Combined impact of local climate and soil properties on soil moisture patterns

Abstract. Soil plays a key role in terrestrial water dynamics by retaining precipitation on land. A water balance approach is used to evaluate spatial and temporal variations in soil moisture in Sri Lanka, a country characterized by high spatial variability as reflected in the recognition of three regions of the country, the wet zone, the intermediate zone, and the dry zone. We show that a combination of local climate and soil properties drive spatial patterns of soil moisture deficits on the island, with soils buffering climate variability in the wet zone and enhancing drought patterns in the dry zone. Changes in historical temporal patterns are most notable for the intermediate zone, a region characterized by consistently variable deficits. Counterfactuals of climate change scenarios indicate temperature will drive increases in deficit likelihoods (up to 20 %) in the future, with greatest impact in the intermediate and dry zones, where more than 80 % of the national rice production is concentrated. Given that temperature projections are less uncertain than other climate change impacts, further evaluation of future water stresses are needed. Coupled with remotely-sensed soil moisture data, the findings from this study have implications for infrastructural planning and seasonal crop water allocations in zones with a degree of variability (i.e., neither consistently wet nor consistently dry). Because soil hydrologic regimes reflect inherent, local vulnerabilities, water management decisions need to incorporate regional variabilities in soil moisture dynamics in assessments of climate change adaptations.