Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-263
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-263
 
05 Sep 2022
05 Sep 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Investigation of the functional relationship between antecedent rainfall and the probability of debris flow occurrence in Jiangjia Gully, China

Shaojie Zhang1, Hongjuan Yang1, Kaiheng Hu1, Juan Ma2, and Dunlong Liu3 Shaojie Zhang et al.
  • 1Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
  • 2China Institute for Geo-Environment Monitoring, Beijing, 100081
  • 3College of Software Engineering, Chengdu University of Information and Technology, Chengdu, 610225, China

Abstract. A larger antecedent effective precipitation (AEP) indicates a higher probability of a debris flow (Pdf) being triggered by subsequent rainfall. There are a number of scientific topics surrounding this qualitative conclusion that can be raised, including what kinds of variation rules do they follow, and whether there is a boundary limit. To answer these questions, Jiangjia Gully in Dongchuan, Yunnan province, China, was chosen as the study area, and a numerical calculation, rainfall scenario simulation, and Monte Carlo integration method were used to calculate the occurrence probability of debris flow under different AEP conditions and derive the functional relationship between Pdf and AEP. The relationship between Pdf and AEP can be quantified by a piecewise function, and Pdf reaches a maximum value of 18.96 % after the AEP exceeds 110 mm, indicating that debris flow in nature has an extremely small probability compared to the rainfall frequency. Data from 1094 rainfall events and 37 historical debris flow events were collected to verify the reasonability of the functional relationship. The results indicate that the first two stages of the piecewise function are highly correlated with the observation results. Our study confirms the correctness of the qualitative description of the relationship between AEP and Pdf, clarifies that debris flow is a small probability event compared to rainfall frequency, and quantitatively reveals the evolution law of debris flow occurrence probability with AEP, which can provide a clear reference for the early warning of debris flows.

Shaojie Zhang et al.

Status: open (until 04 Nov 2022)

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Shaojie Zhang et al.

Shaojie Zhang et al.

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Short summary
The antecedent effective precipitation (AEP) plays an important role in debris flow formation, but the relationship between AEP and the debris flow occurrence (Pdf) is still not quantified. We ueses numerical calculation and Monte Carlo integration method to solve this issue. We found that the relationship between Pdf and AEP can be described by the piecewise function, and Debris flow is a small probability event comparing to rainfall frequency, because the maximum Pdf in JJG is only 18.96 %.