Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes
- 1Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
- 2Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- 3State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
- 4EIT Institute for Advanced Study, Ningbo, Zhejiang, China
- 1Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
- 2Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- 3State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
- 4EIT Institute for Advanced Study, Ningbo, Zhejiang, China
Abstract. In many flood-prone areas, it is essential for emergency responders to use advanced computer models to assess flood risk and develop informed flood evacuation plans. However, previous studies have limited understanding of how evacuation performances are affected by the arrangement of evacuation shelters regarding their number and geographical distribution and human behaviors regarding the heterogeneity of household evacuation preparation times and route searching strategies. In this study, we develop an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that couples (1) a hydrodynamic model for flood simulation, (2) an agent-based model for evacuation management policies and human behaviors, and (3) a transportation model for simulating household evacuation processes in a road network. We apply the model to the Xiong’an New Area and examine household evacuation outcomes under various shelter location plans and human behavior scenarios. The results show that household evacuation processes are significantly affected by the number and geographical distribution of evacuation shelters. Surprisingly, we find that establishing more shelters may not improve evacuation results if the shelters are not strategically located. We also find that low heterogeneity in evacuation preparation times can result in heavy traffic congestion and long evacuation clearance times. If each household selects their own shortest route without considering the effects of other evacuees’ route choices, traffic congestions will likely to occur, thereby reducing system-level evacuation performance. These results demonstrate the unique functionality of our model to support flood risk assessment and to advance our understanding of how the multiple management and behavioral factors jointly affect evacuation performances.
Erhu Du et al.
Status: final response (author comments only)
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RC1: 'Comment on hess-2022-362', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Nov 2022
This paper develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that couples a hydrodynamic model, an agent-based model, and a transportation model to examine household evacuation outcomes under various shelter location plans and human behavior scenarios. The results demonstrate the unique functionality of the model to support flood risk assessment and to advance the understandings of evacuation performances. The manuscript is well organized and written. The logic flow is easy to follow. Tables and Figures are clear and well presented. I think this is a high-quality manuscript, which will contribute to the flood managment practice. I have only few minor concerns, as follows:
- Lines 184-187: May agents also consider the shelter with least travelling time? please check the assumption.
- Lines 209-212: Will family agents consider at system level? Why will agents want to contribute to system efficiency? Mode 2 should be re-interpreted based on rational an assumption.
- In the results section, I think it is better to discuss the specific policy implications and recommendations following each result, from the perspectives of both emergency responders and family agents. In this way, readers can easily link the new findings to management practice.
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Chunmiao Zheng, 05 Jan 2023
Dear Reviewer,
Thank you for the excellent comments and feedbacks that have led to significant improvements to this work. We paid detailed attention to the comments and have carefully addressed all of them. Please find our responses in the supplement file and feel free to let me know if you have any questions.
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Sincerely yours,
Erhu Du and Chunmiao Zheng
on behalf of all other coauthorsÂ
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RC2: 'Comment on hess-2022-362', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Dec 2022
Summary: the authors evaluate tradeoffs between behavioral heterogeneity in departure time, which route they choose and where evacuation centers are location on traffic congestion and time to evacuate the affected population using a coupled model of flood inundation and traffic routing.
Comments: The paper is very interesting and well organized. Following are few of my comments that the authors may want to consider before resubmitting their manuscript:
 - at places authors may want to check for languange
- there is reference to sociohydrology - perhaps the authors can spend some space on why it is sociohydrology (e.g. because of bidirectional feedbacks between agents decisions and travel times). Also more references, placing this study in the landscape of other sociohydrological studies would be helpful.
- It remains a semi-empirical study. The authors may want to discuss what next steps should be taken to make it more realistic in terms of mapping household behaviour. For example using household surveys on psychological factors that may influence such behavior. Can then behavior of others influences the psychology of those who have not yet started to evacuate (e.g. "others are evacuating with urgency so I better hurry"). This may be a more concious feedback than the traveltime congestion feedback due to heterogeniety in time of departure)
- Table 1 is secondary not primary data. Primary data is self measured, e.g. trhough field campaigns
- How are the travel time results affected when shelter locations are designed to be located close to denser parts of the population than when they are randomly assigned in space? Here, perhaps simulations with more number of shelters and where they are designed to be located are needed to conclude that marginal gains reduce as number of shelters are increased.
- Are system wide shortest routes calculated for each of households that have yet to decide to evacuate at each time step of the simulation? This is not clear and perhaps affects the interpretation of the results regarding the superiority of centrally planned routes. What if households are just given live updates on congestion and then let them decide on their own vs a route that is centrally planned before the flood hits. Centrally planned routes may still be better if they are repeatedly calculated at each time step of simulation where central planners also have information on congestion on various routes and it would be interesting to see how this fares compared to agents deciding on their own route but with live information on congestions. Perhaps the authors may want to provide result on this so the two cases can be fairly evaluated (self organization for evaucation vs centrally planned one - which one is better?)Â Â
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AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Chunmiao Zheng, 05 Jan 2023
Dear Reviewer,
Â
Thank you for the excellent comments and feedbacks that have led to significant improvements to this work. We paid detailed attention to the comments and have carefully addressed all of them. Please find our responses in the SUPPLEMENT file and feel free to let me know if you have any questions.
Â
Sincerely yours,
Erhu Du and Chunmiao Zheng
on behalf of all other coauthors
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AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Chunmiao Zheng, 05 Jan 2023
Erhu Du et al.
Erhu Du et al.
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