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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">HESS</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">HESS</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1607-7938</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023</article-id><title-group><article-title>Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and
topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process
models: a case study in the Upper <?xmltex \hack{\break}?>Colorado River basin</article-title><alt-title>Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{Z. Xu et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
          <name><surname>Xu</surname><given-names>Zexuan</given-names></name>
          <email>zexuanxu@lbl.gov</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9534-7370</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name><surname>Siirila-Woodburn</surname><given-names>Erica R.</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name><surname>Rhoades</surname><given-names>Alan M.</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3723-2422</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no">
          <name><surname>Feldman</surname><given-names>Daniel</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3365-5233</ext-link></contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><institution>Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, California, United States</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Zexuan Xu (zexuanxu@lbl.gov)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>5</day><month>May</month><year>2023</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>27</volume>
      <issue>9</issue>
      <fpage>1771</fpage><lpage>1789</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>3</day><month>June</month><year>2022</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>27</day><month>June</month><year>2022</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>9</day><month>March</month><year>2023</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>23</day><month>March</month><year>2023</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2023 Zexuan Xu et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2023</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023.html">This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>

      <p id="d1e107">Mountain hydrology is controlled by interacting processes extending from the
atmosphere through the bedrock. Integrated process models (IPMs), one of the
main tools needed to interpret observations and refine conceptual models of
the mountainous water cycle, require meteorological forcing that simulates
the atmospheric process to predict hydroclimate then subsequently impacts
surface–subsurface hydrology. Complex terrain and extreme spatial
heterogeneity in mountainous environments drive uncertainty in several key
considerations in IPM configurations and require further quantification and
sensitivity analyses. Here, we present an IPM using the Weather Research and
Forecasting (WRF) model which forces an integrated hydrologic model,
ParFlow-CLM, implemented over a domain centered over the East River
watershed (ERW), located in the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB). The ERW
is a heavily instrumented 300 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> region in the headwaters of the UCRB
near Crested Butte, CO, with a growing atmosphere-through-bedrock
observation network. Through a series of experiments in the water year 2019
(WY19), we use four meteorological forcings derived from commonly used
reanalysis datasets, three subgrid-scale physics scheme configurations in
WRF, and two terrain shading options within WRF to test the relative
importance of these experimental design choices for key hydrometeorological
metrics including precipitation and snowpack, as well as evapotranspiration,
groundwater storage, and discharge simulated by the ParFlow-CLM. Our
hypothesis is that uncertainty from synoptic-scale forcings produces a much
larger spread in surface–subsurface hydrologic fields than
subgrid-scale physics scheme choice. Results reveal that the WRF subgrid-scale
physics configuration leads to larger spatiotemporal variance in simulated
hydrometeorological conditions, whereas variance across meteorological
forcing with common subgrid-scale physics configurations is more
spatiotemporally constrained. Despite reasonably simulating precipitation, a
delay in simulated discharge peak is due to a systematic cold bias across
WRF simulations, suggesting the need for bias correction. Discharge shows
greater variance in response to the WRF simulations across subgrid-scale
physics schemes (26 %) rather than meteorological forcing (6 %).
The topographic radiation option has minor effects on the watershed-average
hydrometeorological processes but adds profound spatial heterogeneity to
local energy budgets (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">30</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> W m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> in shortwave radiation and 1 K air
temperature differences in late summer). This is the first presentation of
sensitivity analyses that provide support to help guide the scientific
community to develop observational constraints on atmosphere-through-bedrock
processes and their interactions.</p>
  </abstract>
    
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory</funding-source>
<award-id>n/a</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>U.S. Department of Energy</funding-source>
<award-id>DE-AC02-05CH11231</award-id>
<award-id>DE-SC0016605</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Biological and Environmental Research</funding-source>
<award-id>n/a</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d1e150">An improved predictive understanding of watershed dynamics and response to
perturbations is particularly important for mountainous watersheds due to
the multitude of natural services they provide even while those services are
highly vulnerable to anthropogenic and natural environmental change (Hubbard
et al., 2018; Siirila-Woodburn et al.,<?pagebreak page1772?> 2021). The Upper Colorado River basin
(UCRB), which supports 40 million people and ecosystems, has experienced
major hydrological change in recent decades (James et al., 2014). Discharge
has decreased by <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">9.3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> % per degree Celsius of warming, due
to processes extending from the atmosphere through the subsurface (Milly and
Dunne, 2020). Drought is common to the region; however, the current
multi-decade drought has been unprecedented in at least the last 1200 years
(Williams et al., 2022). To better estimate how aridification of the UCRB
might continue, processes that shape the water cycle in this region must be
considered holistically, including atmospheric processes such as large-scale
vapor transport, precipitation, and radiation; land surface processes such as
evapotranspiration and snowpack metamorphosis; and
surface-through-subsurface hydrological processes. Atmospheric and land
surface processes all interact and influence river discharge through
riverine processes, infiltration, and subsurface flow and storage, but their
impact varies depending on the temporal and spatial scales of analysis
(Siirila-Woodburn et al., 2021). Unfortunately, there is a dearth of
observational data that can constrain these processes at their respective
scales, which has resulted in persistent model simulation biases in the
prediction of the mountainous hydrologic cycle, with direct implications for
water resource management (Sturm et al., 2017; Rhoades et al., 2018a, b, c; Xu
et al., 2019). Lundquist et al. (2019) highlighted that calibrated models,
which themselves have numerous deficiencies, have likely outpaced the skill
of observationally based gridded products in advancing the understanding of
the integrated mountainous hydrologic cycle. A wide range of physically based
and statistical models have been used over the complex terrain of the
western United States. For example, Alder et al. (2019) and Rahimi et al. (2022) have
evaluated the choice of downscaled climate data and the sensitivities of
grid resolution. Buban et al. (2020) also investigated the use of the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) as a
reference dataset to assess climate model performance. Observational
campaigns, combined with coordinated modeling activities, represent a
potential path forward towards enhancing our predictive understanding of the
hydrologic cycle in complex terrain and, ultimately, advancing model
development that can better aid water resource management (Lundquist et al.,
2019; Feldman et al., 2021).</p>
      <p id="d1e163">Here, we explore how modeling activities can best support that path forward.
Process models provide an essential tool for quantifying linear and
non-linear interacting processes across spatiotemporal scales that arise in
mountains and can help to fill observational gaps. However, the processes
that are represented in these process models are a mixture of fundamental
physics and subgrid-scale parameterizations, many of which were not
developed with a focus on performance in mountainous environments and/or
are based on decades-old field and laboratory data that do not adequately
capture the range of environmental conditions over which those processes
occur. Advances in process modeling in complex terrain must recognize
connections between processes in the atmosphere, at the surface and in the
subsurface. At the same time, making connections between processes across
the atmosphere-through-bedrock continuum is highly non-trivial (Meixner et
al., 2016; Zhuang et al., 2022). Furthermore, snow processes must be
resolved at much finer scales than atmospheric processes, such that snow
process investigations and accurate snow process modeling require
high-resolution downscaling of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (e.g., Winstral and Marks, 2014).
