Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-20
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-20
 
19 Jan 2023
19 Jan 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Floods and droughts: a multivariate perspective on hazard estimation

Manuela Irene Brunner1,2,3 Manuela Irene Brunner
  • 1WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
  • 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 3Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, Davos Dorf, Switzerland

Abstract. Multivariate hydrological extreme events such as successive floods, large-scale droughts, or consecutive drought-to-flood events challenge water management and can be particularly impactful. Still, the multivariate nature of floods and droughts is often ignored by studying them from a univariate perspective, which can lead to risk under- or overestimation. Studying multivariate extremes is challenging because of variable dependencies and because they are even less abundant in observational records than univariate extremes. In this review, I discuss different types of multivariate hydrological extremes and their dependencies including regional extremes affecting multiple locations such as spatially connected flood events, consecutive extremes occurring in close temporal succession such as successive droughts, extremes characterized by multiple characteristics such as floods with jointly high peak discharge and flood volume, and transitions between different types of extremes such as drought-to-flood transitions. I present different strategies to describe and model multivariate extremes, and to assess their hazard potential including multivariate distributions and return periods as well as stochastic and large-ensemble simulation approaches. The strategies discussed enable a multivariate perspective in hydrological hazard assessments, which allows us to derive more comprehensive risk estimates than the classical univariate perspective commonly applied.

Manuela Irene Brunner

Status: open (until 16 Mar 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Manuela Irene Brunner

Manuela Irene Brunner

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Short summary
In this review, I discuss different types of multivariate hydrological extremes and their dependencies including regional extremes affecting multiple locations such as spatially connected flood events, consecutive extremes occurring in close temporal succession such as successive droughts, extremes characterized by multiple characteristics such as floods with jointly high peak discharge and flood volume, and transitions between different types of extremes such as drought-to-flood transitions.