Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-544
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-544
18 Nov 2016
 | 18 Nov 2016
Status: this preprint has been retracted.

Flood modeling can make a difference: Disaster risk-reduction and resilience-building in urban areas

Jorge A. Ramirez, Umamaheshwaran Rajasekar, Dhruvesh P. Patel, Tom J. Coulthard, and Margreth Keiler

Abstract. Surat, India is a coastal city with a population of approximately 4.5 million people that lies on the banks of the river Tapi and is located 100 km downstream from the Ukai dam. Given Surat's geographic location the city is repeatedly exposed to flooding caused by large emergency dam releases into the Tapi river combined with high tide water levels. Flood events of this type occur twice a decade, but their frequency and magnitude may increase due to the urbanization, encroachment in flood plain and climate change. A first step towards strengthening resilience in Surat requires a robust method for mapping flood exposure at fine spatial resolution. Here, in this study we have developed such a method for Surat using a reduced-complexity hydrodynamic model to simulate flooding, but is easily transferable to other urban locations. Our method features three distinct phases that involve: (1) modelling dam release discharge from the Ukai dam arriving at Surat, (2) modelling flooding within Surat caused by the combination of dam release and tides, and, (3) identifying Surat critical infrastructure, population, and income groups exposed to flooding. Our flood model of Surat utilizes topography produced using elevation data collected from an extensive survey. Within the city we have modelled flood scenarios that represent the uncertainty in flood peak discharge and duration resulting from possible climate change. These scenarios include catastrophic conditions that flood 50 % of the city and expose > 60 % of the population and critical infrastructure to deep flooding. Finally, we highlight how our modelling has contributed to changes in flood risk management within the city following a major flood and resulted in actions that have increased community resilience to flood hazard.

This preprint has been retracted.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Jorge A. Ramirez, Umamaheshwaran Rajasekar, Dhruvesh P. Patel, Tom J. Coulthard, and Margreth Keiler

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Jorge A. Ramirez, Umamaheshwaran Rajasekar, Dhruvesh P. Patel, Tom J. Coulthard, and Margreth Keiler
Jorge A. Ramirez, Umamaheshwaran Rajasekar, Dhruvesh P. Patel, Tom J. Coulthard, and Margreth Keiler

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This preprint has been retracted.

Short summary
Surat, India has a population of 4.5 million and lies on the banks of the river Tapi and is located downstream from a dam that repeatedly floods the city. Floods in Surat may increase in occurrence due to urbanization and climate change. We have developed a model that floods 50 % of the city and exposes > 60 % of the population and critical infrastructure. We highlight how modeling has contributed to changes in flood risk management and resulted in actions that increase city resilience.