Cross-scale interactions in complex terrain are challenging to resolve at
their native scales with currently available advanced computing resources
(Siirila-Woodburn et al., 2021). While discipline-specific process models,
such as those used to explore and predict atmospheric or subsurface
processes, have advanced scientific understanding in a myriad of ways through
sustained engagement with extensive user communities  (Gutowski et al.,
2020), integrated process models (IPMs), in which these discipline-specific
process models are integrated, are relatively novel and are still being
vetted for various scientific applications in complex terrain.</p>
      <p id="d1e166">Zhang et al. (2016) and Davison et al. (2018) demonstrated the utility of
coupling process models built to explore discipline-specific processes as a
mechanism to advance interdisciplinary research. Furthermore, Camera et al. (2020) discussed the one-way vs. two-way coupling of IPM to understand
process interactions in the mountainous hydrologic cycle. The capabilities
and details of the IPM have been discussed in a series of findings. For
example, Maina et al. (2020) explored how the horizontal resolution of
atmospheric forcing datasets (40 to 0.5 km) in the Cosumnes River
watershed, California, simulated by a widely used regional climate model
(Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF; Powers et al., 2017), results in
differences in surface and subsurface hydrologic metrics when used to force
the integrated hydrologic model (ParFlow-CLM; Ashby and Falgout, 1996; Jones
and Woodward, 2001; Maxwell, 2013; Maxwell et al., 2015), which has been
widely applied in the UCRB (Maina et al., 2020; Foster and Maxwell, 2019;
Pribulick et al., 2016). We expand upon those various sensitivity analyses
in this study, including the influences of large-scale meteorological
forcing and subgrid-scale physics scheme choice on the
surface-through-subsurface response of the integrated hydrologic model. The
goal of this work is to provide the mountain hydrology research community,
with assessed several literature-supported configurations, IPMs that can
inform ongoing and future field campaigns and their process-modeling needs
in the UCRB.</p>
      <p id="d1e169">Standalone WRF simulations have been widely investigated in complex terrain
and provide context for the unfilled gaps in IPM investigation and
development in complex terrain. For example, several papers detailed the
role of subgrid-scale physics configuration in precipitation and snowpack
processes in the UCRB (Rasmussen et al., 2011; Liu et al.,<?pagebreak page1773?> 2011,
2017; Rasmussen et al., 2020). Outside of the UCRB, Orr et al. (2017) found
cloud microphysics schemes have significant impacts on monsoon precipitation
simulation in the complex-terrain Himalayan regions, with the Morrison
microphysics scheme producing the best agreement with observations.
Conversely, Comin et al. (2018) found that the Morrison microphysics scheme
produced excessive snowfall and exhibited poor performance when evaluated in
the Andes, while the Goddard (WDM6) scheme exhibited the best performance
with respect to observed snowfall. In terms of land surface process, Jin et
al. (2010) explored the idea that land surface model complexity improves temperature
simulation but has a minimal impact on simulated precipitation.
Additionally, Mallard et al. (2018) established that the sensitivity of
near-surface temperatures and precipitation to changes in land use
representation is smaller than the model error for those fields, while
Rudisill et al. (2021) found that the details of snow cover in the initial
conditions of a WRF simulation in complex terrain are key to ensuring the
skill of that simulation, not just in 2 m air temperature but also in
the surface energy budget. Meanwhile, Rahimi et al. (2022) found minimal
sensitivity of snow water equivalent (SWE) in WRF simulations across the entire western United
States to microphysics schemes but found large effects due to model
resolution. On the other hand, the effects of meteorological forcing as the
lateral boundary conditions of WRF simulations have also been recognized.
For instance, Xu et al. (2018) identified that the simulations of
hydroclimate in California using WRF are largely driven by large-scale
forcing datasets. Taken together, the published literature suggests a
one-size-fits-all WRF model configuration for hydrological studies in
complex terrain may not be possible. In other words, the WRF configuration
is likely case- and region-specific and could depend either on the
representation of processes within the WRF simulation domain or the boundary
conditions of WRF forced by the large-scale meteorological forcing. The
options of subgrid-scale physics schemes and large-scale meteorological
forcing datasets need to be fully tested to understand their sensitivities
to atmospheric and hydrological processes in the East River
watershed (ERW).</p>
      <p id="d1e173">Furthermore, few studies have assessed how these choices impact the
subsequent simulation of surface-through-subsurface hydrologic processes.
These types of analysis are needed because the WRF model can be configured
in myriad ways for a given domain, and feedbacks to the surface and
subsurface hydrology can yield a potentially large range of results. The
aforementioned IPM study by Maina et al. (2020) showed that biases of
5 %–10 % in basin-average surface water storage can result from forcing
resolution differences in WRF alone, with localized differences in
groundwater head by several meters. Schreiner-McGraw and Ajami (2020) show
that water partitioning across four commonly used meteorological forcing
datasets differs substantially within a Sierra Nevada watershed and that
the combination of precipitation uncertainty, soil parameterization, and
topographic position impacts the severity to which these differences in
forcing exert on the hydrology. However, neither standalone WRF nor
WRF-Hydro explicitly simulates streamflow and three-dimensional groundwater
processes. Groundwater in WRF-Hydro is highly simplified (shallow soil
layers and a bucket model), while ParFlow simulates the full continuum of
variably saturated flow in three dimensions. Therefore, a one-dimensional land
surface model alone cannot be used to better understand the configuration
impacts on the greater hydrologic cycle, given the importance of lateral
groundwater flow contributions to streamflow, especially in complex
mountainous terrain.</p>
      <p id="d1e176">In spite of the range of WRF sensitivity investigations, the connections
between uncertainty in a WRF configuration and its influence on
surface-through-subsurface hydrology is underexplored and therefore the
focus of this work. It should be noted that our investigation is not to
explore general principles behind IPM uncertainty quantification and error
propagation but rather to present a concrete use case to guide the
advancement of atmosphere-through-bedrock modeling and its connections to
mountainous hydrological science. Using an IPM, we address an outstanding
question: does synoptic-scale meteorological forcing or mesoscale–microscale
atmospheric processes have a more direct effect on surface and subsurface
hydrologic processes in a mountainous watershed?</p>
      <p id="d1e179">In order to answer this question, we undertake a series of experiments with
different synoptic-scale meteorological forcing datasets and different,
plausible choices for mesoscale–microscale parameterizations in the IPM. This
is informed by prior standalone WRF studies that have utilized different
shortwave and longwave radiation, microphysics, and surface and planetary
boundary layer schemes (Skamarock et al., 2019). Additionally, topographical
shortwave shading effects are tested to understand how spatial heterogeneity
in the surface radiation budget influences evapotranspiration and snowpack
accumulation and ablation processes (Arthur et al., 2018). Then we explore
how the surface and subsurface hydrology fields respond to these various
experimental setup choices, especially discharge in the ERW of the UCRB
(described below).</p>
      <p id="d1e182">With a discrete set of simulations, we establish the relative importance of
these choices. We also establish the relative importance of subgrid-scale
parameterizations that affect water and energy budgets. Our hypothesis is
that synoptic-scale forcings produce a much larger spread in
surface-through-subsurface hydrology fields than subgrid-scale physics
scheme choice. If our hypothesis is confirmed, then scientific efforts to
advance the predictive hydrology, through modeling, of the UCRB should
prioritize improving large-scale weather products and analyses. Conversely,
if the hypothesis is falsified, the model subgrid-scale physics scheme choice
produces more variability in hydrologic response; therefore scientific efforts
should prioritize the development of smaller-scale atmospheric and
hydrological<?pagebreak page1774?> process representations affected by surface heterogeneity in
the ERW.</p>
      <p id="d1e185">In this study, we also used the distributed hydrological model ParFlow-CLM
to quantify streamflow and groundwater storage, since the hydrological
processes included in WRF are oversimplified. Therefore, this article is
organized as follows: first, we present details of the study site and
hydroclimate in the water year, as well as the IPM, including the coupling
between WRF and ParFlow-CLM and the justifications for using WRF and
ParFlow-CLM as the atmospheric and surface-through-subsurface process models
in the IPM, respectively. Then, we describe the WRF experiments that we
performed to test the relative importance of synoptic-scale boundary forcing
and mesoscale–microscale model subgrid-scale physics schemes for driving ERW-integrated hydrological simulations. Next, we present the simulated
discharge, evapotranspiration, and groundwater storage using ParFlow-CLM, to
quantify the responses to changing WRF configurations. We conclude by
contextualizing these results in light of the ongoing field campaign
activities in the ERW.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Study site</title>
      <p id="d1e196">This investigation focused principally on the modeling and analysis of the ERW,
a mountainous headwater catchment of the UCRB near Crested Butte, Colorado
(Hubbard et al., 2018). This 300 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> watershed of the Upper Colorado
