Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-329
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-329
19 Sep 2022
 | 19 Sep 2022
Status: this preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

A tree-ring perspective on the past and future mass balance of a glacier in Tien Shan (Central Asia): an example from the Tuyuksu glacier, Kyrgyzstan

Youping Chen, Magdalena Opała-Owczarek, Feng Chen, Piotr Owczarek, Heli Zhang, Shijie Wang, Mao Hu, Rysbek Satylkanov, Bakytbek Ermenbaev, Bakhtiyorov Zulfiyor, Huaming Shang, and Ruibo Zhang

Abstract. The Tien Shan glaciers, known as "Central Asia's Water Tower," have a direct influence on water resource management in downstream parched areas. The limited time periods of currently available observational climate datasets hamper an accurate examination of glacial changes in Central Asia in terms of long-term climate change implications. In this work, we analysed this change by combining tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Tuyuksu Glacier's high-altitude mass balance during the last 382 years with models of the future mass balance of this glacier until the year 2100 CE. The results show that mountain precipitation is an important force driving the cycles of the cryosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere in arid Central Asia. This driving force has broad coherence in spatiotemporal variation, with periodic cycles and decadal shifts caused by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The multi-model mean in CMIP6 suggests a downward trend in glacier mass balance until 2100, but this trend will be moderated by increased precipitation. The findings of the study could help to explain how the glacial mass balance has evolved in the Tien Shan Mountains of Central Asia throughout time and its relationship to other geosphere layers.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

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Youping Chen, Magdalena Opała-Owczarek, Feng Chen, Piotr Owczarek, Heli Zhang, Shijie Wang, Mao Hu, Rysbek Satylkanov, Bakytbek Ermenbaev, Bakhtiyorov Zulfiyor, Huaming Shang, and Ruibo Zhang

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2022-329', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Nov 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2022-329', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Nov 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2022-329', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Nov 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2022-329', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Nov 2022
Youping Chen, Magdalena Opała-Owczarek, Feng Chen, Piotr Owczarek, Heli Zhang, Shijie Wang, Mao Hu, Rysbek Satylkanov, Bakytbek Ermenbaev, Bakhtiyorov Zulfiyor, Huaming Shang, and Ruibo Zhang
Youping Chen, Magdalena Opała-Owczarek, Feng Chen, Piotr Owczarek, Heli Zhang, Shijie Wang, Mao Hu, Rysbek Satylkanov, Bakytbek Ermenbaev, Bakhtiyorov Zulfiyor, Huaming Shang, and Ruibo Zhang

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Short summary
Mountain precipitation is an important force driving the cycles of the cryosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere in arid Central Asia. This driving force has broad coherence in spatiotemporal variation, with periodic cycles and decadal shifts caused by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In the future, the increase of precipitation will delay the impact of the sharp rise in temperature on the melting of glacier mass balance.