I just mentioned. To give a rough estimation: The models in Kratzert et al. (2019) ingest approx. 30 inputs and have a hidden size of 250 yielding roughly 260,000 parameters. In contrast, in the current paper the LSTM has the same hidden size, but ingests around 1350 inputs (neglecting the different latents from the CNN for now), which yields a magnitude more parameters. As matter of fact, roughly: 1,650,000. And here I did not even count the parameters of the fully connected part and the convolutional network.
Now, counting the number of parameters and model updates is seldom useful. However, I do have to admit that I was surprised then about the lack of validation split, because I would expect that models this large trained on so few samples will easily overfit. I did therefore make a comparison run where I roughly used the settings from Kratzert et al. (2021) (which is a bit more up-to-date in terms of approach than the ones from the 2019 paper, since it uses different dynamic inputs) but the 15 years training-test split from the current paper. And, without any hyper-parameter tuning, I got a median NSE of 0.8 (And a Bias of 0.0097) after less than 20 epochs . From what I can tell this is better than any of the models presented in this paper (see e.g., Table A1). However, with the current version of the manuscript readers are not made aware of this. Currently, papers like Kratzert et al. (2021) or Klotz et al. (2022), who show current best performances/practices, are not referred to at all and I fear that most will not know such things (and probably not look in the corresponding reference). Even I had too look up the reference results and train a model on CAMELS to get a feeling for the difference in performance --- and I worked with this data for a long period of time now. I think it would be good to provide such results as points of reference for readers. But, I think you should also go further and check if you have an overfitting problem that might corrupt your results; or at least discuss this potential problem in your methodology.
You are correct in noting that the autoencoders possess significantly more capacity compared to commonly used models for reference datasets. The total number of parameters is indeed slightly larger than 3 Millions, while the total number of training samples is 531x5478= 2 908 818, making the network slightly over-parameterized, and potentially leading to overfitting. In order to address this problem, we conducted explicit validation across a different time period: training was conducted using data from the first 15 years, with validation performed on the subsequent 15 years using early stopping (with patience of 2000 epochs) with a maximum of 20 000 epochs. This temporal split ensures that the model's performance is evaluated on unseen data. Moreover, the models were regularised with dropout between layers (with probability=0.4) and the training was stopped with early stopping. We did not consider the test split necessary since we did not perform hyper-parameter selection.
However, even if the models may not overfit the training dataset, the models chosen are the ones with best validation loss (or NSE). This way, we implicitly introduced a bias. In this case a test split would be therefore necessary to obtain unbiased estimates of the NSE values. Nevertheless, we already conducted experiments where the models selected are the last trained models after 10 000 epochs (thus without relying on the validation split and similarly to what was done by Kratzert et al., 2019). This second approach shows similar results to the first one, since the training/validation split was the same and the models converged around 10 000 epochs also in the first approach. This way, the test split is no longer necessary.
Note, however, that this good but low NSE values (compared to state-of-the-art approaches) can also arise due to the long sequences fed to the LSTM decoder, which in our case is 5748, while in the referenced literature this number is significantly lower. We explicitly selected such long sequences in order to extract long-term climate information that cannot be detectable when the fed sequences are on the order of one year (Kratzert et al, 2021) or less (Kratzert et al, 2019).
Example 2: In Figure 6 you show a correlation matrix between the PCA components of ENCA-3 and the catchment attributes. These attributes include the hydrological statics that Kratzert et al. (2019) and you did not use (as a side note: I am not sure if the runoff ration and the streamflow elasticity should be considered climate features). The reason that Kratzert et al (2019) did not use these features is that the model therein is supposed to be a simulation model with the capacity to work everywhere --- even in ungauged settings where such information is not available. I do, however, argue that the current version of the manuscript does not tell readers enough gauge their importance. First: if you argue that the learned features encompass the hydrological attributes then it would be necessary to have references that show how models trained with these attributes actually perform (this can be easily shown by showing the performance of one reference with all the attribtues (including the hyrological ones) and another with just the hydrological ones). Second: To me it seems that the correlation of the PCA components with the static attributes is not enough to judge anything, since I do not know how the static attributes are correlated within themselves. For example: I would expect that is correlated with the Low Q Frequency or the runoff-ratio with the Q Mean. Alas, this is not shown in any figure and readers are in the unsatisfying situation that they have to guess, compute these themselves or (and I fear this will happen to most) will remain ignorant of this aspect of the analysis. The remedy is also so very simple: Show the spearman correlation matrix of statics with themselves as a point of reference.
Regarding the placement of runoff ratio and stream ELAS, we acknowledge your point. Indeed, they share characteristics of both climate attributes and hydrological signatures.
We argue that learnt features encompass catchment attributes (which do not include hydrological signatures). We utilise the hydrological signatures solely for the purpose of comparing the learned features and do not incorporate them into the training of our Catchment Attribute-Augmented Model (CAAM).
Additionally, your suggestion regarding the correlation matrix of static attributes with themselves is well-taken. We agree that this information is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the analysis. To remedy this, we will include the Spearman correlation matrix of static attributes in the appendix of the revised manuscript, providing readers with a clear reference point.
Minor comments
Figures
Please adjust the the font-size of all figures. I am not saying that all figures need to have the same font-size (that would be pedantic), but some of the figures are plotted with font-size that seems to be made for posters or presentations (e.g., Fig. 6 or Fig. E1), while others are very difficult to read on A4 (e.g., Figure B1). On top of that some Fig. 2 and Fig. D1 have very bad quality and should be provided in higher resolution. I will now go through all figures of the main manuscript in detail, but I’d like to mention that the ones in the Appendix would also benefit from some love.Figure 1. This is a great figure. I really like it and it helped me to understand the setup greatly. As a matter of fact, it is the only figure I have nothing to complain about.
Thank you !
Figure 2. Three things: (i) I think it would be good to only use a single figure heading here. The right-hand side of the figure does not profit from having “Gride Evolution” written on top of it. (ii) In the main text you write “GRIDE”, but here you use “Gride”. (iii) Please show all restarts and ENCA models. The plateau that you mention the main text is only really visible for ENCA-27 (left-plot) and there is enough space to show the full information if you make the plot a bit smaller. Or, if you do not like that you could provide the additional plot the appendix (like you do with the correlation matrices). As it is now readers have to trust your statement (and I am sure it is true), when you could just show it.
You are absolutely right! We will include all the restarts in the updated version.
Table 1. The whole table is extremely wrapped and difficult to read. I think its worth to format it nicer and maybe use two pages if necessary or move it to the Appendix.
Thank you, noted ! It will be improved for the revised manuscript.
Figure 3. I like to propose to add vertical line between the reference models and the ENCA-n (with n > 0) models. That way the plot would become visually much clearer.
It is true, we will add it in the revised version.
Figure 4 and Figure 5. I think the coloring is off. The figure caption says that the color indicates the difference per catchment clipped in [-1,1]. Thus, grey points should be on the 1:1 line. However, at the clipping position s they are not. For example, in Figure 4 the point at [-1,-1] is colored in dark red (indicating that ENCA-3 performs much better than CAAM for this basin). My believe that the coloring happens before the clipping here, however this is nowhere described so I cannot be sure.
Yes you are right, in Figure 4 we first colour and then clip. We will explain that more clearly in the revised version.
Figure 6. See Major comment.
Figure 7. It is unclear what this is. There exist principal components for multiple restarts and readers do not know what restart from Fig. 6 is used here (or whether this is a new run). The figure itself also does not explain what the color-coding is which maps shows which component. I can, of course, infer that the coding is the magnitude of the component (without showing the value range), and the ordering is from left-to-right); but this should not be a leap f faith on part of the reader.
You are right ! They are the principal components (ordered from the left) of the first restart. We agree that this figure needs the labels and the colour-coding explanation. We will add it into the revised version of the manuscript.
Figure 8. It is difficult to see anything from this figure.
L. 38-39. Isn’t the current analysis also based on predefined model assumptions (just less so)? Like, e.g., that a CNN is appropriated to encode the runoff and that an LSTM is appropriate as decoder.
L.49. Technically the first study shows that data-driven approach outperforms process-based model in prediction accuracy. No “might” needed.
Right, noted !
- 50. becuase -> because
- 50-51. I disagree that sure if the results from Kratzert et al. (2019) suggest that information in the catchment attributes is what was previously not utilized fir streamflow predictions.
We mean that catchment attributes encapsulate information not previously utilised in conceptual models.
L.56. I do not understand what is novel about the architecture. The architecture itself seems to be just a conditional auto-encoder. Maybe I am missing something here though (in which case it would be good if you explain it somewhere).
Rephrase: first time used in hydrology
L.58ff. I argue that it is unclear at this point what a “stochastic model simulator” is. I had to rad the referenced publication by Albert et al. (2002) to figure that out. Therein the system innovations are noise, so I kind off see, how it makes sense. In this study, however, the system innovations are given by meteorological forcing instead of noise. As I see it is not necessary to use this terminology here and the whole paragraph can be shortened, simplified, and made clearer without it. If there is no good argument which I missed, I would therefore propose to avoid it here and then introduce it only in section 2.2.
Ok, noted !
L.70. You do not benchmark your models at all.
Against our CAAM.
- 70-71. Long Short Term Memory -> Long Short-Term Memory
Thank you, noted !
L.90 I do not understand the reference to ungauged basins in the first place. Why not use references to gauged basins that use a time-split like you do in this manuscript? Especially, since in that setting it has also been shown that LSTMs tend to outperform classical approaches.
You are right, it is a typo that we will rephrase.
L.91-92. For me, the claim that the resulting knowledge might become useful for ungauged catchments in the future would need a bit more discussion for me, since your approach assumes knowledge of whole hydrographs to synthesize static attributes.
Thanks for your valuable insight. With this approach we can learn which attributes are more important and then use them in the ungauged setting. But we agree than it needs more explanation.
- 111 The statement that the memory cells of the LSTM are limited by the dimension of the input layer is simply wrong. As a matter of fact, the dimension of the input layer has no influence on the number of memory cells. The hyper-parameter that defines the number of memory cells is the “size of hidden sates” or “hidden size”. Table C2 shows that you have an LSTM hidden size of 256. Hence, this study uses LSTMs with cell states vectors of size 256.
You are right. Sorry for the confusion, we meant the network capacity.
- 117. I find this not so obvious, given that you use a data-split with validation (hence the training data can be memorized without learning to actually hand over the required information) and that the LSTM has to learn to push this information through it precisely. Checking this claim would be an interesting experiment for the Appendix and provide a useful point of reference for readers.
It is indeed interesting and we will try to add it into the next version.
- 132. I think it would be interesting if you report the batch statics somewhere (and perhaps compare them to the statics of the attributes).
What do you mean by batch statics?
Section 2.3 I would argue that GRIDE is insufficiently described here. I had to look up the original publications to see what you are doing. I would propose to either describe it on a much higher level, where you try to explain the basic idea of it (and then not introduce the additional notation and perhaps even move Figure 2 to the appendix); or to describe it in more detail so readers learn about the method from the current papers itself (still, I would then suggest to do it without the proofs).
- 216. I think Kratzert et al. (2019) is not a good reference here, since those results are about ungauged catchments, while here we discuss a gauged setting.
In Kratzert et al (2019) there are however a lot of results regarding the ungauged settings, what were called “global” models.
- 237f. Would be good too see if this pattern is consistent over more than just one model run. But, I can understand if you do not want to make that effort...
Thank you for your comment. Could you please be a little bit more specific on the clarification needed?
- 252-253. In Fig.6 feature 1 does not seem to be much better correlated to soil attributes than to Climate attributes. Maybe adding the actual correlation values would help readers to see what you mean here.
Thank you for your comment. It would indeed help, even if however should be already clear from the colour. We will add the actual values for more clairity.
- 257ff. Please just show whether this collinearities exist! This can be easily checked, no? It should not be a point of discussion, but a point of analysis.
You are right, we will analyse this collinearities.
Sect. 3.3. Interesting discussion.
Sect. 4. It might be good to call the section "Conclusions and outlook" or something similar to accommodate the second part of the section. Else, I really liked the section.Agree, we will rephrase
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC5
-
AC5: 'Reply on RC3', Alberto Bassi, 09 Apr 2024
-
AC5: 'Reply on RC3', Alberto Bassi, 09 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters
This contribution explores the creation of learned streamflow representations with an autoencoder based approach. However, I do find the approach very, very cool and do therefore hope that HESS accepts the paper. I do just have a single major point. Alas, I do fear that this point will result in a lot of work for the authors (sorry). Additional, I have a surprising amount of smaller comments. In this regard, I would like to especially point out that the quality of the figure is at time mediocre to bad, and I would wish that the senior author takes more care in proofing these simple things before handing in the manuscript. Reviewers that do not like the basic idea could easily use these superficialities to bombard the overall work. Given these two points I feel obliged to propose a major revisions. But, I do hope that my comments help improve the manuscript so that it becomes HESS ready asap.
Thank you for your comments !
Major comment
My main concern with the paper is the lack of context for the results. Due to the lack of baselines and reference points I was able to understand what the results actually imply. I do not know if it is impossible as such --- but I did read the comments from the other reviews and got the feeling that they had a similar problem (but where not able to address it). Thus, I predict that many readers will be lost. I will now give three examples for what I mean:Example 1: The way the models are setup is rather unique in hydrology and very different from what most readers are currently used to. If I understood what you are doing correctly (which is not easy in the first place). You have around 568 samples of length 15*365=5478 (because you use 15 years of daily data; see: L. 110). For comparison. The most basic machine learning dataset, called MNIST, has 6000 samples of length 28*28=784, and the model trained in Kratzert et al. (2019) is trained in a many-to-one setting resulting in 531*15*365=2907225 samples. Also, the models in Kratzert et al. (2019) are trained for 30 epochs, while the autoencoders in the current publications are trained for 2000 epochs (L. 173).
You are absolutely correct, the architecture we have employed is indeed unique, making direct comparisons with models in existing literature challenging. Our aim is not to outperform state-of-the-art models but rather to extract pertinent features for runoff prediction. To facilitate comparison, we contrast ENCA with a model, CAAM, operating within the same setup but utilising catchment attributes. Our objective is to gauge the learned features against established attributes documented in the literature, necessitating a metric for runoff reconstruction evaluation. It's worth noting that we employ the same dataset as Kratzert et al. (2019), albeit with differing preprocessing approaches. Kratzert et al. (2019, 2021) augmented the dataset, repeating each sample 270 and 365 times respectively, whereas our models utilise each sample only once. Consequently, we incorporate a fully connected layer at the outset to augment model capacity. In fact, we conducted experiments (not detailed in the paper) revealing that without the fully connected layer, the resulting Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is significantly low, averaging around 0.0.
Further, the autoencoders are models with much more capacity than the models that are commonly used for the reference datasets that I just mentioned. To give a rough estimation: The models in Kratzert et al. (2019) ingest approx. 30 inputs and have a hidden size of 250 yielding roughly 260,000 parameters. In contrast, in the current paper the LSTM has the same hidden size, but ingests around 1350 inputs (neglecting the different latents from the CNN for now), which yields a magnitude more parameters. As matter of fact, roughly: 1,650,000. And here I did not even count the parameters of the fully connected part and the convolutional network.
Now, counting the number of parameters and model updates is seldom useful. However, I do have to admit that I was surprised then about the lack of validation split, because I would expect that models this large trained on so few samples will easily overfit. I did therefore make a comparison run where I roughly used the settings from Kratzert et al. (2021) (which is a bit more up-to-date in terms of approach than the ones from the 2019 paper, since it uses different dynamic inputs) but the 15 years training-test split from the current paper. And, without any hyper-parameter tuning, I got a median NSE of 0.8 (And a Bias of 0.0097) after less than 20 epochs . From what I can tell this is better than any of the models presented in this paper (see e.g., Table A1). However, with the current version of the manuscript readers are not made aware of this. Currently, papers like Kratzert et al. (2021) or Klotz et al. (2022), who show current best performances/practices, are not referred to at all and I fear that most will not know such things (and probably not look in the corresponding reference). Even I had too look up the reference results and train a model on CAMELS to get a feeling for the difference in performance --- and I worked with this data for a long period of time now. I think it would be good to provide such results as points of reference for readers. But, I think you should also go further and check if you have an overfitting problem that might corrupt your results; or at least discuss this potential problem in your methodology.
