Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-273
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-273
 
06 Jun 2017
06 Jun 2017
Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

A bootstrap method to estimate the influence of rainfall spatial uncertainty in hydrological simulations

Ang Zhang1, Haiyun Shi1,2,3,4, Tiejian Li1,2,3, and Xudong Fu1 Ang Zhang et al.
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
  • 2State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai, 810016, China
  • 3School of Water Resources and Electric Power, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai, 810016, China
  • 4Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

Abstract. Rainfall stations with a certain number and spatial distribution supply sampling records of rainfall processes in a river basin. Uncertainty may be introduced when the station records are spatially interpolated for the purpose of hydrological simulations. This study adopts a bootstrap method to quantitatively estimate the uncertainty of areal rainfall estimates and its effects on hydrological simulations. The observed rainfall records are first analysed using clustering and correlation methods, and possible average basin rainfall amounts are calculated with a bootstrap method using various combinations of rainfall station subsets. Then, the uncertainty of simulated runoff, which is propagated through a hydrological model from the spatial uncertainty of rainfall estimates, is analysed with the bootstrapped rainfall inputs. By comparing the uncertainties of rainfall and runoff, the responses of the hydrological simulation to the spatial uncertainty of rainfall are discussed. Analyses are performed for three rainfall events in the upstream of the Qingjian River basin, a sub-basin of the Yellow River. Using the Digital Yellow River Integrated Model, the results show that the uncertainty of rainfall estimates derived from rainfall station network has a direct influence on simulated runoff processes. This quantified relationship between rainfall input and simulation performance can provide useful information on managing rainfall station density in river basins. The proposed method could be a guide to quantify an approximate range of simulated error caused by the spatial uncertainty of rainfall input.

Ang Zhang et al.

 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Ang Zhang et al.

Ang Zhang et al.

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