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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-150
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-150
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  11 Apr 2019

11 Apr 2019

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This preprint was under review for the journal HESS but the revision was not accepted.

Antecedent wetness and rainfall information in landslide threshold definition

Binru Zhao1,2, Qiang Dai3,2, Dawei Han2, Huichao Dai1, Jingqiao Mao1, and Lu Zhuo2 Binru Zhao et al.
  • 1College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
  • 2Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
  • 3Key Laboratory of VGE of Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China

Abstract. For rainfall-induced landslides, their occurrence is attributed to both the antecedent wetness condition and the recent rainfall condition. However, when defining rainfall thresholds for the landslide occurrence, these two types of information have been used incompletely or implicitly, which may affect the threshold's predictive capability. This study aims to investigate how to make a better use of these two types of information in the landslide threshold definition. Here four types of thresholds are proposed, by including different variables that are responsible for landslide occurrences, these thresholds could represent different cases, like whether to include the antecedent wetness information or whether to consider the recent rainfall condition explicitly. The predictive capability of these thresholds is then compared crossly with the help of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) approach. We carry out this study in a northern Italian region called Emilia-Romagna. Results show that the antecedent wetness condition plays a crucial role in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landsides. It is beneficial for the threshold's predictive capability to explicitly include the antecedent wetness information and the recent rainfall in the definition of landslide thresholds. When including soil moisture information in landslide threshold, the reliability of the soil moisture measurement is a key factor affecting the threshold's prediction performance.

Binru Zhao et al.

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Binru Zhao et al.

Binru Zhao et al.

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