Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-467
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-467

  15 Sep 2021

15 Sep 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Analysis of high streamflow extremes in climate change studies: How do we calibrate hydrological models?

Bruno Majone1, Diego Avesani1, Patrick Zulian1, Aldo Fiori2, and Alberto Bellin1 Bruno Majone et al.
  • 1Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Trento, I-38123, Italy
  • 2Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, Roma, I- 00154, Italy

Abstract. Climate change impact studies on hydrological extremes often rely on the use of hydrological models with parameters inferred by using observational data of daily streamflow. In this work we show that this is an error prone procedure when the interest is to develop reliable Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function curves of annual streamflow maximum. As an alternative approach we introduce a methodology, coined Hydrological Calibration of eXtremes (HyCoX), in which the calibration of the hydrological model is carried out by directly targeting the probability distribution of high flow extremes. In particular, hydrological simulations conducted during a reference period, as driven by climate models’ outputs, are constrained to maximize the probability that the modeled and observed high flow extremes belong to the same population. The application to the Adige river catchment (southeastern Alps, Italy) by means of HYPERstreamHS, a distributed hydrological model, showed that this procedure preserves statistical coherence and produce reliable quantiles of the annual maximum streamflow to be used in assessment studies.

Bruno Majone et al.

Status: open (until 10 Nov 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Bruno Majone et al.

Bruno Majone et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 486 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
342 140 4 486 1 5
  • HTML: 342
  • PDF: 140
  • XML: 4
  • Total: 486
  • BibTeX: 1
  • EndNote: 5
Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Sep 2021)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Sep 2021)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 357 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 357 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 21 Oct 2021
Download
Short summary
In this work we introduce a methodology for devising reliable high streamflow future scenarios from climate change simulations. The calibration of a hydrological model is carried out maximizing the probability that the modeled and observed high flow extremes belong to the same statistical population. The application to the Adige river catchment (southeastern Alps, Italy) showed that this procedure produces reliable quantiles of the annual maximum streamflow to be used in assessment studies.