Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-328
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-328

  28 Jun 2021

28 Jun 2021

Review status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal HESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Attributing correlation skill of dynamical global precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set theory based approach

Tongtiegang Zhao1, Haoling Chen1, and Quanxi Shao2 Tongtiegang Zhao et al.
  • 1Center of Water Resources and Environment, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
  • 2CSIRO Data61, Australian Resources Research Centre, Bentley, WA, Australia

Abstract. Climate teleconnections are essential for the verification of valuable precipitation forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs). This paper develops a novel approach to attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM forecasts to statistical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection by using the coefficient of determination (R2). Specifically, observed precipitation is respectively regressed against GCM forecasts, Niño3.4 and both of them and then the intersection operation is implemented to quantify the overlapping R2 for GCM forecasts and Niño3.4. The significance of overlapping R2 and the sign of ENSO teleconnection facilitate three cases of attribution, i.e., significantly positive anomaly correlation attributable to positive ENSO teleconnection, attributable to negative ENSO teleconnection and not attributable to ENSO teleconnection. A case study is devised for the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal forecasts of global precipitation. For grid cells around the world, the ratio of significantly positive anomaly correlation attributable to positive (negative) ENSO teleconnection is respectively 10.8 % (11.7 %) in December-January-February (DJF), 7.1 % (7.3 %) in March-April-May (MAM), 6.3 % (7.4 %) in June-July-August (JJA) and 7.0 % (14.3 %) in September-October-November (SON). The results not only confirm the prominent contributions of ENSO teleconnection to GCM forecasts, but also present spatial plots of regions where significantly positive anomaly correlation is subject to positive ENSO teleconnection, negative ENSO teleconnection and teleconnections other than ENSO. Overall, the proposed attribution approach can serve as an effective tool to investigate the source of predictability for GCM seasonal forecasts of global precipitation.

Tongtiegang Zhao et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2021-328', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Aug 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2021-328', Anonymous Referee #2, 25 Aug 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC2', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021
  • RC3: 'Comment on hess-2021-328', Anonymous Referee #3, 29 Aug 2021
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021
    • AC6: 'Reply on RC3', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on hess-2021-328', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Aug 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on hess-2021-328', Anonymous Referee #2, 25 Aug 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC2', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021
  • RC3: 'Comment on hess-2021-328', Anonymous Referee #3, 29 Aug 2021
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021
    • AC6: 'Reply on RC3', Tongtiegang Zhao, 19 Sep 2021

Tongtiegang Zhao et al.

Tongtiegang Zhao et al.

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Short summary
This paper develops a novel approach to attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM forecasts to statistical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection by using the coefficient of determination. Three cases of attribution are effectively facilitated, which are significantly positive anomaly correlation attributable to positive ENSO teleconnection, attributable to negative ENSO teleconnection and not attributable to ENSO teleconnection.