You are correct in noting that the autoencoders possess significantly more capacity compared to commonly used models for reference datasets. The total number of parameters is indeed slightly larger than 3 Millions, while the total number of training samples is 531x5478= 2 908 818, making the network slightly over-parameterized, and potentially leading to overfitting. In order to address this problem, we conducted explicit validation across a different time period: training was conducted using data from the first 15 years, with validation performed on the subsequent 15 years using early stopping (with patience of 2000 epochs) with a maximum of 20 000 epochs. This temporal split ensures that the model's performance is evaluated on unseen data. Moreover, the models were regularised with dropout between layers (with probability=0.4) and the training was stopped with early stopping. We did not consider the test split necessary since we did not perform hyper-parameter selection.
However, even if the models may not overfit the training dataset, the models chosen are the ones with best validation loss (or NSE). This way, we implicitly introduced a bias. In this case a test split would be therefore necessary to obtain unbiased estimates of the NSE values. Nevertheless, we already conducted experiments where the models selected are the last trained models after 10 000 epochs (thus without relying on the validation split and similarly to what was done by Kratzert et al., 2019). This second approach shows similar results to the first one, since the training/validation split was the same and the models converged around 10 000 epochs also in the first approach. This way, the test split is no longer necessary.
Note, however, that this good but low NSE values (compared to state-of-the-art approaches) can also arise due to the long sequences fed to the LSTM decoder, which in our case is 5748, while in the referenced literature this number is significantly lower. We explicitly selected such long sequences in order to extract long-term climate information that cannot be detectable when the fed sequences are on the order of one year (Kratzert et al, 2021) or less (Kratzert et al, 2019).
Example 2: In Figure 6 you show a correlation matrix between the PCA components of ENCA-3 and the catchment attributes. These attributes include the hydrological statics that Kratzert et al. (2019) and you did not use (as a side note: I am not sure if the runoff ration and the streamflow elasticity should be considered climate features). The reason that Kratzert et al (2019) did not use these features is that the model therein is supposed to be a simulation model with the capacity to work everywhere --- even in ungauged settings where such information is not available. I do, however, argue that the current version of the manuscript does not tell readers enough gauge their importance. First: if you argue that the learned features encompass the hydrological attributes then it would be necessary to have references that show how models trained with these attributes actually perform (this can be easily shown by showing the performance of one reference with all the attribtues (including the hyrological ones) and another with just the hydrological ones). Second: To me it seems that the correlation of the PCA components with the static attributes is not enough to judge anything, since I do not know how the static attributes are correlated within themselves. For example: I would expect that is correlated with the Low Q Frequency or the runoff-ratio with the Q Mean. Alas, this is not shown in any figure and readers are in the unsatisfying situation that they have to guess, compute these themselves or (and I fear this will happen to most) will remain ignorant of this aspect of the analysis. The remedy is also so very simple: Show the spearman correlation matrix of statics with themselves as a point of reference.
Regarding the placement of runoff ratio and stream ELAS, we acknowledge your point. Indeed, they share characteristics of both climate attributes and hydrological signatures.
We argue that learnt features encompass catchment attributes (which do not include hydrological signatures). We utilise the hydrological signatures solely for the purpose of comparing the learned features and do not incorporate them into the training of our Catchment Attribute-Augmented Model (CAAM).
Additionally, your suggestion regarding the correlation matrix of static attributes with themselves is well-taken. We agree that this information is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the analysis. To remedy this, we will include the Spearman correlation matrix of static attributes in the appendix of the revised manuscript, providing readers with a clear reference point.
Minor comments
Figures
Please adjust the the font-size of all figures. I am not saying that all figures need to have the same font-size (that would be pedantic), but some of the figures are plotted with font-size that seems to be made for posters or presentations (e.g., Fig. 6 or Fig. E1), while others are very difficult to read on A4 (e.g., Figure B1). On top of that some Fig. 2 and Fig. D1 have very bad quality and should be provided in higher resolution. I will now go through all figures of the main manuscript in detail, but I’d like to mention that the ones in the Appendix would also benefit from some love.Figure 1. This is a great figure. I really like it and it helped me to understand the setup greatly. As a matter of fact, it is the only figure I have nothing to complain about.
Thank you !
Figure 2. Three things: (i) I think it would be good to only use a single figure heading here. The right-hand side of the figure does not profit from having “Gride Evolution” written on top of it. (ii) In the main text you write “GRIDE”, but here you use “Gride”. (iii) Please show all restarts and ENCA models. The plateau that you mention the main text is only really visible for ENCA-27 (left-plot) and there is enough space to show the full information if you make the plot a bit smaller. Or, if you do not like that you could provide the additional plot the appendix (like you do with the correlation matrices). As it is now readers have to trust your statement (and I am sure it is true), when you could just show it.
You are absolutely right! We will include all the restarts in the updated version.
Table 1. The whole table is extremely wrapped and difficult to read. I think its worth to format it nicer and maybe use two pages if necessary or move it to the Appendix.
Thank you, noted ! It will be improved for the revised manuscript.
Figure 3. I like to propose to add vertical line between the reference models and the ENCA-n (with n > 0) models. That way the plot would become visually much clearer.
It is true, we will add it in the revised version.
Figure 4 and Figure 5. I think the coloring is off. The figure caption says that the color indicates the difference per catchment clipped in [-1,1]. Thus, grey points should be on the 1:1 line. However, at the clipping position s they are not. For example, in Figure 4 the point at [-1,-1] is colored in dark red (indicating that ENCA-3 performs much better than CAAM for this basin). My believe that the coloring happens before the clipping here, however this is nowhere described so I cannot be sure.
Yes you are right, in Figure 4 we first colour and then clip. We will explain that more clearly in the revised version.
Figure 6. See Major comment.
Figure 7. It is unclear what this is. There exist principal components for multiple restarts and readers do not know what restart from Fig. 6 is used here (or whether this is a new run). The figure itself also does not explain what the color-coding is which maps shows which component. I can, of course, infer that the coding is the magnitude of the component (without showing the value range), and the ordering is from left-to-right); but this should not be a leap f faith on part of the reader.
You are right ! They are the principal components (ordered from the left) of the first restart. We agree that this figure needs the labels and the colour-coding explanation. We will add it into the revised version of the manuscript.
Figure 8. It is difficult to see anything from this figure.
L. 38-39. Isn’t the current analysis also based on predefined model assumptions (just less so)? Like, e.g., that a CNN is appropriated to encode the runoff and that an LSTM is appropriate as decoder.
L.49. Technically the first study shows that data-driven approach outperforms process-based model in prediction accuracy. No “might” needed.
Right, noted !
- 50. becuase -> because
- 50-51. I disagree that sure if the results from Kratzert et al. (2019) suggest that information in the catchment attributes is what was previously not utilized fir streamflow predictions.
We mean that catchment attributes encapsulate information not previously utilised in conceptual models.
L.56. I do not understand what is novel about the architecture. The architecture itself seems to be just a conditional auto-encoder. Maybe I am missing something here though (in which case it would be good if you explain it somewhere).
Rephrase: first time used in hydrology
L.58ff. I argue that it is unclear at this point what a “stochastic model simulator” is. I had to rad the referenced publication by Albert et al. (2002) to figure that out. Therein the system innovations are noise, so I kind off see, how it makes sense. In this study, however, the system innovations are given by meteorological forcing instead of noise. As I see it is not necessary to use this terminology here and the whole paragraph can be shortened, simplified, and made clearer without it. If there is no good argument which I missed, I would therefore propose to avoid it here and then introduce it only in section 2.2.
Ok, noted !
L.70. You do not benchmark your models at all.
Against our CAAM.
- 70-71. Long Short Term Memory -> Long Short-Term Memory
Thank you, noted !
L.90 I do not understand the reference to ungauged basins in the first place. Why not use references to gauged basins that use a time-split like you do in this manuscript? Especially, since in that setting it has also been shown that LSTMs tend to outperform classical approaches.
You are right, it is a typo that we will rephrase.
L.91-92. For me, the claim that the resulting knowledge might become useful for ungauged catchments in the future would need a bit more discussion for me, since your approach assumes knowledge of whole hydrographs to synthesize static attributes.
Thanks for your valuable insight. With this approach we can learn which attributes are more important and then use them in the ungauged setting. But we agree than it needs more explanation.
- 111 The statement that the memory cells of the LSTM are limited by the dimension of the input layer is simply wrong. As a matter of fact, the dimension of the input layer has no influence on the number of memory cells. The hyper-parameter that defines the number of memory cells is the “size of hidden sates” or “hidden size”. Table C2 shows that you have an LSTM hidden size of 256. Hence, this study uses LSTMs with cell states vectors of size 256.
You are right. Sorry for the confusion, we meant the network capacity.
- 117. I find this not so obvious, given that you use a data-split with validation (hence the training data can be memorized without learning to actually hand over the required information) and that the LSTM has to learn to push this information through it precisely. Checking this claim would be an interesting experiment for the Appendix and provide a useful point of reference for readers.
It is indeed interesting and we will try to add it into the next version.
- 132. I think it would be interesting if you report the batch statics somewhere (and perhaps compare them to the statics of the attributes).
What do you mean by batch statics?
Section 2.3 I would argue that GRIDE is insufficiently described here. I had to look up the original publications to see what you are doing. I would propose to either describe it on a much higher level, where you try to explain the basic idea of it (and then not introduce the additional notation and perhaps even move Figure 2 to the appendix); or to describe it in more detail so readers learn about the method from the current papers itself (still, I would then suggest to do it without the proofs).
- 216. I think Kratzert et al. (2019) is not a good reference here, since those results are about ungauged catchments, while here we discuss a gauged setting.
In Kratzert et al (2019) there are however a lot of results regarding the ungauged settings, what were called “global” models.
- 237f. Would be good too see if this pattern is consistent over more than just one model run. But, I can understand if you do not want to make that effort...
Thank you for your comment. Could you please be a little bit more specific on the clarification needed?
- 252-253. In Fig.6 feature 1 does not seem to be much better correlated to soil attributes than to Climate attributes. Maybe adding the actual correlation values would help readers to see what you mean here.
Thank you for your comment. It would indeed help, even if however should be already clear from the colour. We will add the actual values for more clairity.
- 257ff. Please just show whether this collinearities exist! This can be easily checked, no? It should not be a point of discussion, but a point of analysis.
You are right, we will analyse this collinearities.
Sect. 3.3. Interesting discussion.
Sect. 4. It might be good to call the section "Conclusions and outlook" or something similar to accommodate the second part of the section. Else, I really liked the section.Agree, we will rephrase
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC5 -
AC6: 'Reply on RC3', Alberto Bassi, 09 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters
This contribution explores the creation of learned streamflow representations with an autoencoder based approach. However, I do find the approach very, very cool and do therefore hope that HESS accepts the paper. I do just have a single major point. Alas, I do fear that this point will result in a lot of work for the authors (sorry). Additional, I have a surprising amount of smaller comments. In this regard, I would like to especially point out that the quality of the figure is at time mediocre to bad, and I would wish that the senior author takes more care in proofing these simple things before handing in the manuscript. Reviewers that do not like the basic idea could easily use these superficialities to bombard the overall work. Given these two points I feel obliged to propose a major revisions. But, I do hope that my comments help improve the manuscript so that it becomes HESS ready asap.
Thank you for your comments !
Major comment
My main concern with the paper is the lack of context for the results. Due to the lack of baselines and reference points I was able to understand what the results actually imply. I do not know if it is impossible as such --- but I did read the comments from the other reviews and got the feeling that they had a similar problem (but where not able to address it). Thus, I predict that many readers will be lost. I will now give three examples for what I mean:Example 1: The way the models are setup is rather unique in hydrology and very different from what most readers are currently used to. If I understood what you are doing correctly (which is not easy in the first place). You have around 568 samples of length 15*365=5478 (because you use 15 years of daily data; see: L. 110). For comparison. The most basic machine learning dataset, called MNIST, has 6000 samples of length 28*28=784, and the model trained in Kratzert et al. (2019) is trained in a many-to-one setting resulting in 531*15*365=2907225 samples. Also, the models in Kratzert et al. (2019) are trained for 30 epochs, while the autoencoders in the current publications are trained for 2000 epochs (L. 173).
You are absolutely correct, the architecture we have employed is indeed unique, making direct comparisons with models in existing literature challenging. Our aim is not to outperform state-of-the-art models but rather to extract pertinent features for runoff prediction. To facilitate comparison, we contrast ENCA with a model, CAAM, operating within the same setup but utilising catchment attributes. Our objective is to gauge the learned features against established attributes documented in the literature, necessitating a metric for runoff reconstruction evaluation. It's worth noting that we employ the same dataset as Kratzert et al. (2019), albeit with differing preprocessing approaches. Kratzert et al. (2019, 2021) augmented the dataset, repeating each sample 270 and 365 times respectively, whereas our models utilise each sample only once. Consequently, we incorporate a fully connected layer at the outset to augment model capacity. In fact, we conducted experiments (not detailed in the paper) revealing that without the fully connected layer, the resulting Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is significantly low, averaging around 0.0.
Further, the autoencoders are models with much more capacity than the models that are commonly used for the reference datasets that I just mentioned. To give a rough estimation: The models in Kratzert et al. (2019) ingest approx. 30 inputs and have a hidden size of 250 yielding roughly 260,000 parameters. In contrast, in the current paper the LSTM has the same hidden size, but ingests around 1350 inputs (neglecting the different latents from the CNN for now), which yields a magnitude more parameters. As matter of fact, roughly: 1,650,000. And here I did not even count the parameters of the fully connected part and the convolutional network.
Now, counting the number of parameters and model updates is seldom useful. However, I do have to admit that I was surprised then about the lack of validation split, because I would expect that models this large trained on so few samples will easily overfit. I did therefore make a comparison run where I roughly used the settings from Kratzert et al. (2021) (which is a bit more up-to-date in terms of approach than the ones from the 2019 paper, since it uses different dynamic inputs) but the 15 years training-test split from the current paper. And, without any hyper-parameter tuning, I got a median NSE of 0.8 (And a Bias of 0.0097) after less than 20 epochs . From what I can tell this is better than any of the models presented in this paper (see e.g., Table A1). However, with the current version of the manuscript readers are not made aware of this. Currently, papers like Kratzert et al. (2021) or Klotz et al. (2022), who show current best performances/practices, are not referred to at all and I fear that most will not know such things (and probably not look in the corresponding reference). Even I had too look up the reference results and train a model on CAMELS to get a feeling for the difference in performance --- and I worked with this data for a long period of time now. I think it would be good to provide such results as points of reference for readers. But, I think you should also go further and check if you have an overfitting problem that might corrupt your results; or at least discuss this potential problem in your methodology.
You are correct in noting that the autoencoders possess significantly more capacity compared to commonly used models for reference datasets. The total number of parameters is indeed slightly larger than 3 Millions, while the total number of training samples is 531x5478= 2 908 818, making the network slightly over-parameterized, and potentially leading to overfitting. In order to address this problem, we conducted explicit validation across a different time period: training was conducted using data from the first 15 years, with validation performed on the subsequent 15 years using early stopping (with patience of 2000 epochs) with a maximum of 20 000 epochs. This temporal split ensures that the model's performance is evaluated on unseen data. Moreover, the models were regularised with dropout between layers (with probability=0.4) and the training was stopped with early stopping. We did not consider the test split necessary since we did not perform hyper-parameter selection.
However, even if the models may not overfit the training dataset, the models chosen are the ones with best validation loss (or NSE). This way, we implicitly introduced a bias. In this case a test split would be therefore necessary to obtain unbiased estimates of the NSE values. Nevertheless, we already conducted experiments where the models selected are the last trained models after 10 000 epochs (thus without relying on the validation split and similarly to what was done by Kratzert et al., 2019). This second approach shows similar results to the first one, since the training/validation split was the same and the models converged around 10 000 epochs also in the first approach. This way, the test split is no longer necessary.