River basin is at a high level, similar to other basins in the UCRB in that it
has very large gradients in precipitation (e.g., range in precipitation between the northern and southern boundary of the ERW by a factor of 2) and
surface-through-subsurface hydrology. The ERW has a continental, subarctic
climate with long, cold winters and short, cool summers. At an average
elevation of 3266 m above sea level, the watershed has a mean annual
temperature of 0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C and distinct winter and growing seasons that
influence hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles. River discharges are driven
primarily by snowmelt in late spring to early summer, with mid- to
late-summer monsoonal rainfall inducing rapid but punctuated increases in
streamflow. The ERW receives <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1200</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> mm yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> of precipitation, and
we focus here on the water year 2019 (1 October 2018–30 September 2019).</p>
      <p id="d1e239">The ERW has become a mountainous community test bed for improving predictive
understanding of multi-scale atmosphere-through-bedrock system dynamics and
is the centerpiece of such focused activities because it is one of two
major tributaries that form the Gunnison River, which in turn accounts for
nearly half of the Colorado River's discharge at the Colorado–Utah border.
In the past decade, several synthesis research efforts have been established
in this region, including a wide range of fieldwork and modeling activities
(Hubbard et al., 2018). The ERW has become one of the most
heavily instrumented mountainous watersheds in the world, which makes it an
ideal location for this research given the potentially large number of
observational constraints available for the IPM efforts presented here. For
example, the SAIL-based observations (Feldman et al., 2021) will be used in
a future study to compare with IPM skill once the SAIL campaign is completed
(2021–2023). Although a wide range of precipitation, temperature, and
hydrological data have been collected, it is still challenging to use these
to characterize atmospheric, surface, and subsurface processes and their
interactions at relevant scales.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Methods</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>WRF models</title>
      <p id="d1e257">The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.0 is used in
this study (Powers et al., 2017). WRF was chosen because of its widespread
use in the investigation of atmospheric and land processes and
contextualization of observations in complex terrain (Rasmussen et al., 2011, 2014). The WRF model is a fully coupled atmospheric and
land surface model with a range of user-specific options for subgrid-scale
physics schemes. WRF is a regional climate model that requires boundary and
initial conditions provided by either global climate model (GCM) outputs or
atmospheric reanalyses datasets. Our configuration of the WRF model is
designed with three nested domains, with an outer, middle, and inner domain
at a grid resolution of 4.5, 1.5, and 0.5 km, respectively, centered
around Crested Butte, Colorado, where the East River watershed is located
(Fig. 1). All WRF simulations are initialized on 15 September 2018, but we
discard the first 15 d of each simulation as spin-up.</p>
      <p id="d1e260">While the stand-alone WRF model has been used extensively to advance the
understanding of atmospheric processes, it has lower fidelity and
applicability to investigate surface-through-subsurface hydrologic
processes and consequently is limited as an assessment and modeling tool
for understanding integrated mountainous hydrologic cycle. Therefore, in
order to provide an estimate of the entire hydrologic budget, we use a
one-way coupling between WRF and an integrated hydrologic model, ParFlow-CLM
(Maxwell et al., 2015, described in further detail below), that simulates
the hydrological response of key variables not otherwise quantifiable in
standalone WRF, such as discharge and groundwater storage.</p>
      <p id="d1e263">Figure 2 summarizes this approach graphically. It shows that the one-way
coupling enables an exploration of sensitivities of modeled hydrologic
quantities (many of which can be observed) to combinations of atmospheric,
surface, and subsurface process representations. We do not choose a single
configuration of WRF or ParFlow-CLM for this one-way coupling but rather
explore the uncertainty in representing atmospheric processes for integrated
mountainous hydrology by analyzing simulations with multiple, plausible
configurations with multiple, plausible meteorological forcings.<?pagebreak page1775?> We
recognize that the output from WRF simulations may be dependent on initial
conditions, which are inherently difficult to constrain (e.g., Walser and
Schär, 2004), but the experimental configuration described here seeks to
be insulated from that dependency by running WRF simulations with initial
conditions derived from different meteorological forcings.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e269"><bold>(a)</bold> Three nested WRF domains D01 (4.5 km grid resolution, 201 by
201 grid cells or 900 by 900 km extent), D02 (1.5 km grid resolution, 201 by
201 grid cells or 300 by 300 km extent), and D03 (0.5 km grid resolution,
201 by 201 grid cells or 100 by 100 km extent) and their associated
elevations (left). The Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010
(GMTED2010) elevation data in meters above mean sea-level is used in the WRF
simulation. <bold>(b)</bold> The innermost ParFlow-CLM domain and spatial extent of the
East River watershed (white line) and associated land cover type derived
from the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) (Homer et al., 2020) and upscaled
to 100 m (right). <bold>(c)</bold> Topography and stream network in the ERW and other
nearby watersheds.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=312.980315pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023-f01.jpg"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e286">A major experimental design decision when simulating the integrated
mountainous hydrologic cycle is the computational cost associated with the
simulations (e.g., simulated years per actual day) that are determined by
model horizontal, vertical, and time step resolutions as well as subgrid-scale physics parameterization complexity. The computational expense
incurred here to explore the sensitivities of WRF configuration choices was
significant: 1 simulated year requires approximately 100 000 CPU hours on Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Lawrencium lr6 supercomputing system. As such, it was highly
impractical to simulate the entire configuration space of meteorological
forcing and subgrid-scale parameterization choice. A discrete subsample of
configurations, as presented here, is used to isolate and systematically
determine which combination of subgrid-scale parameterization choice is
superior for a given domain such as the ERW. We therefore adopted a
parsimonious approach to explore the space of possible WRF configurations,
described below.</p>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1.SSS1">
  <label>3.1.1</label><title>Subgrid-scale physics schemes</title>
      <p id="d1e296">Three well-established suites of subgrid-scale physics schemes for WRF are
evaluated in this study (Table 1). One scheme was developed by NCAR and is
used for a wide range of simulations over domains extending across the
entire conterminous United States (CONUS) (Liu et al., 2017). Another scheme
that we consider here has been used for decadal-length hydroclimate
simulation over California (Huang et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2018; Ullrich et
al., 2018), and since it was initially developed by researchers at the
University of California, Davis, it is denoted as UCD here. More recently, Rudisill et al. (2021) implemented a WRF
configuration that focused on exploring land–atmosphere interactions in
complex terrain. This configuration was developed by researchers at Boise
State University and is referred to as BSU here. We recognized that this
study would be computationally constrained given our prioritization of the
use of sub-kilometer horizontal resolution IPM simulations, and this is why we did
not exhaustively sample the model configuration matrix.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Table 1</label><caption><p id="d1e302">Microphysics, radiation, land surface model, surface layer, and
planetary boundary layer schemes used for the three different WRF
configurations of the IPM tested here.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="4">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="left"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Subgrid-scale physics schemes</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">NCAR (CONUS)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">BSU</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">UCD</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Microphysics</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Thompson</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Thompson</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">WSM6</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Shortwave radiation</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">RRTMG</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">CAM</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">RRTMG</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Longwave radiation</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">RRTMG</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">CAM</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">RRTMG</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Land surface model</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Noah</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Noah-MP</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Noah</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Surface layer</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Eta similarity</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Monin–Obukhov</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Revised MM5</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Planetary boundary layer</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Mellor–Yamada–Janjić scheme</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Mellor–Yamada–Janjić scheme</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">UW (Bretherton and Park)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table><?xmltex \gdef\@currentlabel{1}?></table-wrap>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1.SSS2">
