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https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-496
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-496
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  07 Oct 2019

07 Oct 2019

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Methodology based on modelling processes and the characterisation of natural flows for risk assessment and water management under the influence of climate change

Sara Suárez-Almiñana, Abel Solera, Jaime Madrigal, Joaquín Andreu, and Javier Paredes-Arquiola Sara Suárez-Almiñana et al.
  • Research Institute of Water Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, 46022, Valencia, Spain

Abstract. Climate change and its possible effects on water resources has become an increasingly near threat. Therefore, the study of these impacts in highly regulated systems and those suffering extreme events is essential to deal with them effectively.

This paper responds to the need of an effective methodology that integrates the climate change projections into water planning and management to guide complex basin decision-making through drought risk and management assessments. In this study is presented an adaptive method based on a model chain and correction processes, where the main outcomes are the impacts on future natural inflows, a drought risk indicator and the simulation of the future water storage of the water resources system (WRS) under consideration. The proposed methodology was applied in the Júcar River Basin (JRB) due to its complexity and the multiannual drought events it goes through. The results shown a decreasing tendency of future inflows to the basin, and the drought risk indicator shows a high probability (≈ 80 %) of being under 50 % of total capacity of the WRS in the near future, but the uncertainty is considerable from the middle century onwards, indicating that an improvement in the skill of climate projections is required.

Thus, this paper also highlights the difficulties of developing this type of methods, since the conclusions on climate change impact assessment depend on partial decisions taken during the methodological processes. However, the main results call for action in the JRB and the tool developed can be considered as a feasible option to facilitate and support decision-making in future water planning and management.

Sara Suárez-Almiñana et al.

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Sara Suárez-Almiñana et al.

Sara Suárez-Almiñana et al.

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Short summary
This work responds to the need of an effective methodology that integrates the climate change projections into water planning and management to guide complex basin decision-making. This general approach is based on a model chain for drought risk and management assessments. In this case, it was adapted to the Júcar River Basin (east of Spain), which showed a worrying decreasing trend in the basin's future water resources, despite the considerable uncertainty of results from mid-century onwards.
This work responds to the need of an effective methodology that integrates the climate change...
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