Note, however, that this good but low NSE values (compared to state-of-the-art approaches) can also arise due to the long sequences fed to the LSTM decoder, which in our case is 5748, while in the referenced literature this number is significantly lower. We explicitly selected such long sequences in order to extract long-term climate information that cannot be detectable when the fed sequences are on the order of one year (Kratzert et al, 2021) or less (Kratzert et al, 2019).
Example 2: In Figure 6 you show a correlation matrix between the PCA components of ENCA-3 and the catchment attributes. These attributes include the hydrological statics that Kratzert et al. (2019) and you did not use (as a side note: I am not sure if the runoff ration and the streamflow elasticity should be considered climate features). The reason that Kratzert et al (2019) did not use these features is that the model therein is supposed to be a simulation model with the capacity to work everywhere --- even in ungauged settings where such information is not available. I do, however, argue that the current version of the manuscript does not tell readers enough gauge their importance. First: if you argue that the learned features encompass the hydrological attributes then it would be necessary to have references that show how models trained with these attributes actually perform (this can be easily shown by showing the performance of one reference with all the attribtues (including the hyrological ones) and another with just the hydrological ones). Second: To me it seems that the correlation of the PCA components with the static attributes is not enough to judge anything, since I do not know how the static attributes are correlated within themselves. For example: I would expect that is correlated with the Low Q Frequency or the runoff-ratio with the Q Mean. Alas, this is not shown in any figure and readers are in the unsatisfying situation that they have to guess, compute these themselves or (and I fear this will happen to most) will remain ignorant of this aspect of the analysis. The remedy is also so very simple: Show the spearman correlation matrix of statics with themselves as a point of reference.
Regarding the placement of runoff ratio and stream ELAS, we acknowledge your point. Indeed, they share characteristics of both climate attributes and hydrological signatures.
We argue that learnt features encompass catchment attributes (which do not include hydrological signatures). We utilise the hydrological signatures solely for the purpose of comparing the learned features and do not incorporate them into the training of our Catchment Attribute-Augmented Model (CAAM).
Additionally, your suggestion regarding the correlation matrix of static attributes with themselves is well-taken. We agree that this information is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the analysis. To remedy this, we will include the Spearman correlation matrix of static attributes in the appendix of the revised manuscript, providing readers with a clear reference point.
Minor comments
Figures
Please adjust the the font-size of all figures. I am not saying that all figures need to have the same font-size (that would be pedantic), but some of the figures are plotted with font-size that seems to be made for posters or presentations (e.g., Fig. 6 or Fig. E1), while others are very difficult to read on A4 (e.g., Figure B1). On top of that some Fig. 2 and Fig. D1 have very bad quality and should be provided in higher resolution. I will now go through all figures of the main manuscript in detail, but I’d like to mention that the ones in the Appendix would also benefit from some love.Figure 1. This is a great figure. I really like it and it helped me to understand the setup greatly. As a matter of fact, it is the only figure I have nothing to complain about.
Thank you !
Figure 2. Three things: (i) I think it would be good to only use a single figure heading here. The right-hand side of the figure does not profit from having “Gride Evolution” written on top of it. (ii) In the main text you write “GRIDE”, but here you use “Gride”. (iii) Please show all restarts and ENCA models. The plateau that you mention the main text is only really visible for ENCA-27 (left-plot) and there is enough space to show the full information if you make the plot a bit smaller. Or, if you do not like that you could provide the additional plot the appendix (like you do with the correlation matrices). As it is now readers have to trust your statement (and I am sure it is true), when you could just show it.
You are absolutely right! We will include all the restarts in the updated version.
Table 1. The whole table is extremely wrapped and difficult to read. I think its worth to format it nicer and maybe use two pages if necessary or move it to the Appendix.
Thank you, noted ! It will be improved for the revised manuscript.
Figure 3. I like to propose to add vertical line between the reference models and the ENCA-n (with n > 0) models. That way the plot would become visually much clearer.
It is true, we will add it in the revised version.
Figure 4 and Figure 5. I think the coloring is off. The figure caption says that the color indicates the difference per catchment clipped in [-1,1]. Thus, grey points should be on the 1:1 line. However, at the clipping position s they are not. For example, in Figure 4 the point at [-1,-1] is colored in dark red (indicating that ENCA-3 performs much better than CAAM for this basin). My believe that the coloring happens before the clipping here, however this is nowhere described so I cannot be sure.
Yes you are right, in Figure 4 we first colour and then clip. We will explain that more clearly in the revised version.
Figure 6. See Major comment.
Figure 7. It is unclear what this is. There exist principal components for multiple restarts and readers do not know what restart from Fig. 6 is used here (or whether this is a new run). The figure itself also does not explain what the color-coding is which maps shows which component. I can, of course, infer that the coding is the magnitude of the component (without showing the value range), and the ordering is from left-to-right); but this should not be a leap f faith on part of the reader.
You are right ! They are the principal components (ordered from the left) of the first restart. We agree that this figure needs the labels and the colour-coding explanation. We will add it into the revised version of the manuscript.
Figure 8. It is difficult to see anything from this figure.
L. 38-39. Isn’t the current analysis also based on predefined model assumptions (just less so)? Like, e.g., that a CNN is appropriated to encode the runoff and that an LSTM is appropriate as decoder.
L.49. Technically the first study shows that data-driven approach outperforms process-based model in prediction accuracy. No “might” needed.
Right, noted !
- 50. becuase -> because
- 50-51. I disagree that sure if the results from Kratzert et al. (2019) suggest that information in the catchment attributes is what was previously not utilized fir streamflow predictions.
We mean that catchment attributes encapsulate information not previously utilised in conceptual models.
L.56. I do not understand what is novel about the architecture. The architecture itself seems to be just a conditional auto-encoder. Maybe I am missing something here though (in which case it would be good if you explain it somewhere).
Rephrase: first time used in hydrology
L.58ff. I argue that it is unclear at this point what a “stochastic model simulator” is. I had to rad the referenced publication by Albert et al. (2002) to figure that out. Therein the system innovations are noise, so I kind off see, how it makes sense. In this study, however, the system innovations are given by meteorological forcing instead of noise. As I see it is not necessary to use this terminology here and the whole paragraph can be shortened, simplified, and made clearer without it. If there is no good argument which I missed, I would therefore propose to avoid it here and then introduce it only in section 2.2.
Ok, noted !
L.70. You do not benchmark your models at all.
Against our CAAM.
- 70-71. Long Short Term Memory -> Long Short-Term Memory
Thank you, noted !
L.90 I do not understand the reference to ungauged basins in the first place. Why not use references to gauged basins that use a time-split like you do in this manuscript? Especially, since in that setting it has also been shown that LSTMs tend to outperform classical approaches.
You are right, it is a typo that we will rephrase.
L.91-92. For me, the claim that the resulting knowledge might become useful for ungauged catchments in the future would need a bit more discussion for me, since your approach assumes knowledge of whole hydrographs to synthesize static attributes.
Thanks for your valuable insight. With this approach we can learn which attributes are more important and then use them in the ungauged setting. But we agree than it needs more explanation.
- 111 The statement that the memory cells of the LSTM are limited by the dimension of the input layer is simply wrong. As a matter of fact, the dimension of the input layer has no influence on the number of memory cells. The hyper-parameter that defines the number of memory cells is the “size of hidden sates” or “hidden size”. Table C2 shows that you have an LSTM hidden size of 256. Hence, this study uses LSTMs with cell states vectors of size 256.
You are right. Sorry for the confusion, we meant the network capacity.
- 117. I find this not so obvious, given that you use a data-split with validation (hence the training data can be memorized without learning to actually hand over the required information) and that the LSTM has to learn to push this information through it precisely. Checking this claim would be an interesting experiment for the Appendix and provide a useful point of reference for readers.
It is indeed interesting and we will try to add it into the next version.
- 132. I think it would be interesting if you report the batch statics somewhere (and perhaps compare them to the statics of the attributes).
What do you mean by batch statics?
Section 2.3 I would argue that GRIDE is insufficiently described here. I had to look up the original publications to see what you are doing. I would propose to either describe it on a much higher level, where you try to explain the basic idea of it (and then not introduce the additional notation and perhaps even move Figure 2 to the appendix); or to describe it in more detail so readers learn about the method from the current papers itself (still, I would then suggest to do it without the proofs).
- 216. I think Kratzert et al. (2019) is not a good reference here, since those results are about ungauged catchments, while here we discuss a gauged setting.
In Kratzert et al (2019) there are however a lot of results regarding the ungauged settings, what were called “global” models.
- 237f. Would be good too see if this pattern is consistent over more than just one model run. But, I can understand if you do not want to make that effort...
Thank you for your comment. Could you please be a little bit more specific on the clarification needed?
- 252-253. In Fig.6 feature 1 does not seem to be much better correlated to soil attributes than to Climate attributes. Maybe adding the actual correlation values would help readers to see what you mean here.
Thank you for your comment. It would indeed help, even if however should be already clear from the colour. We will add the actual values for more clairity.
- 257ff. Please just show whether this collinearities exist! This can be easily checked, no? It should not be a point of discussion, but a point of analysis.
You are right, we will analyse this collinearities.
Sect. 3.3. Interesting discussion.
Sect. 4. It might be good to call the section "Conclusions and outlook" or something similar to accommodate the second part of the section. Else, I really liked the section.Agree, we will rephrase
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC6
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RC4: 'Short addendum', Daniel Klotz, 24 Mar 2024
Status: closed
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CC1: 'Comment on hess-2024-47', John Ding, 22 Feb 2024
Sect. 2.4 Training and Validation
The form of NSE Nash - Sutcliffe efficiency, Equation (1), is also applied but much earlier by me (Ding, 1974, Equations 40, 47).
In hindsight, this is at variance with the original formulation published by Nash and Sutcliffe (1970, Equation 2) in which the so-called "initial variance" is a constant, as opposed to a model-dependent variable used by both of us.
Duc and Sawada (2023, Equations 3, 24, and Figure 2) recently pointed out, this earliest known variant of the NSE is in fact a standard statistical measure of the coefficient of determination, R^2. I've had little or no reason to beg to differ, but the authors may think otherwise.
In final analysis, what counts is the base SSE, sum of squares of the error, or its equivalents, the MSE as the authors note in Lines 171-172, or RMSE.
References
Ding, J.Y., 1974. Variable unit hydrograph. Journal of Hydrology, 22(1-2), pp.53-69.
Duc, L. and Sawada, Y.: A signal-processing-based interpretation of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1827–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1827-2023, 2023.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-CC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Alberto Bassi, 21 Mar 2024
Thank you for pointing out this error!
It was a typo, since we are actually using the original NSE version in the computation (Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970). We will correct it.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC1
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AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Alberto Bassi, 21 Mar 2024
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RC1: 'Comment on hess-2024-47', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Mar 2024
Review of Bassi et al., Learning Landscape Features from Streamflow with Autoencoders (HESSD)
Bassi et al. use a so-called explicit noise conditional autoencoder (ENCA) to extract a minimal number of streamflow features from a large sample of catchments from the CAMELS US database. The ENCA extracts streamflow features that, together with meteorological variables, allow to reconstruct the streamflow time series. Thus, the features carry information about the way the catchments transform the meteorological signal into the streamflow signal, which should be related to catchment attributes. To explore the information content of these features, the authors relate them to static catchment attributes, hydrological signatures, and (qualitatively) to model parameters of the GR4J model. This shows that the learnt features are related to various hydrological signatures and catchment attributes, especially those related to climate. The authors conclude that the static catchment attributes used contain almost all relevant information to reconstruct the streamflow time series and that these attributes can be summarized only by two to three relevant features extractable by the ENCA.
The paper is well written and of interest to the HESS readership. Overall, I think it has the potential to become a very interesting contribution, but it requires clarifications and revisions before it can be published. Below I list major and minor comments that hopefully help to strengthen the paper.
Major comments:
The authors often write “sufficient”, “succeed”, etc. I think this is a bit misleading because (a) this binary view is not appropriate when we really look at a range of “goodness of fit” values, and (b) NSE is only one of many possible metrics to assess a model, with often discussed shortcomings (see e.g. Clark et al., 2021).
For instance, in the abstract the authors write “available static catchment attributes compiled by experts account for almost all the relevant information about the rainfall-runoff relationship”. But:
(1) The median NSE is never higher than 0.7. That might be viewed as "good” but it is still lower than the maximum value of 1, so there should be room for improvement. (Besides the fact that it is difficult to interpret what a value of 0.7 really means hydrologically for a diverse set of catchments.)
(2) The median bias is close to 0, but this should be relatively easy to enforce with calibration. (Also note that most variability in the water balance can already be explained by aridity alone.)
(3) All models consistently underestimate variability, suggesting that there is some aspect of streamflow dynamics that they miss. (This might also explain why the median NSE is still far from 1, given that NSE should partly relate to how well streamflow variability is captured).
Does that really mean that all the relevant information about the rainfall-runoff process is captured? I would challenge that, because we may not capture many other aspects of streamflow response (i.e. hydrological signatures) that are relevant, for example those related to high flows, recessions, climate sensitivities, etc. At one point the authors even write that “It can partly be attributed to using NSE as objective function for training which puts more weight on matching high flow.” So I think some parts of the manuscript need to be reworded to make it clearer that the results mainly refer to a "good" NSE. Generally, I think the manuscript requires a more thorough discussion of possible shortcomings related to the use of metrics such as NSE. It might also be worthwhile to investigate other signatures for calibration and evaluation to get a more differentiated picture of the rainfall-runoff process, so that the statement that all relevant information is captured can be made with more confidence (or perhaps that it cannot be made).
As a side note, the splitting up of NSE (or KGE) into its components – essentially variability, timing, and volume errors – leads to three quite similar metrics. It might be worth considering to use these three components, because they are similar to the metrics used here but their relationship is better understood (see also Gupta et al., 2009). In addition, the other two metrics, especially the variability metric, might be correlated with NSE. It would be interesting to show the correlation between the different evaluation metrics to see how independent they are.
My second major point is about what the ENCA really learns. The authors write that forcing is fed to the decoder and thus it only learns “features that are related to landscape properties”. Is that really the case? Let’s say we feed temperature, potential evaporation (or radiation) and precipitation to the ENCA model (or really any kind of model), then the model somehow represents the interactions between the forcing variables, to some degree mediated by properties of the catchment system (e.g. soils). But: there is a lot of interaction that explains the hydrological response almost independent of any landscape feature. For example, the (long-term and seasonal) interaction between precipitation and potential evaporation can explain most of the variability in the water balance. And the interaction between temperature, radiation and precipitation can explain most of the variability in snow accumulation and melt (at least at the catchment scale). We know this because studies like Knoben et al. (2018) have derived interactive indices that basically take meteorological variables and translate them into “climate fingerprints” that explain a lot of the observed variability in streamflow (though not all of it). In particular, these climate indices explain similar signatures as the ones that are well explained in this study. This makes me wonder to what extent the learnt features are really landscape fingerprints that relate to what we might call catchment form (topography, soils, geology, etc.). Because in Figure 6 it is mainly climate and streamflow signatures that show high correlations, and only a few landscape attributes show weak to medium correlations (and are themselves are related to climate, e.g. forest fraction). I am not an expert in ML methods like ENCA, so perhaps I did not fully grasp the way ENCA works. Still, I would appreciate if the authors could discuss this in more detail in a revised version of the manuscript.
The discussion around GR4J requires some improvement. It does not actually compare the results to model parameters (either calibrated or estimated based on a priori information), so it remains a qualitative discussion on how certain conceptual parameters relate to the learnt features. It would be much more convincing if some analysis was performed using GR4J to actually show that (a) the GR4J parameters are indeed related to the features (or signatures) discussed (essentially a sensitivity analysis) and (b) whether parameters calibrated to the catchments studied here relate to the extracted features (which would require calibrating GR4J to all the catchments).
Minor comments
- I was wondering if there is a way to explain more tangibly what the learnt features are, especially for people not familiar with ENCA etc.? How do they relate to signatures (typically single numbers)?