  <label>3.1.2</label><title>Meteorological forcing</title>
      <p id="d1e439">Each of these WRF configurations must specify a set of initial and lateral
boundary conditions at the synoptic scale and, at least in the outer domain,
are typically derived from high-resolution atmospheric reanalyses. The
reanalysis from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP),
the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis version 2 (CFSR2), the Modern-Era
Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications – Version 2 (MERRA2),
and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis version 5
(ERA5) were used in this study.</p>
      <p id="d1e442">ERA5 is the fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the global
climate on a 30 km grid resolution (Hersbach et al., 2020), and combines
model data with observations from across the world into a globally complete
and consistent dataset. The CFSR2 is also global and is designed to provide
an operational product for forecasting and analysis purposes at 0.3<inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>
grid resolution (Saha et al., 2010). The CFSR2 data were generated by an
advanced assimilation scheme, which assimilates satellite radiation using an atmosphere–land–sea ice coupling approach. MERRA2 is another atmospheric reanalysis
based on data assimilation (Gelaro et al., 2017), which is the first
long-term global reanalysis to assimilate space-based observations of
aerosols and represent their interactions with other physical processes in
the climate system. In addition, the NCEP FNL (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, 2000) operational
global analysis and forecast data are on a 0.25<inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> grid resolution from
the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) (Kleist et al., 2009). All
meteorological forcing datasets are processed at a 6-hourly resolution by the WRF
Preprocessing System (WPS).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1.SSS3">
  <label>3.1.3</label><title>Topographic radiation</title>
      <p id="d1e471">Topographic effects for shortwave radiation flux calculations in complex
terrain are evaluated (Arthur et al., 2018). One is the
“slope_rad” namelist option, which modifies surface solar
radiation flux according to terrain slope by correcting it based on the
solar zenith angle relative to the local surface normal vector. This
adjustment ensures that the solar radiation received at the surface in WRF
is consistent with the geometric projection of incoming sunlight onto local,
non-flat surfaces. The other namelist option, “topo_shading”, allows for shadowing of neighboring grid cells. When
topo_shading is active, WRF determines if any topography
intersects a line drawn between a given grid point and the location of the
sun at the time step of the WRF run. If so, a topographic shadow is cast on
that grid point, and the direct component of the incoming solar radiation is
set to 0. In this study, simulations in which slope_rad
and topo_shading are jointly enabled are termed “3DRad”,
and when they are jointly disabled they are termed “no3DRad”, in the inner domain of the
WRF simulation.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e476">Conceptual framework for developing a set of different WRF
configurations of the IPM to evaluate the sensitivities of subgrid-scale
physics parameterization choice, meteorological forcing, and radiation
scheme in the representation of mountain water and energy budgets.</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=369.885827pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023-f02.png"/>

          </fig>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T2"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Table 2</label><caption><p id="d1e488">East River watershed WRF experiment configurations. Three
subgrid-scale physics schemes, four meteorological forcings, and the
topographic radiation options were assessed.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="3">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="left"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Subgrid-scale physics</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Meteorological</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Topographic</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">schemes</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">forcing</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">radiation</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">BSU</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">CFSR2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col3">3DRad_inner</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col3">no3DRad_inner</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">ERA5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col3">3DRad_inner</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col3">no3DRad_inner</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col2">MERRA2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col3">3DRad_inner</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">NCEP</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">3DRad_inner</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">UCD</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col2">CFSR2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col3">3DRad_inner</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">ERA5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">3DRad_inner</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">NCAR</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col2">CFSR2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col3">3DRad_inner</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">ERA5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">3DRad_inner</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table><?xmltex \gdef\@currentlabel{2}?></table-wrap>

</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>ParFlow-CLM description</title>
      <p id="d1e653">ParFlow is a physically based surface–subsurface hydrologic model that
solves the coupled flow of saturated and variability-saturated groundwater
and overland surface water (Ashby and Falgout, 1996; Jones and Woodward,
2001; Maxwell, 2013). The three-dimensional form of Richards' equation is
used to solve for lateral and vertical groundwater flow in the subsurface,
and the kinematic wave approximation is used to solve two-dimensional
overland flow. ParFlow is coupled to the land surface model, the Common Land
Model (CLM), which calculates a coupled water energy balance at every
surface cell of the domain (Dai et al., 2003) and incorporates spatially
distributed vegetative processes by including specified land use types
parameterized by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program standard
database. Hourly meteorological forcing derived from WRF drives ParFlow-CLM
and includes the following eight variables: precipitation, 2 m surface
air temperature, longwave radiation, shortwave radiation, 10 m east–west
and<?pagebreak page1777?> south–north wind speeds, atmospheric pressure, and specific humidity. We
also forced ParFlow-CLM with PRISM precipitation and temperature fields by
evenly distributing daily precipitation and temperature across a diurnal
cycle of 24 h within a day.</p>
      <p id="d1e656">The ParFlow-CLM subsurface domain is 30 m deep at 100 m horizontal
resolution. The WRF outputs are re-gridded using bilinear interpolation to
match the ParFlow-CLM grid cells. The model parameters are based on a
variety of geological and soil parameters and calibrated using streamflow
measurements. More details can be found in Foster and Maxwell (2019) and
Pribulick et al. (2016). The computational expense of ParFlow-CLM is also
less substantial than that of WRF for this model configuration but still
requires high-performance computing. Excluding the time for a multi-year
initial condition spinup, a single water year of the ParFlow-CLM simulations
on 64 cores on the NERSC's Cori supercomputing system is approximately 1000 CPU hours.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3">
  <label>3.3</label><title>Reference datasets</title>
      <p id="d1e667">The Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM)
dataset (Daly et al., 2008) was used here as a point of comparison in
evaluating model uncertainty across subgrid-scale physical schemes and
meteorological forcing datasets for precipitation and temperature. PRISM
uses observations from quality-controlled meteorological stations along with
a topographic correction method against elevation based on empirical
regressions to create daily gridded 800 m total precipitation and daily
average, minimum and maximum 2 m surface temperature. Although PRISM
was generated using statistical models, it has been widely used for climate
and hydrological model assessments (e.g., Lundquist et al., 2019) and
associated uncertainty analyses (e.g., Buban et al., 2020). In the
assessment of subgrid-scale physics schemes and meteorological conditions,
the percent difference in cumulative precipitation is compared against PRISM
by calculating by (max <inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> min) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mo>/</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> min <inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mo>⋅</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 100, where max and min are the maximum and
minimum cumulative precipitation values from the simulations within each
group, respectively.</p>
      <p id="d1e691">Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) data have been widely used in snowpack
assessment (Serreze et al., 1999; Fassnacht et al., 2003), and we use three
SNOTEL stations (Butte, Schofield Pass, Upper Taylor) within the WRF inner
domain<?pagebreak page1778?> to assess the snowpack simulation skill of each IPM configuration.
