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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">HESS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">HESS</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1607-7938</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/hess-7-812-2003</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Precipitation forecasting by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model: eight years of experience</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kaufmann</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schubiger</surname>
<given-names>F.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Binder</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>MeteoSwiss, P.O. Box 514, CH-8044 Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>E-mail for corresponding author: pirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>31</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2003</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>7</volume>
<issue>6</issue>
<fpage>812</fpage>
<lpage>832</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2003 P. Kaufmann et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2003</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Generic License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/7/812/2003/hess-7-812-2003.html">This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/7/812/2003/hess-7-812-2003.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/7/812/2003/hess-7-812-2003.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/7/812/2003/hess-7-812-2003.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Swiss Model, a hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model, has been used 
        at MeteoSwiss for operational forecasting at the meso-beta scale (mesh-size 14 km) from 
        1994 until 2001. The quality of the quantitative precipitation forecasts is evaluated for 
        the eight years of operation. The seasonal precipitation over Switzerland and its 
        dependence on altitude is examined for both model forecasts and observations using the 
        Swiss rain gauge network sampling daily precipitation at over 400 stations for verification. 
        The mean diurnal cycle of precipitation is verified against the automatic surface 
        observation network on the basis of hourly recordings. In winter, there is no diurnal 
        forcing of precipitation and the modelled precipitation agrees with the observed values. 
        In summer, the convection in the model starts too early, overestimates the amount of 
        precipitation and is too short-lived. Skill scores calculated for six-hourly precipitation 
        sums show a constant level of performance over the model life cycle. Dry and wet seasons 
        influence the model performance more than the model changes during its operational period. 
        The comprehensive verification of the model precipitation is complemented by the discussion 
        of a number of heavy rain events investigated during the RAPHAEL project. The sensitivities 
        to a number of model components are illustrated, namely the driving boundary fields, the 
        internal partitioning of parameterised and grid-scale precipitation, the advection scheme 
        and the vertical resolution. While a small impact of the advection scheme had to be 
        expected, the increasing overprediction of rain with increasing vertical resolution in 
        the RAPHAEL case studies was larger than previously thought. The frequent update of the 
        boundary conditions enhances the positioning of the rain in the model.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p  style=&quot;line-height: 20px;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;Keywords: &lt;/b&gt;numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecast, 
      model verification</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="21"/></counts>
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