- Figure 1: estimated Q looks almost like observed Q: is the model so good or is this the same graph?
- The quality of the figures (e.g. Figure 2) is sometimes a bit poor.
- It should read topographical and not topological in Table 1.
- l.209 and elsewhere: “collected by experts” might be a bit misleading. Many of those attributes are from continental or global maps, which are of course derived by experts (e.g. in soil surveys) but perhaps not with the idea of explaining catchment response.
- Figure 6: are these absolute correlations or why are they >0?
- l.222: “does now exceed” should that be “not exceed”?
- l.230 and elsewhere: I wouldn’t say that NSE>0 means “success”, see also major comments.
- Figure 7: the maps are very small and instead could be shown below each other. They also need to be labelled more clearly, e.g. a, b, c for the subpanels. This is true for many other plots as well.
- Figure 8: the axes should be labelled. The standardization also makes it a bit difficult to interpret what we see. Might here be an easier way to show this? May a plot of BFI vs. aridity (potentially coloured according to a third variable), with circles around the 15 catchments?
- The GR4J groundwater exchange coefficient is a tricky parameter, because it may account for all sorts of water balance problems that might not necessarily relate to groundwater exchanges. This could be discussed somewhere around l.315 that contains a similar discussion on mass balance enforcement in LSTMs.
References
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., & Martinez, G. F. (2009). Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling. Journal of hydrology, 377(1-2), 80-91.
Knoben, W. J., Woods, R. A., & Freer, J. E. (2018). A quantitative hydrological climate classification evaluated with independent streamflow data. Water Resources Research, 54(7), 5088-5109.
Clark, M. P., Vogel, R. M., Lamontagne, J. R., Mizukami, N., Knoben, W. J., Tang, G., ... & Papalexiou, S. M. (2021). The abuse of popular performance metrics in hydrologic modeling. Water Resources Research, 57(9), e2020WR029001.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-RC1 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Alberto Bassi, 03 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters.
Review of Bassi et al., Learning Landscape Features from Streamflow with Autoencoders (HESSD)
Bassi et al. use a so-called explicit noise conditional autoencoder (ENCA) to extract a minimal number of streamflow features from a large sample of catchments from the CAMELS US database. The ENCA extracts streamflow features that, together with meteorological variables, allow to reconstruct the streamflow time series. Thus, the features carry information about the way the catchments transform the meteorological signal into the streamflow signal, which should be related to catchment attributes. To explore the information content of these features, the authors relate them to static catchment attributes, hydrological signatures, and (qualitatively) to model parameters of the GR4J model. This shows that the learnt features are related to various hydrological signatures and catchment attributes, especially those related to climate. The authors conclude that the static catchment attributes used contain almost all relevant information to reconstruct the streamflow time series and that these attributes can be summarized only by two to three relevant features extractable by the ENCA.
The paper is well written and of interest to the HESS readership. Overall, I think it has the potential to become a very interesting contribution, but it requires clarifications and revisions before it can be published. Below I list major and minor comments that hopefully help to strengthen the paper.
Thank you !
Major comments:
The authors often write “sufficient”, “succeed”, etc. I think this is a bit misleading because (a) this binary view is not appropriate when we really look at a range of “goodness of fit” values, and (b) NSE is only one of many possible metrics to assess a model, with often discussed shortcomings (see e.g. Clark et al., 2021).
For instance, in the abstract the authors write “available static catchment attributes compiled by experts account for almost all the relevant information about the rainfall-runoff relationship”. But:
(1) The median NSE is never higher than 0.7. That might be viewed as "good” but it is still lower than the maximum value of 1, so there should be room for improvement. (Besides the fact that it is difficult to interpret what a value of 0.7 really means hydrologically for a diverse set of catchments.)
We acknowledge the need for a more cautious interpretation of the NSE values obtained in our study. While these values are generally considered good, it's important to recognise that they may not represent state-of-the-art predictions. The phrase 'available static catchment attributes compiled by experts account for almost all the relevant information about the rainfall-runoff relationship' should be understood in relation to the results found by ENCA compared with CAAM (the model fed with known catchment attributes). We will revise this statement in the next iteration to provide clearer context and avoid potential misinterpretation.
(2) The median bias is close to 0, but this should be relatively easy to enforce with calibration. (Also note that most variability in the water balance can already be explained by aridity alone.)
While it's true that bias can be easily enforced to be zero through calibration, our intention in this study was to minimise the imposition of constraints during training to reduce model assumptions. By allowing flexibility in the model without enforcing biases, we aimed to explore the natural variability of the system and avoid potentially biased results. Additionally, it's noteworthy that the influence of aridity alone already explains much of the variability in the water balance, we will investigate this point in future work.
(3) All models consistently underestimate variability, suggesting that there is some aspect of streamflow dynamics that they miss. (This might also explain why the median NSE is still far from 1, given that NSE should partly relate to how well streamflow variability is captured).
This it is a general feature of training with NSE, that tends to underestimate the flow variability.
Does that really mean that all the relevant information about the rainfall-runoff process is captured? I would challenge that, because we may not capture many other aspects of streamflow response (i.e. hydrological signatures) that are relevant, for example those related to high flows, recessions, climate sensitivities, etc. At one point the authors even write that “It can partly be attributed to using NSE as objective function for training which puts more weight on matching high flow.” So I think some parts of the manuscript need to be reworded to make it clearer that the results mainly refer to a "good" NSE. Generally, I think the manuscript requires a more thorough discussion of possible shortcomings related to the use of metrics such as NSE. It might also be worthwhile to investigate other signatures for calibration and evaluation to get a more differentiated picture of the rainfall-runoff process, so that the statement that all relevant information is captured can be made with more confidence (or perhaps that it cannot be made).
As a side note, the splitting up of NSE (or KGE) into its components – essentially variability, timing, and volume errors – leads to three quite similar metrics. It might be worth considering to use these three components, because they are similar to the metrics used here but their relationship is better understood (see also Gupta et al., 2009). In addition, the other two metrics, especially the variability metric, might be correlated with NSE. It would be interesting to show the correlation between the different evaluation metrics to see how independent they are.
Thank you for your valuable input. Examining the three components in which NSE can be decomposed could indeed provide valuable insights into what ENCA actually learns. We will enhance the discussion surrounding the NSE values in the next iteration of the manuscript, ensuring a thorough exploration of the limitations and implications. Additionally, your suggestion to consider other evaluation metrics, such as those outlined by Gupta et al. (2009), presents an intriguing avenue for further analysis. We will investigate these metrics and explore their correlation with NSE to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the rainfall-runoff process.
My second major point is about what the ENCA really learns. The authors write that forcing is fed to the decoder and thus it only learns “features that are related to landscape properties”. Is that really the case? Let’s say we feed temperature, potential evaporation (or radiation) and precipitation to the ENCA model (or really any kind of model), then the model somehow represents the interactions between the forcing variables, to some degree mediated by properties of the catchment system (e.g. soils). But: there is a lot of interaction that explains the hydrological response almost independent of any landscape feature. For example, the (long-term and seasonal) interaction between precipitation and potential evaporation can explain most of the variability in the water balance. And the interaction between temperature, radiation and precipitation can explain most of the variability in snow accumulation and melt (at least at the catchment scale). We know this because studies like Knoben et al. (2018) have derived interactive indices that basically take meteorological variables and translate them into “climate fingerprints” that explain a lot of the observed variability in streamflow (though not all of it). In particular, these climate indices explain similar signatures as the ones that are well explained in this study. This makes me wonder to what extent the learnt features are really landscape fingerprints that relate to what we might call catchment form (topography, soils, geology, etc.). Because in Figure 6 it is mainly climate and streamflow signatures that show high correlations, and only a few landscape attributes show weak to medium correlations (and are themselves are related to climate, e.g. forest fraction). I am not an expert in ML methods like ENCA, so perhaps I did not fully grasp the way ENCA works. Still, I would appreciate if the authors could discuss this in more detail in a revised version of the manuscript.
Our hypothesis here is that the decoder, which is an LSTM model, is flexible enough to extract all the information in the meteorological drivers insofar as it is relevant for runoff prediction. This includes all information contained in the interaction between those drivers. Under this assumption, the encoder is incentivized to only extract those features from the runoff that are not stemming from the meteorological data, i.e. landscape features. Of course, this assumption is probably not completely true, and even if it were, the result of the training of the whole Autoencoder might still lead to a certain degree of redundancy, i.e. certain meteorological or climate features might be encoded even though the decoder has direct access to this information. We will discuss these issues more clearly in the revised version. Since we used a uni-directional LSTM, there is the possibility that the decoder does not utilise all the available climate data. Therefore, we are planning to feed this data separately to the decoder (future work).
The discussion around GR4J requires some improvement. It does not actually compare the results to model parameters (either calibrated or estimated based on a priori information), so it remains a qualitative discussion on how certain conceptual parameters relate to the learnt features. It would be much more convincing if some analysis was performed using GR4J to actually show that (a) the GR4J parameters are indeed related to the features (or signatures) discussed (essentially a sensitivity analysis) and (b) whether parameters calibrated to the catchments studied here relate to the extracted features (which would require calibrating GR4J to all the catchments).
We acknowledge the need for improvement in the discussion regarding the relationships between learnt features and conceptual model parameters. To address this, we plan to calibrate the GR4J model using the CAMELS dataset and conduct a correlation analysis between the model parameters and the learnt features. This will allow for a more robust assessment of the relationships between the model parameters and the learnt features, providing valuable insights into the underlying hydrological processes. Thank you for highlighting this aspect, and we will try to incorporate these analyses into our future work to enhance the discussion.
Minor comments
- I was wondering if there is a way to explain more tangibly what the learnt features are, especially for people not familiar with ENCA etc.? How do they relate to signatures (typically single numbers)?
- This is a very good question. So far only correlation analysis, Future work: nonlinear mappings to (i) parameters of conceptual models (ii) known static features.
- Figure 1: estimated Q looks almost like observed Q: is the model so good or is this the same graph?
- Yes it is exactly the same figure, but it is meant to be the reconstructed runoff. We will correct it for the next iteration.
- The quality of the figures (e.g. Figure 2) is sometimes a bit poor.
- It should read topographical and not topological in Table 1.
- Yes sorry, we will correct it.
- l.209 and elsewhere: “collected by experts” might be a bit misleading. Many of those attributes are from continental or global maps, which are of course derived by experts (e.g. in soil surveys) but perhaps not with the idea of explaining catchment response.
- Maybe better: “known attributes” here .
- Figure 6: are these absolute correlations or why are they >0?
- Yes, absolutely. We will clarify it.
- l.222: “does now exceed” should that be “not exceed”?
- Yes sorry, we will correct it.
- l.230 and elsewhere: I wouldn’t say that NSE>0 means “success”, see also major comments.
- We should write “success a la Kratzert” (Kratzert et al., 2019) where also this definition was used. Otherwise we agree that a NSE of zero does indicate a good performance.
- Figure 7: the maps are very small and instead could be shown below each other. They also need to be labelled more clearly, e.g. a, b, c for the subpanels. This is true for many other plots as well.
- Figure 8: the axes should be labelled. The standardization also makes it a bit difficult to interpret what we see. Might here be an easier way to show this? May a plot of BFI vs. aridity (potentially coloured according to a third variable), with circles around the 15 catchments?
- We apologise for the quality of this and other figures. We will revise them carefully for the next iteration.
- The GR4J groundwater exchange coefficient is a tricky parameter, because it may account for all sorts of water balance problems that might not necessarily relate to groundwater exchanges. This could be discussed somewhere around l.315 that contains a similar discussion on mass balance enforcement in LSTMs.
- Yes absolutely !
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC2
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CC2: 'Comment on hess-2024-47', Weibo Liu, 16 Mar 2024
This article utilized an explicit noise conditional autoencoder (ENCA) along with meteorological forcings to mimic the time series of streamflow. The model's performance was compared to state-of-the-art models. Subsequently, the relatively small number of features was determined using an intrinsic dimension estimator. Furthermore, the relevant learnt features were correlated with static catchment attributes. Finally, the learned features and GR4J parameters were discussed. It's an interesting work for me. However, I have some comments about this work:
General Comments:
1. Section 3.2: This study showed the Spearman correlation matrix of the principal components of relevant features for ENCA-3 in Fig. 6, as well as for ENCA-4, ENCA-5, and ENCA-27 in Figures E2, E3, and E4. Why wasn't ENCA-2 included? Approximately a dozen catchments were improved from ENCA-2 to ENCA-3, notably those with high aridity indexes (AIs). However, the first and second principal components of ENCA-3 have high Spearman correlation coefficients for almost all of these catchment attributes (baseflow indices, AIs, and Q95). Thus, I am interested in understanding the improvements from ENCA-2 to ENCA-3, which can be interpreted using the Spearman correlation matrix.
2. Section 3.3: It's intriguing to draw a comparison between the learnt features and the parameters of hydrologcial models, and the analysis included sounds reasonable as well. However, such discussions appear somewhat subjective. I suggest some additional experiments, such as performing a correlation analysis between the learnt features in this work and the calibrated parameters of the hydrological model, or delving a little further into this component of the work.Specific Comments:
1. Equation 1: The NSE seems like to be different from the original Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency in Nash and Sutcliffe (1970), of which the qsim,t in the denominator should be qobs,t.
2. Figure 2: The 'Gride' above the subfigures should be 'GRIDE'.
3. Figure 3: What do the whiskers of the boxplots mean? 5% and 95% quantiles, or quartile plus 1.5IQR, or alternative interpretations? I suggest making this clear. Besides, The judgement of several models appeared to be primarily concerned with outliers. However, for example, the 25% - 75% quantile of ENCA-2 seems lower than that of CAAM. In this regard, CAAM seems to be more similar to ENCA-3 or even ENCA-5.
4. Line 176: 'asses' should be 'assess'.References
Nash, J. and Sutcliffe, J. (1970). River flow forecasting through conceptual models part i — a discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology, 10(3):282–290.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-CC2 -
AC3: 'Reply on CC2', Alberto Bassi, 03 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters.
This article utilized an explicit noise conditional autoencoder (ENCA) along with meteorological forcings to mimic the time series of streamflow. The model's performance was compared to state-of-the-art models. Subsequently, the relatively small number of features was determined using an intrinsic dimension estimator. Furthermore, the relevant learnt features were correlated with static catchment attributes. Finally, the learned features and GR4J parameters were discussed. It's an interesting work for me. However, I have some comments about this work:
General Comments:
1. Section 3.2: This study showed the Spearman correlation matrix of the principal components of relevant features for ENCA-3 in Fig. 6, as well as for ENCA-4, ENCA-5, and ENCA-27 in Figures E2, E3, and E4. Why wasn't ENCA-2 included? Approximately a dozen catchments were improved from ENCA-2 to ENCA-3, notably those with high aridity indexes (AIs). However, the first and second principal components of ENCA-3 have high Spearman correlation coefficients for almost all of these catchment attributes (baseflow indices, AIs, and Q95). Thus, I am interested in understanding the improvements from ENCA-2 to ENCA-3, which can be interpreted using the Spearman correlation matrix.While we appreciate your interest in understanding the improvements from ENCA-2 to ENCA-3 through the Spearman correlation matrix, we believe that inserting the correlation matrix for ENCA-2 may not provide additional insights beyond what is already captured by the first two features of ENCA-3. These features exhibit high correlation coefficients with relevant catchment attributes such as baseflow indices, aridity indexes, and Q95. However, to better illustrate the improvements between ENCA-2 and ENCA-3, we suggest referring to Figures 4 and 5, which present the model performance metrics (e.g., NSE) for both ENCA versions. These figures provide a more direct comparison of the model performance and highlight the enhancements achieved in ENCA-3 compared to ENCA-2. We hope this clarifies the rationale behind our approach, and we appreciate your feedback on this matter.
2. Section 3.3: It's intriguing to draw a comparison between the learnt features and the parameters of hydrologcial models, and the analysis included sounds reasonable as well. However, such discussions appear somewhat subjective. I suggest some additional experiments, such as performing a correlation analysis between the learnt features in this work and the calibrated parameters of the hydrological model, or delving a little further into this component of the work.