Significant heterogeneity is sampled by the three SNOTEL stations (within or
near the ERW) due to the complex topography. For example, the Butte station
is located downstream of the ERW and, on average, receives approximately 0.8 m of precipitation and reaches 0.4 m in maximum snow water equivalent over
the year. On the other hand, the Schofield Pass station is located upstream
of the ERW and, on average, receives 1.2 m of precipitation and reaches 0.9 m in maximum snow water equivalent. In addition, we use the snow water
equivalent product of the Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO; Painter et al.,
2016) on  7 April 2019 to evaluate the spatial pattern skill of the snowpack
simulation across WRF configurations (Fig. S8 in the Supplement). The raw ASO product has
50 m spatial resolution and is regridded to the same grid resolution as
WRF outputs (500 m) for comparison purposes using bilinear
interpolation, as documented in Oaida et al. (2019). Since the spatial
resolution of ASO data is significantly finer than the WRF outputs, we
acknowledge that the underestimation by ASO could be due to the
point-to-grid errors (Oaida et al., 2019). Notably, ASO SWE estimates are
lower than SNOTEL SWE measurements (ASO: 389 mm at Butte, 938 mm at
Schofield Pass; SNOTEL: 490 mm at Butte, 1260 mm at Schofield Pass).   In
addition to SNOTEL station data, stream gauge measurement of discharge at
the pump house, the outlet of the ERW, is used to evaluate the ParFlow-CLM
simulation results.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Results</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS1">
  <label>4.1</label><title>Subgrid-scale physical schemes vs. meteorological forcings</title>
      <p id="d1e710">We start by presenting a number of time series of spatial averages over the
ERW for WY19. They indicate the gross performance of the IPM across the
water year and whether a configuration produces generally reasonable
estimates relative to observational products. Figure 3 shows cumulative
precipitation, 2 m surface air temperature, and snow water equivalent
(SWE) aggregated over the ERW, and the  in situ assessments compared against two
SNOTEL stations are in Fig. S3. For cumulative precipitation, each
configuration produces amounts higher than PRISM (cumulative precipitation
of 1201 mm), and the UCD simulates the highest cumulative precipitation. For
surface air temperature, the seasonal cycle and daily variability are
captured by all configurations; however they exhibit systematic cold biases
relative to PRISM (annual average 2 m surface air temperature of 0.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C). In terms of SWE, all model configurations concur in their
representation of the snowpack accumulation season and melt season in late
spring and into summer, except UCD, which simulates an earlier peak timing of
SWE.</p>
      <p id="d1e722">The spread in cumulative precipitation when comparing across different
meteorological forcing datasets is apparent (Fig. 3). Although UCD and NCAR
configurations show a greater difference in precipitation forced by ERA5 and
CFSR2, the consistency across BSU configurations is notable, which also
shows the closest agreement with PRISM. When comparing the relative roles of
subgrid-scale physics scheme choices to meteorological forcings, the percent
difference of cumulative precipitation, calculated by (maximum <inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> minimum) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:mo>/</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> minimum <inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:mo>⋅</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 100, across BSU-CSFR2, UCD-CSFR2, and NCAR-CSFR2 schemes is
nearly 34 % of the minimum cumulative precipitation simulated by
BSU-CFSR2, compared to the 4.6 % of the simulations across BSU
configurations with different meteorological forcing (CSFR2, ERA5, MERRA2,
and NCEP).</p>
      <p id="d1e746">BSU simulations are generally in agreement with PRISM. However, the UCD
simulations are outliers relative to the other simulations, with cumulative
precipitation of 1706 mm, or 42 % higher at the end of the water year,
with the most notable differences occurring in March through September. NCAR
simulations show general agreement with PRISM and BSU throughout the water
year, save for June through September. The 2 m surface air temperature
time series reveals that the UCD simulation is systematically colder
throughout the winter and spring, regardless of which meteorological forcing
dataset is used. The persistent cold bias simulated by the UCD, NCAR, and BSU
schemes has been found in previous WRF studies within western US mountain
regions (Xu et al., 2018; Rudisill et al., 2021). The SWE time series again
shows a similar relationship with precipitation, with the outlier being
UCD-ERA5, in terms of the seasonal timing of when snowpack peaks and melts
(Fig. S1). Comparing the monthly average between UCD-ERA5 (Fig. S4)
and BSU-ERA5 (Fig. S5), the early snowmelt observed in the UCD scheme is
likely a result of warmer temperatures in the low-altitude region that melt the
snow earlier in the water year. However, the high-altitude regions remain
cold enough to maintain snowpack through early summer to midsummer.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e752"><bold>(a)</bold> Cumulative precipitation, <bold>(b)</bold> 2 m surface air temperature,
and <bold>(c)</bold> snow water equivalent (SWE) simulated within the ERW using an IPM
with different subgrid-scale physics schemes and meteorological forcings.
