Integrating MODIS images in a water budget model for dynamic functioning and drought simulation of a Mediterranean forest in Tunisia

Abstract. The use of remote sensing at different spatio-temporal resolutions is being common during the last decades since sensors offer many inputs to water budget estimation. Various water balance models use the LAI as a parameter for accounting water interception, evapotranspiration, runoff and available ground water. The objective of the present work is to improve vegetation stress monitoring at regional scale for a natural forested ecosystem. LAI-MODIS and spatialized vegetation, soil and climatic data have been integrated in a water budget model that simulates evapotranspiration and soil water content at daily step. We first explore LAI-MODIS in the specific context of Mediterranean natural ecosystem. Results showed that despite coarse resolution of LAI-MODIS product (1 km), it was possible to discriminate evergreen and coniferous vegetation and that LAI values are influenced by underlying soil capacity of water holding. The dynamic of vegetation has been integrated into the water budget model by weekly varying LAI-MODIS. Results of simulations were analysed in terms of actual evapotranspoiration, deficit of soil water to field capacity and vegetation stress index based on actual and potential evapotranspiration. Comparing dynamic LAI variation, afforded by MODIS, to a hypothetic constant LAI all over the year correspond to 30% of fAPAR increase. A sensitivity analysis of simulation outputs to this fAPAR variation reveals that increase of both deficit of soil water to field capacity and stress index are respectively 18% and 27%, (in terms of RMSE, these variations are respectively 1258 mm yr⁻¹ and 11 days yr⁻¹). These results are consistent with previous studies led at local scale showing that LAI increase is accompanied by stress conditions increase in Mediterranean natural ecosystems. In this study, we also showed that spatial modelisation of drought conditions based on water budget simulations is an adequate tool for quantifying expositions of different species to stress and for analysing most influent factors on ecosystem vulnerability to drought.