Thank you for your insightful suggestion. We agree that further analysis is warranted to better understand the relationship between the learnt features and the calibrated parameters of hydrological models. In future work, we plan to conduct a correlation analysis between the learnt features extracted in this study and the calibrated parameters of the GR4J model.
Specific Comments:
- Equation 1: The NSE seems like to be different from the original Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency in Nash and Sutcliffe (1970), of which the qsim,t in the denominator should be qobs,t.
Yes it is a typo, it should be the original NSE version. - Figure 2: The 'Gride' above the subfigures should be 'GRIDE'.
Thank you, noted. We will revise this (in particular) and the other poor figures for the next iteration. - Figure 3: What do the whiskers of the boxplots mean? 5% and 95% quantiles, or quartile plus 1.5IQR, or alternative interpretations? I suggest making this clear. Besides, The judgement of several models appeared to be primarily concerned with outliers. However, for example, the 25% - 75% quantile of ENCA-2 seems lower than that of CAAM. In this regard, CAAM seems to be more similar to ENCA-3 or even ENCA-5.
Yes the whiskers mean the 5% and 95 % quantile. We will clarify this aspect for the next iteration. You are right that the biggest differences in terms of NSE are observed for outliers when the number of latent features is greater than 2. However, from ENCA-1 to ENCA-2 we also observe a neat difference in the bulk, suggesting one learnt features is not enough to encapsulate the information contained in the straemflow. It is true that ENCA-2 quantiles 25/75 are more similar to ENCA-5. (For the next iteration, it would be maybe easier to visualise a metric distance between NSE distributions instead of the boxplots.) - Line 176: 'asses' should be 'assess'. Yes thanks, noted.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC3 - Equation 1: The NSE seems like to be different from the original Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency in Nash and Sutcliffe (1970), of which the qsim,t in the denominator should be qobs,t.
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AC3: 'Reply on CC2', Alberto Bassi, 03 Apr 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on hess-2024-47', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Mar 2024
General Comments
The authors developed a ENCA -based method to extract relevant physio-geographic and climatic catchment features that are still able to well reproduce the observed discharge time series from 568 catchment of the CAMELS data.
The paper is in my opinion highly relevant given the current developments in using KI in Catchment Hydrology and contributes with some novel aspects. It is generally well structured, compactly written losing relevant information and is easy to read. I belief therefore the manuscript is well suited for publication in the HESS journal.
Some comments/suggestion that I believe would improve the manuscript and that should be addressed before final publication is the following:
- In line 119 you define the output of the encoder as “relevant landscape features” – I would mention that it is technically a vector with N numbers (where the derivation of setting/determining setting of N is explain later).
- Concerning the ENCA process – I see the problem/issue that the derived latent features will be strongly influenced by the characteristic (Bias, variability, etc.) of the meteorological data. While in this paper only 1 dataset is used, I would like to recommend a study by Lehmann et al. 2022 who analysed 1600 of different meteorological data products (for Eta, P, Q) in comparison to GRACE data. In order to examine the robustness of the approach presented here – I would like to see how, consistent the latent features will be estimated under different “quality” od data.
- I would put the technical formulations for the GRIDE estimator in an appendix and replace it by a more illustrative description and figure! The analysis in section 2.3 was difficult to follow.
- Gupta et al. 2009 (J. Hydrol. 377, 80-91) have shown, that for optimal NSE estimates, the variance of the observations will be systematically underestimated in the predictions!
- Section 2.5 – I would like to see a nice graph/figure where the latent feature reduction/followed by PCA and correlation analyses with catchment characteristics is given. Is there any attempt done to analyse any kind of non-linear dependencies between latent features and catchment characteristics?
- Why is it so important to reduce on the minimum number of latent features? We see that with each feature the performance is better (even though increasing less, and less). Is it importance of feature authors are interested? What are the consequences now?
Minor Changes:
- L3: Number and types of signatures - could you 2-3 examples for types of signatures, here.
- Table 1 is hard to read
- L214/215: I do not understand this statement
- Figure 7: More heading – what do the colours mean?
- Figure 8: what does “relevant” mean here?
- Table C1: define bs
I feel, the manuscript has in general the potential to be a valuable contribution to HESS, however, questions and issues raised in the general comments would need to be addressed and discussed to a significant part before final acceptance.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-RC2 -
AC4: 'Reply on RC2', Alberto Bassi, 03 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters.
Genral comments
The authors developed a ENCA -based method to extract relevant physio-geographic and climatic catchment features that are still able to well reproduce the observed discharge time series from 568 catchment of the CAMELS data.
The paper is in my opinion highly relevant given the current developments in using KI in Catchment Hydrology and contributes with some novel aspects. It is generally well structured, compactly written losing relevant information and is easy to read. I belief therefore the manuscript is well suited for publication in the HESS journal.
Thank you !
Some comments/suggestion that I believe would improve the manuscript and that should be addressed before final publication is the following:
- In line 119 you define the output of the encoder as “relevant landscape features” – I would mention that it is technically a vector with N numbers (where the derivation of setting/determining setting of N is explain later).
- Thank you, we agree that it would make the text clearer to specify that we the encoder learns a vector of features for each catchment.
- Concerning the ENCA process – I see the problem/issue that the derived latent features will be strongly influenced by the characteristic (Bias, variability, etc.) of the meteorological data. While in this paper only 1 dataset is used, I would like to recommend a study by Lehmann et al. 2022 who analysed 1600 of different meteorological data products (for Eta, P, Q) in comparison to GRACE data. In order to examine the robustness of the approach presented here – I would like to see how, consistent the latent features will be estimated under different “quality” of data.
- Thank you for bringing up this important consideration. Exploring the robustness of the ENCA approach to different meteorological data products, as highlighted by Lehmann et al. (2022), indeed seems like an intriguing direction for future investigation. While we acknowledge the potential influence of meteorological data characteristics on the derived latent features, we currently focus on analyzing the performance and implications of our approach using the dataset available in this study. However, we appreciate your suggestion and plan to explore the robustness of the ENCA method to varying data qualities in future work.
- I would put the technical formulations for the GRIDE estimator in an appendix and replace it by a more illustrative description and figure! The analysis in section 2.3 was difficult to follow.
- Yes, we agree with your assessment. The technical formulations in section 2.3 are indeed dense and may be difficult to follow. As suggested, we plan to simplify the explanation and supplement it with a figure to enhance clarity.
- Gupta et al. 2009 (J. Hydrol. 377, 80-91) have shown, that for optimal NSE estimates, the variance of the observations will be systematically underestimated in the predictions!
- Thank you for the reference, we will add it to the manuscript.
- Section 2.5 – I would like to see a nice graph/figure where the latent feature reduction/followed by PCA and correlation analyses with catchment characteristics is given. Is there any attempt done to analyse any kind of non-linear dependencies between latent features and catchment characteristics?
- It is a very interesting question. We plan to address to find a non-linear map between learnt features and known attributes in future work (e.g. Glielmo et al., 2022)
- Why is it so important to reduce on the minimum number of latent features? We see that with each feature the performance is better (even though increasing less, and less). Is it importance of feature authors are interested? What are the consequences now?
- We acknowledge that increasing the number of latent features generally leads to improved model performance, albeit with diminishing returns. While there is no strict requirement to minimize the number of latent features, we find it noteworthy that there is a significant improvement in model performance between 2 and 3 learnt features. However, as the number of features (N) increases beyond this point, the performance gains tend to be marginal. We agree that the cutoff for the number of features is somewhat arbitrary. However, it is interesting to note a strong dimensionality reduction of the learnt features concerning runoff (Q) and the static attributes. This reduction suggests that the model is effectively capturing the most relevant information from the input attributes, leading to improved performance with a relatively small number of features. It is natural to question why the model selects only 2 or 3 relevant features out of the 27 attributes fed to CAAM. Further investigation into the optimal number of features and their relationship to model performance could provide valuable insights into the underlying hydrological processes and model representation.
- Minor Changes:
- L3: Number and types of signatures - could you 2-3 examples for types of signatures, here.
- Sure, we will add them!
- Table 1 is hard to read
- We absolutely agree, we will reformat this table.
- L214/215: I do not understand this statement
- Standardisation is done in two different ways (L129) such that maybe the magnitude of the learnt features fed to the decoder of ENCA is different from that of the known attributes fed to CAAM. This can maybe cause a different reconstructed variability. This is however just an hypothesis and requires more work to be verified.
- Figure 7: More heading – what do the colours mean?
- We apologise for the lack of labels and colour legend. We will add it for the next iteration. The colors here represent the magnitude of the learnt features.
- Figure 8: what does “relevant” mean here?
- The relevant landscape features found by ENCA (L119-120)
- Table C1: define bs
- Yes thank you! We will correct it.
I feel, the manuscript has in general the potential to be a valuable contribution to HESS, however, questions and issues raised in the general comments would need to be addressed and discussed to a significant part before final acceptance.
Thank you for you comments and feedback !
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC4
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RC3: 'Comment on hess-2024-47', Daniel Klotz, 22 Mar 2024
This contribution explores the creation of learned streamflow representations with an autoencoder based approach. However, I do find the approach very, very cool and do therefore hope that HESS accepts the paper. I do just have a single major point. Alas, I do fear that this point will result in a lot of work for the authors (sorry). Additional, I have a surprising amount of smaller comments. In this regard, I would like to especially point out that the quality of the figure is at time mediocre to bad, and I would wish that the senior author takes more care in proofing these simple things before handing in the manuscript. Reviewers that do not like the basic idea could easily use these superficialities to bombard the overall work. Given these two points I feel obliged to propose a major revisions. But, I do hope that my comments help improve the manuscript so that it becomes HESS ready asap.
Major comment
My main concern with the paper is the lack of context for the results. Due to the lack of baselines and reference points I was able to understand what the results actually imply. I do not know if it is impossible as such --- but I did read the comments from the other reviews and got the feeling that they had a similar problem (but where not able to address it). Thus, I predict that many readers will be lost. I will now give three examples for what I mean:Example 1: The way the models are setup is rather unique in hydrology and very different from what most readers are currently used to. If I understood what you are doing correctly (which is not easy in the first place). You have around 568 samples of length 15*365=5478 (because you use 15 years of daily data; see: L. 110). For comparison. The most basic machine learning dataset, called MNIST, has 6000 samples of length 28*28=784, and the model trained in Kratzert et al. (2019) is trained in a many-to-one setting resulting in 531*15*365=2907225 samples. Also, the models in Kratzert et al. (2019) are trained for 30 epochs, while the autoencoders in the current publications are trained for 2000 epochs (L. 173).
Further, the autoencoders are models with much more capacity than the models that are commonly used for the reference datasets that I just mentioned. To give a rough estimation: The models in Kratzert et al. (2019) ingest approx. 30 inputs and have a hidden size of 250 yielding roughly 260,000 parameters. In contrast, in the current paper the LSTM has the same hidden size, but ingests around 1350 inputs (neglecting the different latents from the CNN for now), which yields a magnitude more parameters. As matter of fact, roughly: 1,650,000. And here I did not even count the parameters of the fully connected part and the convolutional network.Now, counting the number of parameters and model updates is seldom useful. However, I do have to admit that I was surprised then about the lack of validation split, because I would expect that models this large trained on so few samples will easily overfit. I did therefore make a comparison run where I roughly used the settings from Kratzert et al. (2021) (which is a bit more up-to-date in terms of approach than the ones from the 2019 paper, since it uses different dynamic inputs) but the 15 years training-test split from the current paper. And, without any hyper-parameter tuning, I got a median NSE of 0.8 (And a Bias of 0.0097) after less than 20 epochs . From what I can tell this is better than any of the models presented in this paper (see e.g., Table A1). However, with the current version of the manuscript readers are not made aware of this. Currently, papers like Kratzert et al. (2021) or Klotz et al. (2022), who show current best performances/practices, are not referred to at all and I fear that most will not know such things (and probably not look in the corresponding reference). Even I had too look up the reference results and train a model on CAMELS to get a feeling for the difference in performance --- and I worked with this data for a long period of time now. I think it would be good to provide such results as points of reference for readers. But, I think you should also go further and check if you have an overfitting problem that might corrupt your results; or at least discuss this potential problem in your methodology.
Example 2: In Figure 6 you show a correlation matrix between the PCA components of ENCA-3 and the catchment attributes. These attributes include the hydrological statics that Kratzert et al. (2019) and you did not use (as a side note: I am not sure if the runoff ration and the streamflow elasticity should be considered climate features). The reason that Kratzert et al (2019) did not use these features is that the model therein is supposed to be a simulation model with the capacity to work everywhere --- even in ungauged settings where such information is not available. I do, however, argue that the current version of the manuscript does not tell readers enough gauge their importance. First: if you argue that the learned features encompass the hydrological attributes then it would be necessary to have references that show how models trained with these attributes actually perform (this can be easily shown by showing the performance of one reference with all the attribtues (including the hyrological ones) and another with just the hydrological ones). Second: To me it seems that the correlation of the PCA components with the static attributes is not enough to judge anything, since I do not know how the static attributes are correlated within themselves. For example: I would expect that is correlated with the Low Q Frequency or the runoff-ratio with the Q Mean. Alas, this is not shown in any figure and readers are in the unsatisfying situation that they have to guess, compute these themselves or (and I fear this will happen to most) will remain ignorant of this aspect of the analysis. The remedy is also so very simple: Show the spearman correlation matrix of statics with themselves as a point of reference.
Minor comments
Figures
Please adjust the the font-size of all figures. I am not saying that all figures need to have the same font-size (that would be pedantic), but some of the figures are plotted with font-size that seems to be made for posters or presentations (e.g., Fig. 6 or Fig. E1), while others are very difficult to read on A4 (e.g., Figure B1). On top of that some Fig. 2 and Fig. D1 have very bad quality and should be provided in higher resolution. I will now go through all figures of the main manuscript in detail, but I’d like to mention that the ones in the Appendix would also benefit from some love.Figure 1. This is a great figure. I really like it and it helped me to understand the setup greatly. As a matter of fact, it is the only figure I have nothing to complain about.
Figure 2. Three things: (i) I think it would be good to only use a single figure heading here. The right-hand side of the figure does not profit from having “Gride Evolution” written on top of it. (ii) In the main text you write “GRIDE”, but here you use “Gride”. (iii) Please show all restarts and ENCA models. The plateau that you mention the main text is only really visible for ENCA-27 (left-plot) and there is enough space to show the full information if you make the plot a bit smaller. Or, if you do not like that you could provide the additional plot the appendix (like you do with the correlation matrices). As it is now readers have to trust your statement (and I am sure it is true), when you could just show it.
Table 1. The whole table is extremely wrapped and difficult to read. I think its worth to format it nicer and maybe use two pages if necessary or move it to the Appendix.
Figure 3. I like to propose to add vertical line between the reference models and the ENCA-n (with n > 0) models. That way the plot would become visually much clearer.
Figure 4 and Figure 5. I think the coloring is off. The figure caption says that the color indicates the difference per catchment clipped in [-1,1]. Thus, grey points should be on the 1:1 line. However, at the clipping position s they are not. For example, in Figure 4 the point at [-1,-1] is colored in dark red (indicating that ENCA-3 performs much better than CAAM for this basin). My believe that the coloring happens before the clipping here, however this is nowhere described so I cannot be sure.
Figure 6. See Major comment.
Figure 7. It is unclear what this is. There exist principal components for multiple restarts and readers do not know what restart from Fig. 6 is used here (or whether this is a new run). The figure itself also does not explain what the color-coding is which maps shows which component. I can, of course, infer that the coding is the magnitude of the component (without showing the value range), and the ordering is from left-to-right); but this should not be a leap f faith on part of the reader.
Figure 8. It is difficult to see anything from this figure.
Text
L. 38-39. Isn’t the current analysis also based on predefined model assumptions (just less so)? Like, e.g., that a CNN is appropriated to encode the runoff and that an LSTM is appropriate as decoder.L.49. Technically the first study shows that data-driven approach outperforms process-based model in prediction accuracy. No “might” needed.
