01 Nov 2022
01 Nov 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes

Erhu Du1, Feng Wu2, Hao Jiang3, Naliang Guo2, Yong Tian3, and Chunmiao Zheng3,4 Erhu Du et al.
  • 1Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
  • 2Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  • 3State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
  • 4EIT Institute for Advanced Study, Ningbo, Zhejiang, China

Abstract. In many flood-prone areas, it is essential for emergency responders to use advanced computer models to assess flood risk and develop informed flood evacuation plans. However, previous studies have limited understanding of how evacuation performances are affected by the arrangement of evacuation shelters regarding their number and geographical distribution and human behaviors regarding the heterogeneity of household evacuation preparation times and route searching strategies. In this study, we develop an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that couples (1) a hydrodynamic model for flood simulation, (2) an agent-based model for evacuation management policies and human behaviors, and (3) a transportation model for simulating household evacuation processes in a road network. We apply the model to the Xiong’an New Area and examine household evacuation outcomes under various shelter location plans and human behavior scenarios. The results show that household evacuation processes are significantly affected by the number and geographical distribution of evacuation shelters. Surprisingly, we find that establishing more shelters may not improve evacuation results if the shelters are not strategically located. We also find that low heterogeneity in evacuation preparation times can result in heavy traffic congestion and long evacuation clearance times. If each household selects their own shortest route without considering the effects of other evacuees’ route choices, traffic congestions will likely to occur, thereby reducing system-level evacuation performance. These results demonstrate the unique functionality of our model to support flood risk assessment and to advance our understanding of how the multiple management and behavioral factors jointly affect evacuation performances.

Erhu Du et al.

Status: open (until 27 Dec 2022)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2022-362', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Nov 2022 reply

Erhu Du et al.

Erhu Du et al.


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Short summary
This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that can simulate the entire flood management processes, including flood inundation, flood management policies, household responses and evacuation activities. The model is able to holistically examine flood evacuation performances under the joint impacts of hydrological conditions, management policies (i.e., shelter location distribution ) and human behaviors (i.e., evacuation preparation time and route searching strategy).