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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">HESSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">HESSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1812-2116</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/hess-2019-246</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Hierarchical Sensitivity Analysis for Large Scale Process-based
Hydrological Modeling with Application in an Amazonian
Watershed</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>Haifan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dai</surname>
<given-names>Heng</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Niu</surname>
<given-names>Jie</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hu</surname>
<given-names>Bill X.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Qiu</surname>
<given-names>Han</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9962-2472</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gui</surname>
<given-names>Dongwei</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ye</surname>
<given-names>Ming</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Xingyuan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1928-5555</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>Chuanhao</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Jin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Riley</surname>
<given-names>William</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4615-2304</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, 100083, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Groundwater and Earth Sciences, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>41807182</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>02</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2019</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>29</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2019 Haifan Liu et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2019</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2019-246/">This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2019-246/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2019-246/hess-2019-246.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2019-246/hess-2019-246.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&lt;p&gt;Sensitivity analysis is an effective tool for identifying important uncertainty sources and improving model calibration and predictions, especially for integrated systems with heterogeneous parameter inputs and complex processes coevolution. In this work, an advanced hierarchical global sensitivity analysis framework, which integrates a hierarchical uncertainty framework and a variance-based global sensitivity analysis, was implemented to quantitatively analyze several uncertainties of a three-dimensional, process-based hydrologic model (PAWS). The uncertainty sources considered include model parameters, model structures (with/without overland flow module), and climate forcing. We apply the approach in a ~&amp;thinsp;9000&amp;thinsp;km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; Amazon catchment modeled at 1&amp;thinsp;km resolution to provide a demonstration of multiple uncertainty source quantification using a large-scale process-based hydrologic model. The sensitivity indices are assessed based on three important hydrologic outputs: evapotranspiration (&lt;i&gt;ET&lt;/i&gt;), ground evaporation (&lt;i&gt;E&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;G&lt;/sub&gt;), and groundwater contribution to streamflow (&lt;i&gt;Q&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;G&lt;/sub&gt;). It is found that, in general, model parameters (especially those within the streamside model grid cells) are the most important uncertainty contributor for all sensitivity indices. In addition, the overland flow module significantly contributes to model predictive uncertainty. These results can assist model calibration and provide modelers a better understanding of the general sources of uncertainty in predictions of complex hydrological systems in Amazonia. We demonstrated a pilot example for comprehensive global sensitivity analysis of large-scale complex hydrological models in this research. The hierarchical sensitivity analysis methodology used is mathematically rigorous and can be applied to a wide range of large-scale hydrological models with various sources of uncertainty.&lt;/p&gt;</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="29"/></counts>
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