L. 50. becuase -> because
L. 50-51. I disagree that sure if the results from Kratzert et al. (2019) suggest that information in the catchment attributes is what was previously not utilized fir streamflow predictions.
L.56. I do not understand what is novel about the architecture. The architecture itself seems to be just a conditional auto-encoder. Maybe I am missing something here though (in which case it would be good if you explain it somewhere).
L.58ff. I argue that it is unclear at this point what a “stochastic model simulator” is. I had to rad the referenced publication by Albert et al. (2002) to figure that out. Therein the system innovations are noise, so I kind off see, how it makes sense. In this study, however, the system innovations are given by meteorological forcing instead of noise. As I see it is not necessary to use this terminology here and the whole paragraph can be shortened, simplified, and made clearer without it. If there is no good argument which I missed, I would therefore propose to avoid it here and then introduce it only in section 2.2.
L.70. You do not benchmark your models at all.
L. 70-71. Long Short Term Memory -> Long Short-Term Memory
L.90 I do not understand the reference to ungauged basins in the first place. Why not use references to gauged basins that use a time-split like you do in this manuscript? Especially, since in that setting it has also been shown that LSTMs tend to outperform classical approaches.
L.91-92. For me, the claim that the resulting knowledge might become useful for ungauged catchments in the future would need a bit more discussion for me, since your approach assumes knowledge of whole hydrographs to synthesize static attributes.
L. 111 The statement that the memory cells of the LSTM are limited by the dimension of the input layer is simply wrong. As a matter of fact, the dimension of the input layer has no influence on the number of memory cells. The hyper-parameter that defines the number of memory cells is the “size of hidden sates” or “hidden size”. Table C2 shows that you have an LSTM hidden size of 256. Hence, this study uses LSTMs with cell states vectors of size 256.
L. 117. I find this not so obvious, given that you use a data-split with validation (hence the training data can be memorized without learning to actually hand over the required information) and that the LSTM has to learn to push this information through it precisely. Checking this claim would be an interesting experiment for the Appendix and provide a useful point of reference for readers.
L. 132. I think it would be interesting if you report the batch statics somewhere (and perhaps compare them to the statics of the attributes).
Section 2.3 I would argue that GRIDE is insufficiently described here. I had to look up the original publications to see what you are doing. I would propose to either describe it on a much higher level, where you try to explain the basic idea of it (and then not introduce the additional notation and perhaps even move Figure 2 to the appendix); or to describe it in more detail so readers learn about the method from the current papers itself (still, I would then suggest to do it without the proofs).
L. 216. I think Kratzert et al. (2019) is not a good reference here, since those results are about ungauged catchments, while here we discuss a gauged setting.
L. 237f. Would be good too see if this pattern is consistent over more than just one model run. But, I can understand if you do not want to make that effort...
L. 252-253. In Fig.6 feature 1 does not seem to be much better correlated to soil attributes than to Climate attributes. Maybe adding the actual correlation values would help readers to see what you mean here.
L. 257ff. Please just show whether this collinearities exist! This can be easily checked, no? It should not be a point of discussion, but a point of analysis.
Sect. 3.3. Interesting discussion.
Sect. 4. It might be good to call the section "Conclusions and outlook" or something similar to accommodate the second part of the section. Else, I really liked the section.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-RC3 -
RC4: 'Short addendum', Daniel Klotz, 24 Mar 2024
Just a short follow-up on Example 1, from my major comment, since after some thinking it became clear to me that it is not very focused: I am aware that having less samples means that you get less parameter updates per epoch and thus it might become necessary to compensate it with training over more epochs. My point is that the setup is fairly different from the one in the reference studies and right now one cannot tell if overfitting happens or not (which then again makes it difficult to interpret the results). That is all.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-RC4 -
AC5: 'Reply on RC3', Alberto Bassi, 09 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters
This contribution explores the creation of learned streamflow representations with an autoencoder based approach. However, I do find the approach very, very cool and do therefore hope that HESS accepts the paper. I do just have a single major point. Alas, I do fear that this point will result in a lot of work for the authors (sorry). Additional, I have a surprising amount of smaller comments. In this regard, I would like to especially point out that the quality of the figure is at time mediocre to bad, and I would wish that the senior author takes more care in proofing these simple things before handing in the manuscript. Reviewers that do not like the basic idea could easily use these superficialities to bombard the overall work. Given these two points I feel obliged to propose a major revisions. But, I do hope that my comments help improve the manuscript so that it becomes HESS ready asap.
Thank you for your comments !
Major comment
My main concern with the paper is the lack of context for the results. Due to the lack of baselines and reference points I was able to understand what the results actually imply. I do not know if it is impossible as such --- but I did read the comments from the other reviews and got the feeling that they had a similar problem (but where not able to address it). Thus, I predict that many readers will be lost. I will now give three examples for what I mean:Example 1: The way the models are setup is rather unique in hydrology and very different from what most readers are currently used to. If I understood what you are doing correctly (which is not easy in the first place). You have around 568 samples of length 15*365=5478 (because you use 15 years of daily data; see: L. 110). For comparison. The most basic machine learning dataset, called MNIST, has 6000 samples of length 28*28=784, and the model trained in Kratzert et al. (2019) is trained in a many-to-one setting resulting in 531*15*365=2907225 samples. Also, the models in Kratzert et al. (2019) are trained for 30 epochs, while the autoencoders in the current publications are trained for 2000 epochs (L. 173).
You are absolutely correct, the architecture we have employed is indeed unique, making direct comparisons with models in existing literature challenging. Our aim is not to outperform state-of-the-art models but rather to extract pertinent features for runoff prediction. To facilitate comparison, we contrast ENCA with a model, CAAM, operating within the same setup but utilising catchment attributes. Our objective is to gauge the learned features against established attributes documented in the literature, necessitating a metric for runoff reconstruction evaluation. It's worth noting that we employ the same dataset as Kratzert et al. (2019), albeit with differing preprocessing approaches. Kratzert et al. (2019, 2021) augmented the dataset, repeating each sample 270 and 365 times respectively, whereas our models utilise each sample only once. Consequently, we incorporate a fully connected layer at the outset to augment model capacity. In fact, we conducted experiments (not detailed in the paper) revealing that without the fully connected layer, the resulting Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is significantly low, averaging around 0.0.
Further, the autoencoders are models with much more capacity than the models that are commonly used for the reference datasets that I just mentioned. To give a rough estimation: The models in Kratzert et al. (2019) ingest approx. 30 inputs and have a hidden size of 250 yielding roughly 260,000 parameters. In contrast, in the current paper the LSTM has the same hidden size, but ingests around 1350 inputs (neglecting the different latents from the CNN for now), which yields a magnitude more parameters. As matter of fact, roughly: 1,650,000. And here I did not even count the parameters of the fully connected part and the convolutional network.
Now, counting the number of parameters and model updates is seldom useful. However, I do have to admit that I was surprised then about the lack of validation split, because I would expect that models this large trained on so few samples will easily overfit. I did therefore make a comparison run where I roughly used the settings from Kratzert et al. (2021) (which is a bit more up-to-date in terms of approach than the ones from the 2019 paper, since it uses different dynamic inputs) but the 15 years training-test split from the current paper. And, without any hyper-parameter tuning, I got a median NSE of 0.8 (And a Bias of 0.0097) after less than 20 epochs . From what I can tell this is better than any of the models presented in this paper (see e.g., Table A1). However, with the current version of the manuscript readers are not made aware of this. Currently, papers like Kratzert et al. (2021) or Klotz et al. (2022), who show current best performances/practices, are not referred to at all and I fear that most will not know such things (and probably not look in the corresponding reference). Even I had too look up the reference results and train a model on CAMELS to get a feeling for the difference in performance --- and I worked with this data for a long period of time now. I think it would be good to provide such results as points of reference for readers. But, I think you should also go further and check if you have an overfitting problem that might corrupt your results; or at least discuss this potential problem in your methodology.
You are correct in noting that the autoencoders possess significantly more capacity compared to commonly used models for reference datasets. The total number of parameters is indeed slightly larger than 3 Millions, while the total number of training samples is 531x5478= 2 908 818, making the network slightly over-parameterized, and potentially leading to overfitting. In order to address this problem, we conducted explicit validation across a different time period: training was conducted using data from the first 15 years, with validation performed on the subsequent 15 years using early stopping (with patience of 2000 epochs) with a maximum of 20 000 epochs. This temporal split ensures that the model's performance is evaluated on unseen data. Moreover, the models were regularised with dropout between layers (with probability=0.4) and the training was stopped with early stopping. We did not consider the test split necessary since we did not perform hyper-parameter selection.
However, even if the models may not overfit the training dataset, the models chosen are the ones with best validation loss (or NSE). This way, we implicitly introduced a bias. In this case a test split would be therefore necessary to obtain unbiased estimates of the NSE values. Nevertheless, we already conducted experiments where the models selected are the last trained models after 10 000 epochs (thus without relying on the validation split and similarly to what was done by Kratzert et al., 2019). This second approach shows similar results to the first one, since the training/validation split was the same and the models converged around 10 000 epochs also in the first approach. This way, the test split is no longer necessary.
Note, however, that this good but low NSE values (compared to state-of-the-art approaches) can also arise due to the long sequences fed to the LSTM decoder, which in our case is 5748, while in the referenced literature this number is significantly lower. We explicitly selected such long sequences in order to extract long-term climate information that cannot be detectable when the fed sequences are on the order of one year (Kratzert et al, 2021) or less (Kratzert et al, 2019).
Example 2: In Figure 6 you show a correlation matrix between the PCA components of ENCA-3 and the catchment attributes. These attributes include the hydrological statics that Kratzert et al. (2019) and you did not use (as a side note: I am not sure if the runoff ration and the streamflow elasticity should be considered climate features). The reason that Kratzert et al (2019) did not use these features is that the model therein is supposed to be a simulation model with the capacity to work everywhere --- even in ungauged settings where such information is not available. I do, however, argue that the current version of the manuscript does not tell readers enough gauge their importance. First: if you argue that the learned features encompass the hydrological attributes then it would be necessary to have references that show how models trained with these attributes actually perform (this can be easily shown by showing the performance of one reference with all the attribtues (including the hyrological ones) and another with just the hydrological ones). Second: To me it seems that the correlation of the PCA components with the static attributes is not enough to judge anything, since I do not know how the static attributes are correlated within themselves. For example: I would expect that is correlated with the Low Q Frequency or the runoff-ratio with the Q Mean. Alas, this is not shown in any figure and readers are in the unsatisfying situation that they have to guess, compute these themselves or (and I fear this will happen to most) will remain ignorant of this aspect of the analysis. The remedy is also so very simple: Show the spearman correlation matrix of statics with themselves as a point of reference.
Regarding the placement of runoff ratio and stream ELAS, we acknowledge your point. Indeed, they share characteristics of both climate attributes and hydrological signatures.
We argue that learnt features encompass catchment attributes (which do not include hydrological signatures). We utilise the hydrological signatures solely for the purpose of comparing the learned features and do not incorporate them into the training of our Catchment Attribute-Augmented Model (CAAM).
Additionally, your suggestion regarding the correlation matrix of static attributes with themselves is well-taken. We agree that this information is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the analysis. To remedy this, we will include the Spearman correlation matrix of static attributes in the appendix of the revised manuscript, providing readers with a clear reference point.
Minor comments
Figures
Please adjust the the font-size of all figures. I am not saying that all figures need to have the same font-size (that would be pedantic), but some of the figures are plotted with font-size that seems to be made for posters or presentations (e.g., Fig. 6 or Fig. E1), while others are very difficult to read on A4 (e.g., Figure B1). On top of that some Fig. 2 and Fig. D1 have very bad quality and should be provided in higher resolution. I will now go through all figures of the main manuscript in detail, but I’d like to mention that the ones in the Appendix would also benefit from some love.Figure 1. This is a great figure. I really like it and it helped me to understand the setup greatly. As a matter of fact, it is the only figure I have nothing to complain about.
Thank you !
Figure 2. Three things: (i) I think it would be good to only use a single figure heading here. The right-hand side of the figure does not profit from having “Gride Evolution” written on top of it. (ii) In the main text you write “GRIDE”, but here you use “Gride”. (iii) Please show all restarts and ENCA models. The plateau that you mention the main text is only really visible for ENCA-27 (left-plot) and there is enough space to show the full information if you make the plot a bit smaller. Or, if you do not like that you could provide the additional plot the appendix (like you do with the correlation matrices). As it is now readers have to trust your statement (and I am sure it is true), when you could just show it.
You are absolutely right! We will include all the restarts in the updated version.
Table 1. The whole table is extremely wrapped and difficult to read. I think its worth to format it nicer and maybe use two pages if necessary or move it to the Appendix.
Thank you, noted ! It will be improved for the revised manuscript.
Figure 3. I like to propose to add vertical line between the reference models and the ENCA-n (with n > 0) models. That way the plot would become visually much clearer.
It is true, we will add it in the revised version.
Figure 4 and Figure 5. I think the coloring is off. The figure caption says that the color indicates the difference per catchment clipped in [-1,1]. Thus, grey points should be on the 1:1 line. However, at the clipping position s they are not. For example, in Figure 4 the point at [-1,-1] is colored in dark red (indicating that ENCA-3 performs much better than CAAM for this basin). My believe that the coloring happens before the clipping here, however this is nowhere described so I cannot be sure.
Yes you are right, in Figure 4 we first colour and then clip. We will explain that more clearly in the revised version.
Figure 6. See Major comment.
Figure 7. It is unclear what this is. There exist principal components for multiple restarts and readers do not know what restart from Fig. 6 is used here (or whether this is a new run). The figure itself also does not explain what the color-coding is which maps shows which component. I can, of course, infer that the coding is the magnitude of the component (without showing the value range), and the ordering is from left-to-right); but this should not be a leap f faith on part of the reader.
You are right ! They are the principal components (ordered from the left) of the first restart. We agree that this figure needs the labels and the colour-coding explanation. We will add it into the revised version of the manuscript.
Figure 8. It is difficult to see anything from this figure.
L. 38-39. Isn’t the current analysis also based on predefined model assumptions (just less so)? Like, e.g., that a CNN is appropriated to encode the runoff and that an LSTM is appropriate as decoder.
L.49. Technically the first study shows that data-driven approach outperforms process-based model in prediction accuracy. No “might” needed.
Right, noted !
- 50. becuase -> because
- 50-51. I disagree that sure if the results from Kratzert et al. (2019) suggest that information in the catchment attributes is what was previously not utilized fir streamflow predictions.
We mean that catchment attributes encapsulate information not previously utilised in conceptual models.
L.56. I do not understand what is novel about the architecture. The architecture itself seems to be just a conditional auto-encoder. Maybe I am missing something here though (in which case it would be good if you explain it somewhere).
Rephrase: first time used in hydrology
L.58ff. I argue that it is unclear at this point what a “stochastic model simulator” is. I had to rad the referenced publication by Albert et al. (2002) to figure that out. Therein the system innovations are noise, so I kind off see, how it makes sense. In this study, however, the system innovations are given by meteorological forcing instead of noise. As I see it is not necessary to use this terminology here and the whole paragraph can be shortened, simplified, and made clearer without it. If there is no good argument which I missed, I would therefore propose to avoid it here and then introduce it only in section 2.2.
Ok, noted !
L.70. You do not benchmark your models at all.
Against our CAAM.
- 70-71. Long Short Term Memory -> Long Short-Term Memory
Thank you, noted !
L.90 I do not understand the reference to ungauged basins in the first place. Why not use references to gauged basins that use a time-split like you do in this manuscript? Especially, since in that setting it has also been shown that LSTMs tend to outperform classical approaches.
You are right, it is a typo that we will rephrase.
L.91-92. For me, the claim that the resulting knowledge might become useful for ungauged catchments in the future would need a bit more discussion for me, since your approach assumes knowledge of whole hydrographs to synthesize static attributes.
Thanks for your valuable insight. With this approach we can learn which attributes are more important and then use them in the ungauged setting. But we agree than it needs more explanation.
