A regional model to predict the distribution patterns of alpine permafrost in the western part of the Qilianshan Mountains, on the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. A field investigation and measurement of ground temperatures in boreholes was carried out in the upper area of Shule River in the western part of the Qilianshan Mountains, in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in 2008. On the basis of this a sketchy distribution pattern of permafrost in this area was established. A regional permafrost model considering the effects of latitude, altitude, slope and aspect on distribution of permafrost was developed. The effect of latitude was calculated by the Gauss curve as proposed by Cheng, and then added to the effect of altitude. A linear relationship was found between altitude and the measured ground temperatures. For the effects of slope and aspect which mainly affected the amount and spatial distribution of the incoming solar radiation, a linear equation based on increments of the incoming solar radiation and the changes in ground temperature was used to evaluate their influence on the development of permafrost. A distribution map of the frozen ground, as well as a classification map of permafrost based on ground temperatures was produced using the ARCGIS software. In addition, the spatial distribution patterns of frozen ground and each permafrost type in this region were also analyzed.