Projections of the Affluent Natural Energy (ANE) for the Brazilian electricity sector based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of IPCC-AR5

Abstract. The Affluent Natural Energy (NAE) of Brazilian hydroelectric exploitations that comprise the National Interconnected System (NIS) was obtained from the projections of global IPCC-AR5 models for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The analysis considered the periods from 2010 to 2039, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2098, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, in relation to 1950–1999. Streamflows were generated for 21 basins of the National Interconnected System (NIS) by using the hydrological model Soil Moisture Account Procedure (SMAP). The model was initialized by bias-removed monthly precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and estimated potential evapotranspiration using Penman-Monteith method. Streamflows in the other 182 stations of the NIS were obtained using linear regression with monthly streamflow computed by SMAP as predicted variables. NAE was obtained through product between the naturalized streamflow into each station and the productivity from each hydroelectric exploitation. The models projections indicate that the Brazilian hydropower system may suffer reductions in mean annual streamflow on most basins. This decreasing also suggests a reduction in the mean annual NAE values in the NIS. However, on Southern subsystem most models projected increase of annual NAE. This information defines the bounds for potential future streamflow scenarios and it can be used for the adoption of management policies.