- 111 The statement that the memory cells of the LSTM are limited by the dimension of the input layer is simply wrong. As a matter of fact, the dimension of the input layer has no influence on the number of memory cells. The hyper-parameter that defines the number of memory cells is the “size of hidden sates” or “hidden size”. Table C2 shows that you have an LSTM hidden size of 256. Hence, this study uses LSTMs with cell states vectors of size 256.
You are right. Sorry for the confusion, we meant the network capacity.
- 117. I find this not so obvious, given that you use a data-split with validation (hence the training data can be memorized without learning to actually hand over the required information) and that the LSTM has to learn to push this information through it precisely. Checking this claim would be an interesting experiment for the Appendix and provide a useful point of reference for readers.
It is indeed interesting and we will try to add it into the next version.
- 132. I think it would be interesting if you report the batch statics somewhere (and perhaps compare them to the statics of the attributes).
What do you mean by batch statics?
Section 2.3 I would argue that GRIDE is insufficiently described here. I had to look up the original publications to see what you are doing. I would propose to either describe it on a much higher level, where you try to explain the basic idea of it (and then not introduce the additional notation and perhaps even move Figure 2 to the appendix); or to describe it in more detail so readers learn about the method from the current papers itself (still, I would then suggest to do it without the proofs).
- 216. I think Kratzert et al. (2019) is not a good reference here, since those results are about ungauged catchments, while here we discuss a gauged setting.
In Kratzert et al (2019) there are however a lot of results regarding the ungauged settings, what were called “global” models.
- 237f. Would be good too see if this pattern is consistent over more than just one model run. But, I can understand if you do not want to make that effort...
Thank you for your comment. Could you please be a little bit more specific on the clarification needed?
- 252-253. In Fig.6 feature 1 does not seem to be much better correlated to soil attributes than to Climate attributes. Maybe adding the actual correlation values would help readers to see what you mean here.
Thank you for your comment. It would indeed help, even if however should be already clear from the colour. We will add the actual values for more clairity.
- 257ff. Please just show whether this collinearities exist! This can be easily checked, no? It should not be a point of discussion, but a point of analysis.
You are right, we will analyse this collinearities.
Sect. 3.3. Interesting discussion.
Sect. 4. It might be good to call the section "Conclusions and outlook" or something similar to accommodate the second part of the section. Else, I really liked the section.Agree, we will rephrase
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC5
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AC5: 'Reply on RC3', Alberto Bassi, 09 Apr 2024
-
AC5: 'Reply on RC3', Alberto Bassi, 09 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters
This contribution explores the creation of learned streamflow representations with an autoencoder based approach. However, I do find the approach very, very cool and do therefore hope that HESS accepts the paper. I do just have a single major point. Alas, I do fear that this point will result in a lot of work for the authors (sorry). Additional, I have a surprising amount of smaller comments. In this regard, I would like to especially point out that the quality of the figure is at time mediocre to bad, and I would wish that the senior author takes more care in proofing these simple things before handing in the manuscript. Reviewers that do not like the basic idea could easily use these superficialities to bombard the overall work. Given these two points I feel obliged to propose a major revisions. But, I do hope that my comments help improve the manuscript so that it becomes HESS ready asap.
Thank you for your comments !
Major comment
My main concern with the paper is the lack of context for the results. Due to the lack of baselines and reference points I was able to understand what the results actually imply. I do not know if it is impossible as such --- but I did read the comments from the other reviews and got the feeling that they had a similar problem (but where not able to address it). Thus, I predict that many readers will be lost. I will now give three examples for what I mean:Example 1: The way the models are setup is rather unique in hydrology and very different from what most readers are currently used to. If I understood what you are doing correctly (which is not easy in the first place). You have around 568 samples of length 15*365=5478 (because you use 15 years of daily data; see: L. 110). For comparison. The most basic machine learning dataset, called MNIST, has 6000 samples of length 28*28=784, and the model trained in Kratzert et al. (2019) is trained in a many-to-one setting resulting in 531*15*365=2907225 samples. Also, the models in Kratzert et al. (2019) are trained for 30 epochs, while the autoencoders in the current publications are trained for 2000 epochs (L. 173).
You are absolutely correct, the architecture we have employed is indeed unique, making direct comparisons with models in existing literature challenging. Our aim is not to outperform state-of-the-art models but rather to extract pertinent features for runoff prediction. To facilitate comparison, we contrast ENCA with a model, CAAM, operating within the same setup but utilising catchment attributes. Our objective is to gauge the learned features against established attributes documented in the literature, necessitating a metric for runoff reconstruction evaluation. It's worth noting that we employ the same dataset as Kratzert et al. (2019), albeit with differing preprocessing approaches. Kratzert et al. (2019, 2021) augmented the dataset, repeating each sample 270 and 365 times respectively, whereas our models utilise each sample only once. Consequently, we incorporate a fully connected layer at the outset to augment model capacity. In fact, we conducted experiments (not detailed in the paper) revealing that without the fully connected layer, the resulting Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is significantly low, averaging around 0.0.
Further, the autoencoders are models with much more capacity than the models that are commonly used for the reference datasets that I just mentioned. To give a rough estimation: The models in Kratzert et al. (2019) ingest approx. 30 inputs and have a hidden size of 250 yielding roughly 260,000 parameters. In contrast, in the current paper the LSTM has the same hidden size, but ingests around 1350 inputs (neglecting the different latents from the CNN for now), which yields a magnitude more parameters. As matter of fact, roughly: 1,650,000. And here I did not even count the parameters of the fully connected part and the convolutional network.
Now, counting the number of parameters and model updates is seldom useful. However, I do have to admit that I was surprised then about the lack of validation split, because I would expect that models this large trained on so few samples will easily overfit. I did therefore make a comparison run where I roughly used the settings from Kratzert et al. (2021) (which is a bit more up-to-date in terms of approach than the ones from the 2019 paper, since it uses different dynamic inputs) but the 15 years training-test split from the current paper. And, without any hyper-parameter tuning, I got a median NSE of 0.8 (And a Bias of 0.0097) after less than 20 epochs . From what I can tell this is better than any of the models presented in this paper (see e.g., Table A1). However, with the current version of the manuscript readers are not made aware of this. Currently, papers like Kratzert et al. (2021) or Klotz et al. (2022), who show current best performances/practices, are not referred to at all and I fear that most will not know such things (and probably not look in the corresponding reference). Even I had too look up the reference results and train a model on CAMELS to get a feeling for the difference in performance --- and I worked with this data for a long period of time now. I think it would be good to provide such results as points of reference for readers. But, I think you should also go further and check if you have an overfitting problem that might corrupt your results; or at least discuss this potential problem in your methodology.
You are correct in noting that the autoencoders possess significantly more capacity compared to commonly used models for reference datasets. The total number of parameters is indeed slightly larger than 3 Millions, while the total number of training samples is 531x5478= 2 908 818, making the network slightly over-parameterized, and potentially leading to overfitting. In order to address this problem, we conducted explicit validation across a different time period: training was conducted using data from the first 15 years, with validation performed on the subsequent 15 years using early stopping (with patience of 2000 epochs) with a maximum of 20 000 epochs. This temporal split ensures that the model's performance is evaluated on unseen data. Moreover, the models were regularised with dropout between layers (with probability=0.4) and the training was stopped with early stopping. We did not consider the test split necessary since we did not perform hyper-parameter selection.
However, even if the models may not overfit the training dataset, the models chosen are the ones with best validation loss (or NSE). This way, we implicitly introduced a bias. In this case a test split would be therefore necessary to obtain unbiased estimates of the NSE values. Nevertheless, we already conducted experiments where the models selected are the last trained models after 10 000 epochs (thus without relying on the validation split and similarly to what was done by Kratzert et al., 2019). This second approach shows similar results to the first one, since the training/validation split was the same and the models converged around 10 000 epochs also in the first approach. This way, the test split is no longer necessary.
Note, however, that this good but low NSE values (compared to state-of-the-art approaches) can also arise due to the long sequences fed to the LSTM decoder, which in our case is 5748, while in the referenced literature this number is significantly lower. We explicitly selected such long sequences in order to extract long-term climate information that cannot be detectable when the fed sequences are on the order of one year (Kratzert et al, 2021) or less (Kratzert et al, 2019).
Example 2: In Figure 6 you show a correlation matrix between the PCA components of ENCA-3 and the catchment attributes. These attributes include the hydrological statics that Kratzert et al. (2019) and you did not use (as a side note: I am not sure if the runoff ration and the streamflow elasticity should be considered climate features). The reason that Kratzert et al (2019) did not use these features is that the model therein is supposed to be a simulation model with the capacity to work everywhere --- even in ungauged settings where such information is not available. I do, however, argue that the current version of the manuscript does not tell readers enough gauge their importance. First: if you argue that the learned features encompass the hydrological attributes then it would be necessary to have references that show how models trained with these attributes actually perform (this can be easily shown by showing the performance of one reference with all the attribtues (including the hyrological ones) and another with just the hydrological ones). Second: To me it seems that the correlation of the PCA components with the static attributes is not enough to judge anything, since I do not know how the static attributes are correlated within themselves. For example: I would expect that is correlated with the Low Q Frequency or the runoff-ratio with the Q Mean. Alas, this is not shown in any figure and readers are in the unsatisfying situation that they have to guess, compute these themselves or (and I fear this will happen to most) will remain ignorant of this aspect of the analysis. The remedy is also so very simple: Show the spearman correlation matrix of statics with themselves as a point of reference.
Regarding the placement of runoff ratio and stream ELAS, we acknowledge your point. Indeed, they share characteristics of both climate attributes and hydrological signatures.
We argue that learnt features encompass catchment attributes (which do not include hydrological signatures). We utilise the hydrological signatures solely for the purpose of comparing the learned features and do not incorporate them into the training of our Catchment Attribute-Augmented Model (CAAM).
Additionally, your suggestion regarding the correlation matrix of static attributes with themselves is well-taken. We agree that this information is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the analysis. To remedy this, we will include the Spearman correlation matrix of static attributes in the appendix of the revised manuscript, providing readers with a clear reference point.
Minor comments
Figures
Please adjust the the font-size of all figures. I am not saying that all figures need to have the same font-size (that would be pedantic), but some of the figures are plotted with font-size that seems to be made for posters or presentations (e.g., Fig. 6 or Fig. E1), while others are very difficult to read on A4 (e.g., Figure B1). On top of that some Fig. 2 and Fig. D1 have very bad quality and should be provided in higher resolution. I will now go through all figures of the main manuscript in detail, but I’d like to mention that the ones in the Appendix would also benefit from some love.Figure 1. This is a great figure. I really like it and it helped me to understand the setup greatly. As a matter of fact, it is the only figure I have nothing to complain about.
Thank you !
Figure 2. Three things: (i) I think it would be good to only use a single figure heading here. The right-hand side of the figure does not profit from having “Gride Evolution” written on top of it. (ii) In the main text you write “GRIDE”, but here you use “Gride”. (iii) Please show all restarts and ENCA models. The plateau that you mention the main text is only really visible for ENCA-27 (left-plot) and there is enough space to show the full information if you make the plot a bit smaller. Or, if you do not like that you could provide the additional plot the appendix (like you do with the correlation matrices). As it is now readers have to trust your statement (and I am sure it is true), when you could just show it.
You are absolutely right! We will include all the restarts in the updated version.
Table 1. The whole table is extremely wrapped and difficult to read. I think its worth to format it nicer and maybe use two pages if necessary or move it to the Appendix.
Thank you, noted ! It will be improved for the revised manuscript.
Figure 3. I like to propose to add vertical line between the reference models and the ENCA-n (with n > 0) models. That way the plot would become visually much clearer.
It is true, we will add it in the revised version.
Figure 4 and Figure 5. I think the coloring is off. The figure caption says that the color indicates the difference per catchment clipped in [-1,1]. Thus, grey points should be on the 1:1 line. However, at the clipping position s they are not. For example, in Figure 4 the point at [-1,-1] is colored in dark red (indicating that ENCA-3 performs much better than CAAM for this basin). My believe that the coloring happens before the clipping here, however this is nowhere described so I cannot be sure.
Yes you are right, in Figure 4 we first colour and then clip. We will explain that more clearly in the revised version.
Figure 6. See Major comment.
Figure 7. It is unclear what this is. There exist principal components for multiple restarts and readers do not know what restart from Fig. 6 is used here (or whether this is a new run). The figure itself also does not explain what the color-coding is which maps shows which component. I can, of course, infer that the coding is the magnitude of the component (without showing the value range), and the ordering is from left-to-right); but this should not be a leap f faith on part of the reader.
You are right ! They are the principal components (ordered from the left) of the first restart. We agree that this figure needs the labels and the colour-coding explanation. We will add it into the revised version of the manuscript.
Figure 8. It is difficult to see anything from this figure.
L. 38-39. Isn’t the current analysis also based on predefined model assumptions (just less so)? Like, e.g., that a CNN is appropriated to encode the runoff and that an LSTM is appropriate as decoder.
L.49. Technically the first study shows that data-driven approach outperforms process-based model in prediction accuracy. No “might” needed.
Right, noted !
- 50. becuase -> because
- 50-51. I disagree that sure if the results from Kratzert et al. (2019) suggest that information in the catchment attributes is what was previously not utilized fir streamflow predictions.
We mean that catchment attributes encapsulate information not previously utilised in conceptual models.
L.56. I do not understand what is novel about the architecture. The architecture itself seems to be just a conditional auto-encoder. Maybe I am missing something here though (in which case it would be good if you explain it somewhere).
Rephrase: first time used in hydrology
L.58ff. I argue that it is unclear at this point what a “stochastic model simulator” is. I had to rad the referenced publication by Albert et al. (2002) to figure that out. Therein the system innovations are noise, so I kind off see, how it makes sense. In this study, however, the system innovations are given by meteorological forcing instead of noise. As I see it is not necessary to use this terminology here and the whole paragraph can be shortened, simplified, and made clearer without it. If there is no good argument which I missed, I would therefore propose to avoid it here and then introduce it only in section 2.2.
Ok, noted !
L.70. You do not benchmark your models at all.
Against our CAAM.
- 70-71. Long Short Term Memory -> Long Short-Term Memory
Thank you, noted !
L.90 I do not understand the reference to ungauged basins in the first place. Why not use references to gauged basins that use a time-split like you do in this manuscript? Especially, since in that setting it has also been shown that LSTMs tend to outperform classical approaches.
You are right, it is a typo that we will rephrase.
L.91-92. For me, the claim that the resulting knowledge might become useful for ungauged catchments in the future would need a bit more discussion for me, since your approach assumes knowledge of whole hydrographs to synthesize static attributes.
Thanks for your valuable insight. With this approach we can learn which attributes are more important and then use them in the ungauged setting. But we agree than it needs more explanation.
- 111 The statement that the memory cells of the LSTM are limited by the dimension of the input layer is simply wrong. As a matter of fact, the dimension of the input layer has no influence on the number of memory cells. The hyper-parameter that defines the number of memory cells is the “size of hidden sates” or “hidden size”. Table C2 shows that you have an LSTM hidden size of 256. Hence, this study uses LSTMs with cell states vectors of size 256.
You are right. Sorry for the confusion, we meant the network capacity.
- 117. I find this not so obvious, given that you use a data-split with validation (hence the training data can be memorized without learning to actually hand over the required information) and that the LSTM has to learn to push this information through it precisely. Checking this claim would be an interesting experiment for the Appendix and provide a useful point of reference for readers.
It is indeed interesting and we will try to add it into the next version.
- 132. I think it would be interesting if you report the batch statics somewhere (and perhaps compare them to the statics of the attributes).
What do you mean by batch statics?
Section 2.3 I would argue that GRIDE is insufficiently described here. I had to look up the original publications to see what you are doing. I would propose to either describe it on a much higher level, where you try to explain the basic idea of it (and then not introduce the additional notation and perhaps even move Figure 2 to the appendix); or to describe it in more detail so readers learn about the method from the current papers itself (still, I would then suggest to do it without the proofs).
