the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Local and regional flood frequency analysis based on hierarchical Bayesian model: application to annual maximum streamflow for the Huaihe River basin
Abstract. We develop a hierarchical, multilevel Bayesian model for reducing uncertainties in local (at-site) and regional (ungauged or short data sites) flood frequency analysis. This model is applied to the annual maximum streamflow of 17 gauged sites in the Huaihe River basin, China. A Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is considered for each site, and its location and scale parameters depend on the site’s drainage area. We assume the hyper-parameters come from Non-informative (independent, uniform) prior distribution and sample values from posterior distribution by the MCMC method using Gibbs sampling. For comparison, the ordinary GEV fitting by Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) and index flood method fitted by L-moments are also applied. The local simulation results show that for most sites the 95 % credible interval simulated by the Hierarchical Bayesian model are narrower than the at site GEV outputs thus reducing uncertainty. By comparison, the homogeneity assumption of the index flood method often leads to large deviations from the empirical flood frequency curve. Cross validated flood quantiles and associated uncertainty intervals are also derived. These results show that the proposed model can better estimate the flood quantiles and their uncertainty than the index flood method.
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- RC1: 'HESS-2018-22', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Feb 2018
- RC2: 'Comment on Local and regional flood frequency analysis based on hierarchical Bayesian model: application to annual maximum streamflow for the Huaihe River basin - by Wu et al', Anonymous Referee #2, 23 Mar 2018
- RC1: 'HESS-2018-22', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Feb 2018
- RC2: 'Comment on Local and regional flood frequency analysis based on hierarchical Bayesian model: application to annual maximum streamflow for the Huaihe River basin - by Wu et al', Anonymous Referee #2, 23 Mar 2018
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Cited
5 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Regional flood frequency modeling for a large basin in India R. Jaiswal et al. 10.1007/s11069-021-05119-4
- Bayesian regional flood frequency analysis with GEV hierarchical models under spatial dependency structures J. Sampaio & V. Costa 10.1080/02626667.2021.1873997
- Scaling of Floods With Geomorphologic Characteristics and Precipitation Variability Across the Conterminous United States N. Najibi & N. Devineni 10.1029/2022WR032815
- How to explain and predict the shape parameter of the generalized extreme value distribution of streamflow extremes using a big dataset H. Tyralis et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.070
- Marginal Distribution Fitting Method for Modelling Flood Extremes on a River Network B. Skahill et al. 10.3390/geohazards4040030