The cumulative precipitation and temperature results are compared relative
to PRISM. The 10 d moving averages of daily temperature are shown in <bold>(b)</bold>. The
percent difference in cumulative precipitation across subgrid-scale physics
schemes (black brackets) and meteorological forcing (green brackets),
calculated by (maximum <inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> minimum) <inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mo>/</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> minimum <inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mo>⋅</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 100, is provided on the right
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=369.885827pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e801">In addition to the domain averages, spatial heterogeneity due to
land surface cover and topographic effects is shown in Fig. 4. The
systematic cold bias simulated throughout the water year appears to be an
elevation-dependent phenomenon, with higher elevations exhibiting an enhanced
cold bias compared with PRISM. However, the river valley and relatively
lower-elevation areas at the southern edge of the ERW, which includes
Crested Butte Mountain, stand out as these regions are warmer than the
PRISM dataset. Figure 4b shows precipitation in BSU-CFSR2 is wetter in the
western regions and drier in the eastern regions of the ERW in comparison to
PRISM. Figure S3 shows comparisons between PRISM and the IPM configurations
and indicates no biases that are persistent across seasons. During summer,
the BSU-CFSR2 simulation consistently produces more precipitation than
PRISM.</p>
      <p id="d1e804">Although the 2 m surface air temperature bias is evident, it does not
vary significantly across either subgrid-scale physics scheme or
meteorological forcing. Therefore,<?pagebreak page1779?> subsequent exploration in this study will
be focused on precipitation. The bottom row in Fig. 4 shows the grid-cell
standard deviation of monthly precipitation across subgrid-scale physics
schemes (i.e., UCD, NCAR and BSU simulations with CFSR2 meteorological
forcing – bottom left) and BSU simulation driven by different
meteorological forcing datasets (ERA5, CFSR2, MERRA2, and NCEP – bottom
right). Similar to the conclusions drawn from Fig. 3, Fig. S6 also shows that the monthly spatial standard deviations across subgrid-scale
physics schemes are generally greater than meteorological forcing,
particularly in regions of higher elevation during the winter season.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e809">Upper row: differences in spatial distributions of annual average
2 m surface air temperature <bold>(a)</bold> and cumulative precipitation <bold>(b)</bold> between the BSU-CFSR2 WRF configuration and PRISM. Lower row: for all
schemes, the standard deviation of annual cumulative precipitation is
plotted for subgrid-scale physics schemes <bold>(c)</bold> and meteorological forcings <bold>(d)</bold>. The values in the parentheses are the domain-average differences over
the water year. The standard deviations are the total annual precipitation
in each ensemble simulations using different subgrid-scale physics schemes
or large-scale meteorological forcings.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023-f04.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e830">Quantitative statistics of the aggregated domain-average precipitation and
temperature simulations for the WRF simulation across subgrid-scale physical
schemes and large-scale meteorological forcings are presented in Table 3.
Although NCAR-CFSR has a higher <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> than other simulations, NCAR-ERA5 has a
very low <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. The BSU simulations provide a closer approximation of
cumulative precipitation to PRISM.  Specifically, BSU does better in
simulating extreme precipitation events (i.e., 95th percentile). Therefore,
we conclude that BSU WRF subgrid-scale physics schemes outperform the UCD
and NCAR WRF subgrid-scale physics schemes in simulating both precipitation
and temperature. On the other hand, the differences in precipitation and
2 m surface air temperatures across the four meteorological forcings
are not statistically significant, and their standard deviations are much
smaller than the differences in simulations across subgrid-scale physical
schemes. While there are many metrics of model skill when selecting a
meteorological forcing to simulate the hydrological processes in the ERW, we
choose BSU-CFSR for the topographic radiation study in the next subsection
due to its better match with PRISM, using our skill measures, in simulating
both precipitation and 2 m surface air temperature.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Table 3</label><caption><p id="d1e859">Quantitative measures of precipitation and temperature of the WRF
simulations among subgrid-scale physical schemes and meteorological forcings. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
is the coefficient of determination for simulations and PRISM daily time
series.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="6">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Total precipitation</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Temperature</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Precipitation_R2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Temperature_R2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">95th percentile of daily</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">(mm)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(K)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">precipitation (mm)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">UCD-ERA5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1706</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>3.14</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.26</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.79</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">20.84</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">UCD-CFSR</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1568</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>2.82</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.82</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">21.09</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">NCAR-ERA5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1435</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>2.80</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.16</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.82</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">19.40</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">NCAR-CFSR</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1308</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>2.50</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.50</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.85</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">18.10</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">BSU-ERA5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1273</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>2.31</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.32</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.86</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">17.70</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">BSU-CFSR</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1267</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>2.23</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.87</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">18.45</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">BSU-MERRA</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1296</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>2.20</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.36</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.87</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">19.51</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">BSU-NCEP</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1249</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>2.41</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.86</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">16.68</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">PRISM</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1202</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.59</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">17.61</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table><?xmltex \gdef\@currentlabel{3}?></table-wrap>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2">
  <label>4.2</label><title>3D topographic radiation effects</title>
      <?pagebreak page1781?><p id="d1e1190">Based on the assessment of simulated precipitation and 2 m surface air
temperature compared with PRISM, the BSU-CFSR2 configuration is selected as
a baseline to further explore the influence of topographic radiation scheme
effects. The difference caused by turning on and off the 3D topographic
radiation effects is similar in other WRF configurations; therefore, only
the BSU-CFSR is presented. Figure 5 shows daily ERW spatial average time
series over the water year for the major mountainous water and energy budget
variables. By isolating the impacts of subgrid-scale physics schemes and
meteorological forcings across IPM simulations, it is easier to
systematically intercompare cause and effect across different topographic
radiation options. Consistent with previous findings, all configurations
still overestimate cumulative precipitation and are too cold relative to
PRISM.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d1e1195">Spatial-average cumulative precipitation, 2 m surface air
temperature, and snow water equivalent (SWE) (first row) and shortwave and
longwave radiation and latent and sensible heat (second row) over the ERW
as simulated by the IPM configurations with and without realistic
topographic radiation effects, along with, where available, estimates from
PRISM. 3DRad indicates a simulation with topo_shading and
slope_rad turned on in the WRF inner domain but not the outer
WRF domains, and no3DRad indicates a simulation with top_shading
and slope_rad turned off in both the inner and outer WRF
domains. The 10 d moving averages are shown in <bold>(b)</bold> temperature and radiation
variables <bold>(d, e, f, g)</bold>.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023-f05.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1210">Figure 6 shows the seasonally resolved shortwave radiation, 2 m
surface air temperature, latent heat flux, and SWE for different
configurations of shortwave radiation in the simulation with and without
topo_shading and slope_rad options in the inner
domain. While no3DRad does not adjust the SWdown (incoming shortwave
radiation), the 3DRad simulation recalculates the SWdown based on the shadows
cast by nearby topography. Spatial differences in IPM-simulated shortwave
radiation (Fig. 6b) are seen in the northeast and western portions of the
ERW, when the topographic effect of shortwave radiation is included. As a
