Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-172
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-172
 
02 May 2022
02 May 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Cooperation in a Transboundary River Basin: a Large Scale Socio-hydrological Model of the Eastern Nile

Mohammad Ghoreishi1,5, Amin Elshorbagy2,5, Saman Razavi1,2,5, Günter Blöschl3, Murugesu Sivapalan4, and Ahmed Abdelkader2 Mohammad Ghoreishi et al.
  • 1School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Canada
  • 2Department of Civil, Geological, and Environmental Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Canada
  • 3Centre for Water Resource Systems, Vienna University of Technology, Austria
  • 4Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
  • 5Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Abstract. While conflict-and-cooperation phenomena in transboundary basins have been widely studied, much less work has been devoted to representing the process interactions in a quantitative way. This paper identifies the main factors in the riparian countries’ willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River Basin, involving Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, from 1983 to 2016. We propose a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate at the national and river basin scales. Our results suggest that relative political stability and foreign direct investment can explain Ethiopia’s decreasing willingness to cooperate between 2009 and 2016. Further, we show that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. While the proposed model has some limitations regarding model assumptions and parameters, it does provide a quantitative representation of the evolution of cooperation pathways among the riparian countries, which can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operation and other management decisions on the emergence of conflict and cooperation in the basin.

Mohammad Ghoreishi et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2022-172', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 May 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2022-172', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 May 2022

Mohammad Ghoreishi et al.

Mohammad Ghoreishi et al.

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Short summary
We propose a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate at the national and Eastern Nile River Basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operation and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.