Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-443
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-443

  10 Sep 2021

10 Sep 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics

Leah Amber Jackson-Blake1, François Clayer1, Elvira de Eyto2, Andrew French2, María Dolores Frías3, Daniel Mercado-Bettín4,5, Tadhg Moore6, Laura Puértolas7, Russell Poole2, Karsten Rinke8, Muhammed Shikhani8, Leon van der Linden9, and Rafael Marcé4,5 Leah Amber Jackson-Blake et al.
  • 1Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), 0349 Oslo, Norway
  • 2Marine Institute, Furnace, F28 PF65, Ireland
  • 3Grupo de Meteorología. Dpto. de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
  • 4Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), 17003 Girona, Spain
  • 5Universitat de Girona, 17004 Girona, Spain
  • 6Dundalk Institute of Technology, A91 K584, Dundalk, Ireland
  • 7Albirem, Barcelona, Spain
  • 8Department of Lake Research, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 39114 Magdeburg, Germany
  • 9SA Water, Adelaide SA 5000, Australia

Abstract. Advance warning of seasonal conditions has potential to assist water management in planning and risk mitigation, with large potential social, economic and ecological benefits. In this study, we explore the value of seasonal forecasting for decision making at five case study sites located in extratropical regions. The forecasting tools used integrate seasonal climate model forecasts with freshwater impact models of catchment hydrology, lake conditions (temperature, level, chemistry and ecology) and fish migration timing, and were co-developed together with stakeholders. To explore the decision making value of forecasts, we carried out a qualitative assessment of: (1) how useful forecasts would have been for a problematic past season, and (2) the relevance of any “windows of opportunity” (seasons and variables where forecasts are thought to perform well) for management. Overall, stakeholders were optimistic about the potential for improved decision making and identified actions that could be taken based on forecasts. However, there was often a mismatch between those variables that could best be predicted and those which would be most useful for management. Reductions in forecast uncertainty and a need to develop practical hands-on experience were identified as key requirements before forecasts would be used in operational decision making. Seasonal climate forecasts provided little added value to freshwater forecasts in the study sites, and we discuss the conditions under which seasonal climate forecasts with only limited skill are most likely to be worth incorporating into freshwater forecasting workflows.

Leah Amber Jackson-Blake et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2021-443', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Oct 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Leah Jackson-Blake, 22 Oct 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2021-443', Francesca Pianosi, 15 Nov 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Leah Jackson-Blake, 30 Nov 2021

Leah Amber Jackson-Blake et al.

Leah Amber Jackson-Blake et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 516 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
397 109 10 516 3 3
  • HTML: 397
  • PDF: 109
  • XML: 10
  • Total: 516
  • BibTeX: 3
  • EndNote: 3
Views and downloads (calculated since 10 Sep 2021)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 10 Sep 2021)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 479 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 479 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 02 Dec 2021
Download
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.