- 216. I think Kratzert et al. (2019) is not a good reference here, since those results are about ungauged catchments, while here we discuss a gauged setting.
In Kratzert et al (2019) there are however a lot of results regarding the ungauged settings, what were called “global” models.
- 237f. Would be good too see if this pattern is consistent over more than just one model run. But, I can understand if you do not want to make that effort...
Thank you for your comment. Could you please be a little bit more specific on the clarification needed?
- 252-253. In Fig.6 feature 1 does not seem to be much better correlated to soil attributes than to Climate attributes. Maybe adding the actual correlation values would help readers to see what you mean here.
Thank you for your comment. It would indeed help, even if however should be already clear from the colour. We will add the actual values for more clairity.
- 257ff. Please just show whether this collinearities exist! This can be easily checked, no? It should not be a point of discussion, but a point of analysis.
You are right, we will analyse this collinearities.
Sect. 3.3. Interesting discussion.
Sect. 4. It might be good to call the section "Conclusions and outlook" or something similar to accommodate the second part of the section. Else, I really liked the section.Agree, we will rephrase
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC5 -
AC6: 'Reply on RC3', Alberto Bassi, 09 Apr 2024
Note to the answers: authors' answers are marked in bold characters
This contribution explores the creation of learned streamflow representations with an autoencoder based approach. However, I do find the approach very, very cool and do therefore hope that HESS accepts the paper. I do just have a single major point. Alas, I do fear that this point will result in a lot of work for the authors (sorry). Additional, I have a surprising amount of smaller comments. In this regard, I would like to especially point out that the quality of the figure is at time mediocre to bad, and I would wish that the senior author takes more care in proofing these simple things before handing in the manuscript. Reviewers that do not like the basic idea could easily use these superficialities to bombard the overall work. Given these two points I feel obliged to propose a major revisions. But, I do hope that my comments help improve the manuscript so that it becomes HESS ready asap.
Thank you for your comments !
Major comment
My main concern with the paper is the lack of context for the results. Due to the lack of baselines and reference points I was able to understand what the results actually imply. I do not know if it is impossible as such --- but I did read the comments from the other reviews and got the feeling that they had a similar problem (but where not able to address it). Thus, I predict that many readers will be lost. I will now give three examples for what I mean:Example 1: The way the models are setup is rather unique in hydrology and very different from what most readers are currently used to. If I understood what you are doing correctly (which is not easy in the first place). You have around 568 samples of length 15*365=5478 (because you use 15 years of daily data; see: L. 110). For comparison. The most basic machine learning dataset, called MNIST, has 6000 samples of length 28*28=784, and the model trained in Kratzert et al. (2019) is trained in a many-to-one setting resulting in 531*15*365=2907225 samples. Also, the models in Kratzert et al. (2019) are trained for 30 epochs, while the autoencoders in the current publications are trained for 2000 epochs (L. 173).
You are absolutely correct, the architecture we have employed is indeed unique, making direct comparisons with models in existing literature challenging. Our aim is not to outperform state-of-the-art models but rather to extract pertinent features for runoff prediction. To facilitate comparison, we contrast ENCA with a model, CAAM, operating within the same setup but utilising catchment attributes. Our objective is to gauge the learned features against established attributes documented in the literature, necessitating a metric for runoff reconstruction evaluation. It's worth noting that we employ the same dataset as Kratzert et al. (2019), albeit with differing preprocessing approaches. Kratzert et al. (2019, 2021) augmented the dataset, repeating each sample 270 and 365 times respectively, whereas our models utilise each sample only once. Consequently, we incorporate a fully connected layer at the outset to augment model capacity. In fact, we conducted experiments (not detailed in the paper) revealing that without the fully connected layer, the resulting Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is significantly low, averaging around 0.0.
Further, the autoencoders are models with much more capacity than the models that are commonly used for the reference datasets that I just mentioned. To give a rough estimation: The models in Kratzert et al. (2019) ingest approx. 30 inputs and have a hidden size of 250 yielding roughly 260,000 parameters. In contrast, in the current paper the LSTM has the same hidden size, but ingests around 1350 inputs (neglecting the different latents from the CNN for now), which yields a magnitude more parameters. As matter of fact, roughly: 1,650,000. And here I did not even count the parameters of the fully connected part and the convolutional network.
Now, counting the number of parameters and model updates is seldom useful. However, I do have to admit that I was surprised then about the lack of validation split, because I would expect that models this large trained on so few samples will easily overfit. I did therefore make a comparison run where I roughly used the settings from Kratzert et al. (2021) (which is a bit more up-to-date in terms of approach than the ones from the 2019 paper, since it uses different dynamic inputs) but the 15 years training-test split from the current paper. And, without any hyper-parameter tuning, I got a median NSE of 0.8 (And a Bias of 0.0097) after less than 20 epochs . From what I can tell this is better than any of the models presented in this paper (see e.g., Table A1). However, with the current version of the manuscript readers are not made aware of this. Currently, papers like Kratzert et al. (2021) or Klotz et al. (2022), who show current best performances/practices, are not referred to at all and I fear that most will not know such things (and probably not look in the corresponding reference). Even I had too look up the reference results and train a model on CAMELS to get a feeling for the difference in performance --- and I worked with this data for a long period of time now. I think it would be good to provide such results as points of reference for readers. But, I think you should also go further and check if you have an overfitting problem that might corrupt your results; or at least discuss this potential problem in your methodology.
You are correct in noting that the autoencoders possess significantly more capacity compared to commonly used models for reference datasets. The total number of parameters is indeed slightly larger than 3 Millions, while the total number of training samples is 531x5478= 2 908 818, making the network slightly over-parameterized, and potentially leading to overfitting. In order to address this problem, we conducted explicit validation across a different time period: training was conducted using data from the first 15 years, with validation performed on the subsequent 15 years using early stopping (with patience of 2000 epochs) with a maximum of 20 000 epochs. This temporal split ensures that the model's performance is evaluated on unseen data. Moreover, the models were regularised with dropout between layers (with probability=0.4) and the training was stopped with early stopping. We did not consider the test split necessary since we did not perform hyper-parameter selection.
However, even if the models may not overfit the training dataset, the models chosen are the ones with best validation loss (or NSE). This way, we implicitly introduced a bias. In this case a test split would be therefore necessary to obtain unbiased estimates of the NSE values. Nevertheless, we already conducted experiments where the models selected are the last trained models after 10 000 epochs (thus without relying on the validation split and similarly to what was done by Kratzert et al., 2019). This second approach shows similar results to the first one, since the training/validation split was the same and the models converged around 10 000 epochs also in the first approach. This way, the test split is no longer necessary.
Note, however, that this good but low NSE values (compared to state-of-the-art approaches) can also arise due to the long sequences fed to the LSTM decoder, which in our case is 5748, while in the referenced literature this number is significantly lower. We explicitly selected such long sequences in order to extract long-term climate information that cannot be detectable when the fed sequences are on the order of one year (Kratzert et al, 2021) or less (Kratzert et al, 2019).
Example 2: In Figure 6 you show a correlation matrix between the PCA components of ENCA-3 and the catchment attributes. These attributes include the hydrological statics that Kratzert et al. (2019) and you did not use (as a side note: I am not sure if the runoff ration and the streamflow elasticity should be considered climate features). The reason that Kratzert et al (2019) did not use these features is that the model therein is supposed to be a simulation model with the capacity to work everywhere --- even in ungauged settings where such information is not available. I do, however, argue that the current version of the manuscript does not tell readers enough gauge their importance. First: if you argue that the learned features encompass the hydrological attributes then it would be necessary to have references that show how models trained with these attributes actually perform (this can be easily shown by showing the performance of one reference with all the attribtues (including the hyrological ones) and another with just the hydrological ones). Second: To me it seems that the correlation of the PCA components with the static attributes is not enough to judge anything, since I do not know how the static attributes are correlated within themselves. For example: I would expect that is correlated with the Low Q Frequency or the runoff-ratio with the Q Mean. Alas, this is not shown in any figure and readers are in the unsatisfying situation that they have to guess, compute these themselves or (and I fear this will happen to most) will remain ignorant of this aspect of the analysis. The remedy is also so very simple: Show the spearman correlation matrix of statics with themselves as a point of reference.
Regarding the placement of runoff ratio and stream ELAS, we acknowledge your point. Indeed, they share characteristics of both climate attributes and hydrological signatures.
We argue that learnt features encompass catchment attributes (which do not include hydrological signatures). We utilise the hydrological signatures solely for the purpose of comparing the learned features and do not incorporate them into the training of our Catchment Attribute-Augmented Model (CAAM).
Additionally, your suggestion regarding the correlation matrix of static attributes with themselves is well-taken. We agree that this information is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the analysis. To remedy this, we will include the Spearman correlation matrix of static attributes in the appendix of the revised manuscript, providing readers with a clear reference point.
Minor comments
Figures
Please adjust the the font-size of all figures. I am not saying that all figures need to have the same font-size (that would be pedantic), but some of the figures are plotted with font-size that seems to be made for posters or presentations (e.g., Fig. 6 or Fig. E1), while others are very difficult to read on A4 (e.g., Figure B1). On top of that some Fig. 2 and Fig. D1 have very bad quality and should be provided in higher resolution. I will now go through all figures of the main manuscript in detail, but I’d like to mention that the ones in the Appendix would also benefit from some love.Figure 1. This is a great figure. I really like it and it helped me to understand the setup greatly. As a matter of fact, it is the only figure I have nothing to complain about.
Thank you !
Figure 2. Three things: (i) I think it would be good to only use a single figure heading here. The right-hand side of the figure does not profit from having “Gride Evolution” written on top of it. (ii) In the main text you write “GRIDE”, but here you use “Gride”. (iii) Please show all restarts and ENCA models. The plateau that you mention the main text is only really visible for ENCA-27 (left-plot) and there is enough space to show the full information if you make the plot a bit smaller. Or, if you do not like that you could provide the additional plot the appendix (like you do with the correlation matrices). As it is now readers have to trust your statement (and I am sure it is true), when you could just show it.
You are absolutely right! We will include all the restarts in the updated version.
Table 1. The whole table is extremely wrapped and difficult to read. I think its worth to format it nicer and maybe use two pages if necessary or move it to the Appendix.
Thank you, noted ! It will be improved for the revised manuscript.
Figure 3. I like to propose to add vertical line between the reference models and the ENCA-n (with n > 0) models. That way the plot would become visually much clearer.
It is true, we will add it in the revised version.
Figure 4 and Figure 5. I think the coloring is off. The figure caption says that the color indicates the difference per catchment clipped in [-1,1]. Thus, grey points should be on the 1:1 line. However, at the clipping position s they are not. For example, in Figure 4 the point at [-1,-1] is colored in dark red (indicating that ENCA-3 performs much better than CAAM for this basin). My believe that the coloring happens before the clipping here, however this is nowhere described so I cannot be sure.
Yes you are right, in Figure 4 we first colour and then clip. We will explain that more clearly in the revised version.
Figure 6. See Major comment.
Figure 7. It is unclear what this is. There exist principal components for multiple restarts and readers do not know what restart from Fig. 6 is used here (or whether this is a new run). The figure itself also does not explain what the color-coding is which maps shows which component. I can, of course, infer that the coding is the magnitude of the component (without showing the value range), and the ordering is from left-to-right); but this should not be a leap f faith on part of the reader.
You are right ! They are the principal components (ordered from the left) of the first restart. We agree that this figure needs the labels and the colour-coding explanation. We will add it into the revised version of the manuscript.
Figure 8. It is difficult to see anything from this figure.
L. 38-39. Isn’t the current analysis also based on predefined model assumptions (just less so)? Like, e.g., that a CNN is appropriated to encode the runoff and that an LSTM is appropriate as decoder.
L.49. Technically the first study shows that data-driven approach outperforms process-based model in prediction accuracy. No “might” needed.
Right, noted !
- 50. becuase -> because
- 50-51. I disagree that sure if the results from Kratzert et al. (2019) suggest that information in the catchment attributes is what was previously not utilized fir streamflow predictions.
We mean that catchment attributes encapsulate information not previously utilised in conceptual models.
L.56. I do not understand what is novel about the architecture. The architecture itself seems to be just a conditional auto-encoder. Maybe I am missing something here though (in which case it would be good if you explain it somewhere).
Rephrase: first time used in hydrology
L.58ff. I argue that it is unclear at this point what a “stochastic model simulator” is. I had to rad the referenced publication by Albert et al. (2002) to figure that out. Therein the system innovations are noise, so I kind off see, how it makes sense. In this study, however, the system innovations are given by meteorological forcing instead of noise. As I see it is not necessary to use this terminology here and the whole paragraph can be shortened, simplified, and made clearer without it. If there is no good argument which I missed, I would therefore propose to avoid it here and then introduce it only in section 2.2.
Ok, noted !
L.70. You do not benchmark your models at all.
Against our CAAM.
- 70-71. Long Short Term Memory -> Long Short-Term Memory
Thank you, noted !
L.90 I do not understand the reference to ungauged basins in the first place. Why not use references to gauged basins that use a time-split like you do in this manuscript? Especially, since in that setting it has also been shown that LSTMs tend to outperform classical approaches.
You are right, it is a typo that we will rephrase.
L.91-92. For me, the claim that the resulting knowledge might become useful for ungauged catchments in the future would need a bit more discussion for me, since your approach assumes knowledge of whole hydrographs to synthesize static attributes.
Thanks for your valuable insight. With this approach we can learn which attributes are more important and then use them in the ungauged setting. But we agree than it needs more explanation.
- 111 The statement that the memory cells of the LSTM are limited by the dimension of the input layer is simply wrong. As a matter of fact, the dimension of the input layer has no influence on the number of memory cells. The hyper-parameter that defines the number of memory cells is the “size of hidden sates” or “hidden size”. Table C2 shows that you have an LSTM hidden size of 256. Hence, this study uses LSTMs with cell states vectors of size 256.
You are right. Sorry for the confusion, we meant the network capacity.
- 117. I find this not so obvious, given that you use a data-split with validation (hence the training data can be memorized without learning to actually hand over the required information) and that the LSTM has to learn to push this information through it precisely. Checking this claim would be an interesting experiment for the Appendix and provide a useful point of reference for readers.
It is indeed interesting and we will try to add it into the next version.
- 132. I think it would be interesting if you report the batch statics somewhere (and perhaps compare them to the statics of the attributes).
What do you mean by batch statics?
Section 2.3 I would argue that GRIDE is insufficiently described here. I had to look up the original publications to see what you are doing. I would propose to either describe it on a much higher level, where you try to explain the basic idea of it (and then not introduce the additional notation and perhaps even move Figure 2 to the appendix); or to describe it in more detail so readers learn about the method from the current papers itself (still, I would then suggest to do it without the proofs).
- 216. I think Kratzert et al. (2019) is not a good reference here, since those results are about ungauged catchments, while here we discuss a gauged setting.
In Kratzert et al (2019) there are however a lot of results regarding the ungauged settings, what were called “global” models.
- 237f. Would be good too see if this pattern is consistent over more than just one model run. But, I can understand if you do not want to make that effort...
Thank you for your comment. Could you please be a little bit more specific on the clarification needed?
- 252-253. In Fig.6 feature 1 does not seem to be much better correlated to soil attributes than to Climate attributes. Maybe adding the actual correlation values would help readers to see what you mean here.
Thank you for your comment. It would indeed help, even if however should be already clear from the colour. We will add the actual values for more clairity.
- 257ff. Please just show whether this collinearities exist! This can be easily checked, no? It should not be a point of discussion, but a point of analysis.
You are right, we will analyse this collinearities.
Sect. 3.3. Interesting discussion.
Sect. 4. It might be good to call the section "Conclusions and outlook" or something similar to accommodate the second part of the section. Else, I really liked the section.Agree, we will rephrase
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-47-AC6
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RC4: 'Short addendum', Daniel Klotz, 24 Mar 2024
Data sets
CAMELS: Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies A. Newman, K. Sampson, M. P. Clark, A. Bock, R. J. Viger, and D. Blodgett https://ral.ucar.edu/solutions/products/camels
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