Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-690
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-690
13 Jan 2017
 | 13 Jan 2017
Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Climate change impacts on hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile

Deniz Bozkurt, Maisa Rojas, Juan Pablo Boisier, and Jonás Valdivieso

Abstract. This study examines the projections of hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile (∼ 30–40 S). We have used daily precipitation and temperature data based on observations to drive and validate the VIC macro-scale hydrological model in the region of interest at a 0.25 × 0.25 degree resolution. Historical (1960–2005) and projected, following the RCP8.5 scenario (2006–2099), daily precipitation and temperatures from 26 CMIP5 climate models are bias corrected and used to drive the VIC model to obtain regional hydroclimate projections. Following the robust drying and warming shown by CMIP5 models in this region, the VIC model simulations indicate decreases in annual runoff of about 40 % by the end of the century, larger that the projected precipitation decreases (up to 30 %). Center timing of runoff shifts to earlier dates, 3–5 weeks by the end of the century. The Andes snowpack is projected to be less than half of the reference period by mid-century. The projected hydroclimatic regime is also expected to increase the severity and frequency of extreme events. The probability of having extended droughts, such as the recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015), increases to up to 5 events/100 years. On the other hand, probability density function of annual maximum daily runoff indicates an increase in the frequency of flood events. The estimated return periods of annual maximum runoff events depict more drastic changes and increase in the flood risk as longer return periods are considered (e.g. 25-yr and 50-yr).

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Deniz Bozkurt, Maisa Rojas, Juan Pablo Boisier, and Jonás Valdivieso
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Deniz Bozkurt, Maisa Rojas, Juan Pablo Boisier, and Jonás Valdivieso
Deniz Bozkurt, Maisa Rojas, Juan Pablo Boisier, and Jonás Valdivieso

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Latest update: 06 Dec 2024
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Short summary
In this study, historical (1960–2005) and projected, following the RCP8.5 scenario (2006–2099), daily precipitation and temperatures from 26 CMIP5 climate models are bias corrected and used to drive the VIC model in order to obtain regional hydroclimate projections. Our study highlights that the robust drying and warming conditions are expected to increase the severity and frequency of extreme events such as recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015) in this densely populated region in Chile.