Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-189
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-189
21 Sep 2023
 | 21 Sep 2023
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal HESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Climate-change impact on reservoir evaporation and water availability in a tropical sub-humid region, north-eastern Brazil

Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo

Abstract. The potential effects of climatic changes on water resources are crucial to be assessed, particularly in dry regions such as Northeast Brazil (1 million km2), where water supply is highly reliant on open-water reservoirs. This study analyses the impact of evaporation (by the Penman method) on water availability for four scenarios based on two regional climatic models (Eta-CanESM2 and Eta-MIROC5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. We compared the water availability in the period of 2071–2100 with that of the historical period (1961–2005). The scenarios derived from the Eta-CanESM2 model indicate an increase in dry season evaporative rate (2 % and 6 %, respectively) by the end of the century. Unlike the above scenarios, the ones derived from the Eta-MIROC5 model both show a decrease in dry season evaporative rate of −2 %. Consequently, for a 90 % reliability level, the expected reservoir capacity to supply water with high reliability is reduced in 80 %. It is reasonable to state that both patterns of future evaporation in the reservoirs may prove to be plausible. Because model-based projections of climate impact on water resources can be quite divergent, it is necessary to develop adaptations that do not need quantitative projections of changes in hydrological variables, but rather ranges of projected values. Our analysis shows how open water reservoirs might be impacted by climate change in dry regions. These findings complement a body of knowledge on estimation of water availability in a changing climate and provide new data and insights on water management in reservoir-dependent drylands.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2023-189', Maarten Krol, 23 Nov 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Gláuber Rodrigues, 01 Feb 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2023-189', Anonymous Referee #2, 31 Dec 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Gláuber Rodrigues, 01 Feb 2024
  • AC3: 'Comment on hess-2023-189', Gláuber Rodrigues, 11 Feb 2024
  • EC1: 'Comment on hess-2023-189', Pieter van der Zaag, 20 Feb 2024
    • AC4: 'Reply on EC1', Gláuber Rodrigues, 24 Feb 2024
      • EC2: 'Reply on AC4', Pieter van der Zaag, 27 Feb 2024

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2023-189', Maarten Krol, 23 Nov 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Gláuber Rodrigues, 01 Feb 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2023-189', Anonymous Referee #2, 31 Dec 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Gláuber Rodrigues, 01 Feb 2024
  • AC3: 'Comment on hess-2023-189', Gláuber Rodrigues, 11 Feb 2024
  • EC1: 'Comment on hess-2023-189', Pieter van der Zaag, 20 Feb 2024
    • AC4: 'Reply on EC1', Gláuber Rodrigues, 24 Feb 2024
      • EC2: 'Reply on AC4', Pieter van der Zaag, 27 Feb 2024
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo

Viewed

Total article views: 728 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
504 181 43 728 44 26 25
  • HTML: 504
  • PDF: 181
  • XML: 43
  • Total: 728
  • Supplement: 44
  • BibTeX: 26
  • EndNote: 25
Views and downloads (calculated since 21 Sep 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 21 Sep 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 705 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 705 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 21 May 2024
Download
Short summary
The research focused in a four-million-inhabitants tropical region supplied by a network of open-water reservoirs whose dry season lasts 8 months (Jun−Dec). We analysed the impact of four climate change scenarios on the evaporation rate and the associated availability (water yield distributed per year). The worst-case scenario shows that by the end of the century (2071−2099) the evaporation rate in the dry season could increase by 6 %, which would reduce the stored water by about 80 %.