Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

IF value: 5.153
IF5.153
IF 5-year value: 5.460
IF 5-year
5.460
CiteScore value: 7.8
CiteScore
7.8
SNIP value: 1.623
SNIP1.623
IPP value: 4.91
IPP4.91
SJR value: 2.092
SJR2.092
Scimago H <br class='widget-line-break'>index value: 123
Scimago H
index
123
h5-index value: 65
h5-index65
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-93
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-93
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  26 Mar 2020

26 Mar 2020

Review status
A revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal HESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

Carmelo Cammalleri, Gustavo Naumann, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Bernard Bisselink, Emiliano Gelati, Ad De Roo, and Luc Feyen Carmelo Cammalleri et al.
  • European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy

Abstract. Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. Since many societal impacts from a lack of water happen under drought conditions, it is important to understand how droughts may develop with climate change. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels (GWL of 1.5, 2 and 3 K above preindustrial temperature). We employ a low-flow index derived from river discharge simulations of a spatially-distributed physically-based hydrological and water use model, which was forced with a large ensemble of regional climate model projections under a high emissions (RCP8.5) and moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) pathway. Different traits of drought, including severity, duration and frequency, were investigated. The projected changes in these treats identify four main sub-regions in Europe that are characterized by somehow homogeneous and distinct behaviours with a clear southwest/northeast contrast. The Mediterranean and Boreal sub-regions of Europe show strong, but opposite, changes at all three GWLs, with the former area mostly interested by stronger droughts (with larger differences at 3 K) while the latter sees a reduction in droughts. In the Atlantic and Continental sub-regions the changes are less marked and characterized by a larger uncertainty, especially at the 1.5 and 2 K GWLs. Combining the projections in drought hazard with population and agricultural information shows that with 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 million ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.

Carmelo Cammalleri et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Carmelo Cammalleri et al.

Carmelo Cammalleri et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 607 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
443 148 16 607 18 18
  • HTML: 443
  • PDF: 148
  • XML: 16
  • Total: 607
  • BibTeX: 18
  • EndNote: 18
Views and downloads (calculated since 26 Mar 2020)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 26 Mar 2020)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 444 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 441 with geography defined and 3 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Saved

No saved metrics found.

Discussed

No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 25 Nov 2020
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels, showing that at 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 million ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.
Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface....
Citation