Land-use changes reinforce the impacts of climate change on annual runoff dynamics in a southeast China coastal watershed

Abstract. Study on runoff dynamics across different physiographic regions is fundamentally important to formulate the sound strategies for water resource management especially in the coastal watershed where peoples heavily concentrated and relied on water resources. The L−R diagram, a conceptual model by which the land-changes evapotranspiration (ΔL) was estimated as the difference between actual and climate evapotranspiration to identify the specific impact of land-use changes on annual runoff changes (ΔR), was developed using the 53-year hydro-climatic data of Jiulong River Watershed, a typical medium-sized subtropical coastal watershed in China. This study found that land-use changes have reinforced the impact of climatic changes on runoff changes where nearly all points were scattered in II and IV quadrant. Deforestation and expansion of built up area has diminished the water retention capacity in a catchment as well as evapotranspiration thus produce extra runoff accounting for 12–183 % of total runoff increase. In contrast, reforestation makes the significant contribution to decreasing annual runoff for about 21–82 % of total runoff loss. This study revealed the river runoff has become more vulnerable to intensive anthropogenic disturbances under the context of climate changes in a coastal watershed.