HESSD Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions HESSD Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 1812-2116 Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/hessd-8-7017-2011 Estimation of baseflow parameters of variable infiltration capacity model with soil and topography properties for predictions in ungauged basins Bao Z. 1 2 Liu J. 1 2 Zhang J. 1 2 Fu G. 3 Wang G. 1 2 Yan X. 1 2 Zhang A. 4 Xu Q. 1 Shang M. 1 2 Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, No. 225, Guangzhou Road, Nanjing, 210029, China Research Center for Climate Change, MWR, No. 225, Guangzhou Road, Nanjing, 210029, China CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China 20 07 2011 8 4 7017 7053 Copyright: © 2011 Z. Bao et al. 2011 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/8/7017/2011/hessd-8-7017-2011.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/8/7017/2011/hessd-8-7017-2011.pdf

Equifinality is unavoidable when transferring model parameters from gauged catchments to ungauged catchments for predictions in ungauged basins (PUB). A framework for estimating the three baseflow parameters of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, directly with soil and topography properties is presented. When the new parameters setting methodology is used, the number of parameters needing to be calibrated is reduced from six to three, that leads to a decrease of equifinality and uncertainty. This is validated by Monte Carlo simulations in 24 hydro-climatic catchments in China. Using the new parameters estimation approach, model parameters become more sensitive and the extent of parameters space will be smaller when a threshold of goodness-of-fit is given. That means the parameters uncertainty is reduced with the new parameters setting methodology. In addition, the uncertainty of model simulation is estimated by the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results indicate that the uncertainty of streamflow simulations, i.e., confidence interval, is lower with the new parameters estimation methodology compared to that used by original calibration methodology. The new baseflow parameters estimation framework could be applied in VIC model and other appropriate models for PUB.

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