Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

IF value: 5.153
IF5.153
IF 5-year value: 5.460
IF 5-year
5.460
CiteScore value: 7.8
CiteScore
7.8
SNIP value: 1.623
SNIP1.623
IPP value: 4.91
IPP4.91
SJR value: 2.092
SJR2.092
Scimago H <br class='widget-line-break'>index value: 123
Scimago H
index
123
h5-index value: 65
h5-index65
Download
Short summary
This study quantified the causal effects of land cover changes and dams on the changes in annual maximum discharges (Q) using panel regressions. In 2739 catchments of China, we found that 1 % increase of urban areas causes a 2.9 % increase of Q, and a 1 unit increase of reservoir index causes a 23.1 % decrease of Q for catchments with no dam before. This study takes the first step to explain the human-caused flood changes on a national scale in China.
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-609
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-609

  26 Nov 2020

26 Nov 2020

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Causal effects of dams and land cover changes on flood changes in mainland China

Wencong Yang1,2, Hanbo Yang1,2, Dawen Yang1,2, and Aizhong Hou3 Wencong Yang et al.
  • 1Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • 2State Key Laboratory of Hydro-Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
  • 3Hydrological Forecast Center, Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China, Beijing, China

Abstract. Quantifying the effects of human activities on floods is challenging because the knowledge and observations toward the effects are limited. Many previous methods fail to isolate different effects and reduce the uncertainty caused by small samples. We use panel regressions to derive the sensitivity of annual maximum discharges (Q) to the changing values of three human factors: urban areas, cropland areas, and reservoir indexes for large and middle dams. We also test whether the effects increase or decrease with increasing initial values of human factors. This method is applied in 2739 hydrological stations in China. Results show that a 1 % increase of urban areas causes around a 2.9 % increase of Q. Cropland areas have no significant effect on Q. Reservoir index has a decreasing effect: a 1 unit increase of reservoir index causes a decrease in Q from 23.1 % to 5.4 % for catchments with initial reservoir indexes from 0 to 5. From 1992 to 2017, increasing urban areas cause more than 10 % increases in Q in 10.4 % of the 2739 catchments, most of which are located in the North Plain of China. From 1960 to 2017, increasing reservoir indexes cause a more than 10 % decrease of Q in 53.4 % of 777 catchments with at least one dam. Among 1074 catchments with limited impacts from urban areas and reservoir indexes, 210 (19.6 %) catchments have more than 10 % unexplained decreasing rates in Q per decade during 1960–2017, and 62.4 % of the 210 catchments are located in the middle and down streams of the Yellow River Basin and the upper streams of the Haihe River Basin. This study extends the panel regression method in hydrology and sheds light on the attribution of flood changes on a national scale.

Wencong Yang et al.

 
Status: open (until 22 Jan 2021)
Status: open (until 22 Jan 2021)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Wencong Yang et al.

Wencong Yang et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 455 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
360 92 3 455 25 3 4
  • HTML: 360
  • PDF: 92
  • XML: 3
  • Total: 455
  • Supplement: 25
  • BibTeX: 3
  • EndNote: 4
Views and downloads (calculated since 26 Nov 2020)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 26 Nov 2020)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 400 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 395 with geography defined and 5 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 20 Jan 2021
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
This study quantified the causal effects of land cover changes and dams on the changes in annual maximum discharges (Q) using panel regressions. In 2739 catchments of China, we found that 1 % increase of urban areas causes a 2.9 % increase of Q, and a 1 unit increase of reservoir index causes a 23.1 % decrease of Q for catchments with no dam before. This study takes the first step to explain the human-caused flood changes on a national scale in China.
Citation