Impact of climate change on groundwater in a confined Mediterranean aquifer

Abstract. This paper presents an inverse modeling method based on wavelet analysis, devoted to assessment of the impacts of climate change on the groundwater resources of a confined coastal multi-layer aquifer, located in the south of France (Pyrénées-Orientales). The hydraulic behavior of the aquifer is described based on the results of a model calibrated to simulate the groundwater dynamics observed on two representative piezometers. The relative contributions of the climate and pumping forcings to the piezometric variations are quantified. The results illustrate in quantitative terms the dominant influence of pumping on the temporal variations of the hydraulic head of the aquifer. Based on this specific behavior simulation, we show the moderate vulnerability of such confined aquifers to climate change. Some insights regarding pumping strategies for confined coastal aquifers that could contribute towards preserving their good status in future are also provided.