Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-451
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-451

  15 Sep 2021

15 Sep 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Producing hydrologic scenarios from raw climate model outputs using an asynchronous modelling framework

Simon Ricard1, Philippe Lucas-Picher2, and François Anctil1 Simon Ricard et al.
  • 1Département de génie civil et de génie des eaux, Université Laval, Québec, Canada
  • 2Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Toulouse, France

Abstract. Statistical post-processing of climate model outputs is a common hydroclimatic modelling practice aiming to produce climate scenarios that better fit in-situ observations and to produce reliable stream flows forcing calibrated hydrologic models. Such practice is however criticized for disrupting the physical consistency between simulated climate variables and affecting the trends in climate change signals imbedded within raw climate simulations. It also requires abundant good-quality meteorological observations, which are not available for many regions in the world. A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations, nor for statistical post-processing of climate model outputs, nor for calibrating hydrologic models. By combining asynchronous hydroclimatic modelling, an alternative framework designed to construct hydrologic scenarios without resorting to meteorological observations, and quantile perturbation applied to streamflow observations, the proposed workflow produces sound and plausible hydrologic scenarios considering: (1) they preserve trends and physical consistency between simulated climate variables, (2) are implemented from a modelling cascades despite observation scarcity, and (3) support the participation of end-users in producing and interpreting climate change impacts on water resources. The proposed modelling workflow is implemented over four subcatchments of the Chaudière River, Canada, using 9 North American CORDEX simulations and a pool of lumped conceptual hydrologic models. Forced with raw climate model outputs, hydrologic models are calibrated over the reference period according to a calibration metric designed to function with temporally uncorrelated observed and simulated streamflow values. Perturbation factors are defined by relating each simulated streamflow quantiles over both reference and future periods. Hydrologic scenarios are finally produced by applying perturbation factors to available streamflow observations.

Simon Ricard et al.

Status: open (until 14 Nov 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2021-451', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Oct 2021 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2021-451', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Oct 2021 reply

Simon Ricard et al.

Simon Ricard et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 347 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
273 66 8 347 1 2
  • HTML: 273
  • PDF: 66
  • XML: 8
  • Total: 347
  • BibTeX: 1
  • EndNote: 2
Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Sep 2021)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Sep 2021)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 265 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 265 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 21 Oct 2021
Download
Short summary
We propose a simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow for producing hydrologic scenarios without resorting to meteorological observations. This innovative approach preserves trends and physical consistency between simulated climate variables, allows the implementation of modelling cascades despite observation scarcity, and supports the participation of end-users in producing and interpreting climate change impacts on water resources.