result, a corresponding change in the spatial pattern of simulated 2 m
surface air temperature and latent heat flux is seen, driven by
the change in downwelling shortwave radiation with topographic shading
(Fig. 6a and d). Topographic shading makes a difference locally in latent heat (LH)
flux, by redistributing the energy flux and thus affecting LH flux spatial
distribution. Nevertheless, the domain-average LH flux remains unchanged
between cases. The resulting pattern change in SWE (Fig. 6c) shows that
the northern and northeastern sections of the ERW, where snowpack is
concentrated, are sensitive to shortwave radiation. This is expected and
consistent with previous findings that included topographic effects in
shortwave radiation and found distinct spatial patterns of hydrologic
variable sensitivity due to both shadows and surface reflection that produce
time-varying effects on net surface radiation (Lee et al., 2015; Palazzi et
al., 2019; Gu et al., 2020; Hao et al., 2021).</p>
      <p id="d1e1214">Although Fig. 5 shows that realistic shortwave radiation produces small
effects on the seasonal cycle of the surface energy and mass budgets when
averaged over the entire watershed, including annual average SWE (Fig. 5c), Fig. 6c shows that mountains and valleys have different amounts of
SWE. Furthermore, seasonal patterns show simulated latent heat is diminished
at lower elevations from March to May, when snowmelt occurs in the valley,
and the remaining snowpack in the mountains and late snowmelt in the 3DRad
simulation cause the lower latent heat flux shown in July (Fig. S7). The 3D
radiation shading scheme does not significantly affect the total water
balance but rather the spatial distribution of radiation fluxes. Thus,
despite having minimal impacts on water impacting on the water balance, the
scheme does have important localized impacts on SWE and surface energy
budget spatial patterns. The 3DRad simulation has less SWE in the valleys
during the accumulation season but more SWE at higher elevations during the
melt season, which is a direct result of the differences in shortwave
radiation redistribution. Figure S5 also shows that the latent heat
differences in north-facing and south-facing sides are most apparent in the
snowmelt and warm seasons. This is consistent with previous findings (Lee et
al., 2015; Palazzi et al., 2019; Gu et al., 2020; Hao et al., 2021), that a
more realistic treatment of shortwave radiation, which includes shadows and
projected insolation on sloped surfaces, results in lower shortwave
insolation on the surface at this time of year. The lower shortwave
radiation should, in turn, decrease the energy available for the IPM to
produce snowmelt. In summary, the simulations show that, while local spatial
differences in surface radiation with and without realistic topography are
apparent in Fig. 6, the domain spatial averages (even for SWE) are the
same between shaded and non-shaded formulations. This suggests that while
localized differences may be highlighted when shading is included, the impact
of topographic shading on the entire water balance over a spatial domain
like the ERW is negligible.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{6}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d1e1219">Topographic radiation differences (3dRad minus no3dRad) annual
average 2 m surface air temperature, shortwave (SW) and latent heat
flux, and snow water equivalent (SWE) over the ERW. The values in the
parentheses are the ERW average differences over the water year, which are
small and consistent with Fig. 5.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=312.980315pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023-f06.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS3">
  <label>4.3</label><title>Hydrological and streamflow responses</title>
      <p id="d1e1236">We have evaluated the aforementioned WRF configurations' subgrid-scale
physical scheme and large-scale meteorological forcings in representing
precipitation, temperature, snowpack, and radiation fluxes and their impacts
on the integrated water budget within the ParFlow-CLM. We also evaluated the
simulated discharge from ParFlow-CLM forced by PRISM as a comparison with
WRF forcings. Figure 7 shows the simulated hydrologic output from the
ParFlow-CLM model for watershed outlet discharge (top row) and
watershed-average groundwater storage (bottom row). Discharge at the
watershed outlet (see exact location in Fig. 1) shows a different timing
across the various WRF subgrid-scale physics scheme configurations and
large-scale meteorological forcings that lead to a temporal shift in
simulated streamflow, where the daily averaged time series (left) shows only
minor differences through time. However, cumulative discharge by the year-end
reveals substantial differences (right), especially after peak snowmelt
where estimates of cumulative discharge begin to diverge. Differences across
the WRF configurations are especially large; the difference across the three
subgrid-scale physics scheme configurations with ERA5 (UCD, NCAR, and BSU)
varies by 26 % by the year-end. Differences across meteorological forcing
(using the BSU physics configuration as a control, shown in green) are also
noteworthy, although smaller, approximately 6 %. These results are
consistent with the variation of simulated precipitation in WRF described
earlier, confirming that for this basin, meteorological forcing drives less
variance on the hydrologic response than the subgrid-scale physics scheme
configuration.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{7}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 7</label><caption><p id="d1e1241">Time series of ParFlow-CLM simulations of discharge rate <bold>(a)</bold>,
cumulative discharge <bold>(b)</bold>, groundwater storage per unit area of the watershed <bold>(c)</bold>, and cumulative average unsaturated groundwater storage per area of the
watershed <bold>(d)</bold> for the IPM configurations described in Table 2. The brackets
on the far right indicate the percent difference of cumulative discharge and
unsaturated groundwater storage per area (<bold>b</bold> and <bold>d</bold>, respectively) for WRF
simulations across different meteorological forcings (green) and
subgrid-scale physics schemes (black).</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=369.885827pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023-f07.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1269">In addition to the variance of cumulative discharge with WRF simulations
across different conditions, a comparison to observed discharge is also
shown in Fig. 7, which for all scenarios suggests a delayed snowmelt
response in the IPM.<?pagebreak page1782?> While the objective of this study is not to replicate
the observations, but rather determine sensitivity across IPM configuration
choice, the mismatch in streamflow response suggests a systematic cold bias
from the WRF input into ParFlow-CLM, which is consistent with the discussion
surrounding Fig. 3 in relationship to PRISM. An early-fall peak in
simulated discharge is also seen in all WRF simulations, and not in observed
discharge, although a significant increase in SNOTEL precipitation was
measured in October of that year (see Figs. S1, S2). This further
supports a temperature bias, albeit opposite that of the cold bias discussed
previously, where precipitation around that October storm event falling as
rain (as opposed to snow) leads to a sharp increase in discharge. A
sensitivity analysis of the BSU-ERA5 model run for a lower precipitation
year (water year 2018, which was nearly half the precipitation of 2019)
showed better agreement with observed discharge, which suggests the bias in
timing may be a function of accumulated precipitation and/or snowmelt, and
this is reserved for future studies (not shown).</p>
      <p id="d1e1273">Basin-average groundwater storage, shown in Fig. 7c in area-normalized
units, shows a strong annual signal for all WRF configurations with minimal
differences across IPM configurations. Here all groundwater, inclusive of
saturated or unsaturated storage, is considered. The cumulative,
area-normalized annual groundwater storage, when accounting for only vadose
zone storage (Fig. 7d), which is most responsive to sub-annual differences
in precipitation inputs, is meaningful in this context because it relates a
cumulative impact on near-surface groundwater storage due to IPM
configuration. Similar to the year-end cumulative discharge, year-end departures
in vadose zone groundwater storage across the different simulations are
evident. Differences across the IPM configurations of subgrid-scale physics
schemes are larger than the difference across the forcing simulations (4 %
versus 2 %, respectively). While the differences in groundwater signals
are not as pronounced as the discharge signals, streamflow signals are very
reactive and noisy and change quickly, whereas groundwater signals are the
product of slower processes via infiltration and vadose zone dynamics, often
at longer timescales, which result in very different temporal signals as
compared to streamflow.</p>
      <p id="d1e1276">Figure 8 shows maps of standard deviations in annual total
evapotranspiration (ET) simulated by ParFlow-CLM across IPM configurations
(top row) and the cell-binned relationship of those standard
deviations of annual ET with land use and cover type, as well as elevation
(bottom). Consistent with variations shown in the simulated discharge and
groundwater storage, ParFlow-CLM simulates greater variations of ET under
WRF configurations driven by different subgrid-scale physics schemes (Fig. 8a), compared to the simulations conducted with different meteorological
forcings (Fig. 8b). These results suggest that locations populated by
high-water-demanding vegetation (namely evergreen and deciduous forests) at
mid-elevations result in the highest ET variability across IPM
configurations. Conversely, low-water-demanding vegetation (barren/sparsely
vegetated land<?pagebreak page1783?> and grasses), which resides across a range of elevations in
the study domain, results in the lowest variability in annual ET across IPM
configurations. These differences in water demand essentially magnify any
differences in atmospheric conditions.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F8" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{8}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 8</label><caption><p id="d1e1281">Pixel-level standard deviation in annual total evapotranspiration
(ET) over the ParFlow-CLM domain from WRF with different subgrid-scale
physics schemes <bold>(a, c)</bold> or meteorological forcing <bold>(b, d)</bold>. The ERW outline is
overlaid in white in the upper row <bold>(a–b)</bold>. The standard deviation of simulated
ET from ParFlow-CLM across different physics schemes <bold>(c)</bold> and meteorological
forcing <bold>(d)</bold> is presented in the lower row <bold>(c–d)</bold>. For each pixel in <bold>(a)</bold>–<bold>(b)</bold>, the
relationship between annual ET standard deviation, elevation (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis), and
land cover type (colors) is shown by scatter plots on the bottom row <bold>(c–d)</bold>.
