Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-576
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-576

  14 Nov 2020

14 Nov 2020

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

Louise J. Slater1, Bailey Anderson1, Marcus Buechel1, Simon Dadson1, Shasha Han1, Shaun Harrigan2, Timo Kelder3, Katie Kowal1, Thomas Lees1, Tom Matthews3, Conor Murphy4, and Robert L. Wilby3 Louise J. Slater et al.
  • 1School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
  • 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
  • 3Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
  • 4Maynooth University, Maynooth, County Kildare, Ireland

Abstract. Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind/storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these extremes are evolving and likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under the influence of multiple drivers such as changes in climate, land cover, and other human factors. Methods for analysing hydroclimatic extremes have advanced considerably in recent decades. Here we provide a review of the drivers, metrics and methods for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of nonstationary hydroclimatic extremes. We discuss issues and uncertainty associated with these approaches (e.g arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, or incomplete representation of nonstationary sources in modelling frameworks), examine empirical and simulation-based frameworks for analysis of nonstationary extremes, and identify gaps for future research.

Louise J. Slater et al.

 
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Louise J. Slater et al.

Louise J. Slater et al.

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Short summary
Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is to understand how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, and management of nonstationary weather and water extremes.