Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-120
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-120
11 May 2023
 | 11 May 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Past, present and future rainfall erosivity in Central Europe based on convection-permitting climate simulations

Magdalena Uber, Michael Haller, Christoph Brendel, Gudrun Hillebrand, and Thomas Hoffmann

Abstract. Heavy rainfall is the main driver of soil erosion by water which is a threat to soil and water resources across the globe. As a consequence of climate change, precipitation – and especially extreme precipitation – is increasing in a warmer world, leading to an increase in rainfall erosivity. However, conventional global climate models struggle to represent extreme rain events and cannot provide precipitation data at the high spatio-temporal resolution that is needed for an accurate estimation of future rainfall erosivity. Convection-permitting simulations (CPS) on the other hand, provide high-resolution precipitation data and a better representation of extreme rain events, but they are mostly limited to relatively small spatial extents and short time periods. Here we present for the first time rainfall erosivity and soil erosion scenarios in a large modelling domain such as Central Europe based on high-resolution CPS climate data generated with COSMO-CLM. We calculate rainfall erosivity for the past (1971–2000), present (2001–2019), near future (2031–2060) and far future (2071–2100) and apply the new data set in the soil erosion model WaTEM/SEDEM for the Elbe River basin. Our results showed that future increases in rainfall erosivity in Central Europe can be up to 84 % in the river basins of Central Europe. These increases are much higher than previously estimated based on regression with mean annual precipitation. In consequence, soil erosion and sediment delivery in the Elbe River basin are also increasing strongly. Locally, changes in erosion rates can be as high as 120 %. We conclude that despite remaining limitations, convection-permitting simulations have an enormous and to date unexploited potential for climate impact studies on soil erosion. Thus, the soil erosion modelling community should follow closely the recent and future advances in climate modelling to take advantage of new CPS for climate impact studies.

Magdalena Uber et al.

Status: open (until 08 Jul 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on hess-2023-120', Panos Panagos, 19 May 2023 reply
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Magdalena Uber, 30 May 2023 reply
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2023-120', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Jun 2023 reply

Magdalena Uber et al.

Data sets

Past, present and future rainfall erosivity in Central Europe Magdalena Uber, Michael Haller, Christoph Brendel, Gudrun Hillebrand, and Thomas Hoffmann https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7628957

Magdalena Uber et al.

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Short summary
We calculated past, present and future rainfall erosivity in Central Europe from high-resolution precipitation data (~3 km, 1 h) generated by the convection-permitting climate model COSMO-CLM. Future rainfall erosivity can be up to 84 % higher than it was in the past. Such increases are much higher than estimated previously from regional climate model output. Convection-permitting simulations have an enormous and to date unexploited potential for the calculation of future rainfall erosivity.