Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-264
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-264
 
12 Aug 2022
12 Aug 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Producing reliable hydrologic scenarios from raw climate model outputs without resorting to meteorological observations

Simon Ricard1,2, Philippe Lucas-Picher3,4, Antoine Thiboult2, and François Anctil2 Simon Ricard et al.
  • 1Institut de recherche et de développement en agroenvironnement (IRDA), Québec, Canada
  • 2Département de génie civil et de génie des eaux, Université Laval, Québec
  • 3Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Toulouse, France
  • 4Département des sciences de la Terre et de l’atmosphère, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada Canada

Abstract. A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations. This alternative approach is designed by combining asynchronous hydroclimatic modelling and quantile perturbation applied to streamflow observations. Calibration is run by forcing hydrologic models with raw climate model outputs using an objective function that exclude the day-to-day temporal correlation between simulated and observed hydrographs. The resulting hydrologic scenarios provide useful and reliable information considering: (1) they preserve trends and physical consistency between simulated climate variables, (2) are implemented from a modelling cascade despite observation scarcity, and (3) support the participation of end-users in producing and interpreting climate change impacts on water resources. The proposed modelling workflow is implemented over four subcatchments of the Chaudière River, Canada, using 9 North American CORDEX simulations and a pool of lumped conceptual hydrologic models. Results confirm that the proposed workflow produces equivalent projections of the seasonal mean flows in comparison to a conventional hydroclimatic modelling approach. They also highlight the sensibility of the proposed workflow to strong biases affecting raw climate model outputs, frequently causing outlying projections of the hydrologic regime. Inappropriate forcing climate simulations were however successfully identified (and excluded) using the performance of the simulated hydrologic response as a ranking criterion. Results finally suggest further works should be conducted to confirm the reliability of the proposed workflow to assess the impact of climate change on extreme hydrologic events.

Simon Ricard et al.

Status: open (until 11 Oct 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2022-264', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Sep 2022 reply

Simon Ricard et al.

Simon Ricard et al.

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Short summary
A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations. Results confirm the proposed workflow produces equivalent projections of the seasonal mean flows in comparison to a conventional hydroclimatic modelling approach. The proposed approach supports the participation of end-users in interpreting the impact of climate change on water resources.