Articles | Volume 9, issue 4
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 365–380, 2005
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-9-365-2005

Special issue: Advances in flood forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 365–380, 2005
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-9-365-2005

  07 Oct 2005

07 Oct 2005

Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction

B. T. Gouweleeuw1, J. Thielen1, G. Franchello1, A. P. J. De Roo1, and R. Buizza2 B. T. Gouweleeuw et al.
  • 1NASA/GSFC, Mail Code 614.3, Greenbelt, MD 20770, USA
  • 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK
  • Email for corresponding author: bingo@hsb.gsfc.nasa.gov

Abstract. Following the developments in short- and medium-range weather forecasting over the last decade, operational flood forecasting also appears to show a shift from a so-called single solution or 'best guess' deterministic approach towards a probabilistic approach based on ensemble techniques. While this probabilistic approach is now more or less common practice and well established in the meteorological community, operational flood forecasters have only started to look for ways to interpret and mitigate for end-users the prediction products obtained by combining so-called Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models with rainfall-runoff models. This paper presents initial results obtained by combining deterministic and EPS hindcasts of the global NWP model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with the large-scale hydrological model LISFLOOD for two historic flood events: the river Meuse flood in January 1995 and the river Odra flood in July 1997. In addition, a possible way to interpret the obtained ensemble based stream flow prediction is proposed.