Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-428
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-428
01 Feb 2023
 | 01 Feb 2023
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Empirical stream thermal sensitivities cluster on the landscape according to geology and climate

Lillian M. McGill, E. Ashley Steel, and Aimee H. Fullerton

Abstract. Climate change is modifying river temperature regimes across the world. To apply management interventions in an effective and efficient fashion, it is critical to both understand the underlying processes causing stream warming and identify the streams most and least sensitive to environmental change. Empirical stream thermal sensitivity, defined as the change in water temperature with a single degree change in air temperature, is a useful tool to characterize historical stream temperature conditions and to predict how streams might respond to future climate warming. We measured air and stream temperature across the Snoqualmie and Wenatchee basins, Washington during the years 2014–2021. We used ordinary least squares regression to calculate seasonal summary metrics of thermal sensitivity and time-varying coefficient models to derive continuous estimates of thermal sensitivity for each site. We then applied classification approaches to determine unique thermal sensitivity regimes and, further, to establish a link between environmental covariates and thermal sensitivity regime. We found a diversity of thermal sensitivity responses across our basins that differed in both timing and magnitude of sensitivity. We also found that covariates describing underlying geology and snowmelt were the most important in differentiating clusters. Our findings can be used to inform strategies for river basin restoration and conservation in the context of climate change, such as identifying climate insensitive areas of the basin that should be preserved and protected.

Lillian M. McGill et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2022-428', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Mar 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Lillian McGill, 12 May 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2022-428', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Apr 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Lillian McGill, 12 May 2023

Lillian M. McGill et al.

Data sets

Stream air and water data used in the analysis Lillian McGill, E. Ashley Steel, Aimee Fullerton https://lmcgill.shinyapps.io/TimeVarying_AWC/

Lillian M. McGill et al.

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Short summary
This study used the relationship between river water and air temperature to understand processes causing stream warming and predict how streams might respond to future climate warming. We found that the air-water relationship was diverse across sites and controlled largely by geology and snowmelt. Our findings can be used to inform strategies for river basin restoration and conservation, such as identifying climate insensitive areas of the basin that should be preserved and protected.