See Fig. 1 for maps of land cover types. Subgrid-scale physics schemes <bold>(a, c)</bold> have more variance compared to meteorological forcings <bold>(b, d)</bold>,
especially for mid-elevations and in evergreen forests.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/1771/2023/hess-27-1771-2023-f08.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>5</label><title>Discussion and conclusions</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS1">
  <label>5.1</label><title>Scientific findings</title>
      <p id="d1e1349">In spite of previous efforts to characterize the sensitivity of WRF
simulations to model configuration choices, the mountain climate and
hydrology scientific community has not sufficiently explored the
implications of those choices for surface and subsurface hydrology in
high-altitude complex terrain. Here, we used an IPM with one-way feedbacks
from WRF to ParFlow-CLM to assess the hydrometeorology of the ERW, which is
characterized by strong hydrological gradients indicative of mountain
environments of the UCRB.</p>
      <p id="d1e1352">In this paper, we present a number of numerical experiment results that are
informative for the scientific community to better understand
atmosphere-through-bedrock process interactions and the uncertainties of
those interactions between climate and hydrological model experimental setup
choices. First, the uncertainties associated with meteorological forcing
choice are less important than subgrid-scale physics scheme choice, at least
in the ERW. This finding has important implications for IPM in complex
terrain, since it reveals that the differences in reanalysis products are
less consequential for initializing and forcing IPMs than atmospheric
configurations and that efforts to advance IPMs such as collecting
observations and using them to evaluate physical process parameterizations
at the sub-HUC-8 (hydrologic unit code) scale could help to better constrain model performance.
This result also shows that the large-scale meteorological forcing of the
IPM simulation is less important in driving the magnitude and spatial
variability of key hydrometeorological variables than the details in
choosing and optimizing atmospheric subgrid-scale physics schemes<?pagebreak page1784?> (e.g.,
microphysics or boundary layer turbulence). Ultimately, we used the
BSU-CFSR2 configuration to recreate WY2019 in the ERW, which allows
researchers, in this case, to prioritize process studies and the development
of associated observational constraints within the ERW. However, further
investigation is needed to evaluate the systemic cold bias across IPM
configurations, particularly at higher elevations, and the consequence of
delayed snowmelt and timing of discharge peaks.</p>
      <p id="d1e1355">We recognize that numerous works in meteorological disciplines have
demonstrated that “physical parameterization is much more important than
lateral or initial conditions” (e.g., Solman and Pessacg, 2012; Pohl et
al., 2011). However, our findings are not redundant with the published
literature, as those references either evaluated large-scale meteorological
processes or did not focus on high-altitude complex terrain regions, which
are central to our study. Additionally, most IPM studies to date do not show
how the range of reasonable IPM configurations (based on configurations that
have been presented in the published literature) affects water-management-relevant processes such as discharge, ET, and subsurface hydrology. With our
set of one-way atmosphere-through-bedrock process modeling results, we now
show how choices in atmospheric process model configurations impact the
surface and subsurface hydrology. Specifically, we evaluate and quantify the
sensitivity of discharge, ET, and subsurface hydrology to IPM
configurations, and we also address how 3D topographic radiation schemes
affect both the spatial distribution and spatial average aspects of the
mountainous hydrologic budget.</p>
      <p id="d1e1358">In the investigation of topographical and slope gradient effects on
shortwave radiation, our study shows those considerations in WRF are
essential in redistributing radiation flux over regions of complex terrain,
even though the differences in spatial-average performance over ERW are
minimal. This is because the spatial redistribution of shortwave radiation
leads to approximately <inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">30</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> W m<inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>  difference in the east-/west-facing
slopes that lead to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> K difference in 2 m surface air
temperature in August and September (when snowpack is nonexistent).
Throughout most of the water year when snowpack exists, the spatial
heterogeneity of temperature differences is less apparent than for shortwave
radiation. Latent heat buffers the differences of the shortwave radiation
contribution to the radiation budget and causes early<?pagebreak page1785?> snowmelt in the high-elevation mountains in those simulations with topographical and slope
gradient shortwave radiation effects turned on. At the same time, the
systemic cold bias and limitations of one-way feedback in this study are
potentially indicative of challenges in extrapolating findings from one
mountainous watershed to another. If atmospheric process details are
significant for surface and subsurface hydrological modeling, and if the
findings regarding atmospheric processes in one study area are marginally or
completely irrelevant to other mountainous watersheds, then additional fieldwork would be needed in mountainous hydrology research to address this
issue, given that the extrapolation of fieldwork results remains a central
challenge for field-based research and modeling activities.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5.SS2">
  <label>5.2</label><title>Limitations and future works</title>
      <p id="d1e1401">A limitation of our study, given the computational constraints of running
IPMs, is that it was infeasible to explore the full parameter spaces of WRF
and ParFlow-CLM exhaustively; thus, our conclusions are limited to the
selected subgrid-scale physics schemes and meteorological forcing datasets
analyzed. Additional work is needed to improve the systemic cold bias in
2 m surface air temperature throughout all experiments as this may
have been the major driver in the delayed snowmelt and peak discharge
simulated by the IPM.</p>
      <p id="d1e1404">Another methodological constraint is that our WRF and ParFlow-CLM
experiments were only one-way instead of two-way feedbacks, which ignores
potentially important feedbacks from the subsurface hydrology to the
atmosphere via ET and the radiation budget. For example, Givati et al. (2016) reported that simulated precipitation was<?pagebreak page1786?> improved with two-way
coupling in WRF-Hydro compared to WRF-only, and Forrester et al. (2018)
showed that boundary layer dynamics were impacted in IPM simulations in
regions where shallow water tables exist. On the other hand, ParFlow-CLM is
essential in our experiment for quantifying hydrological responses,
including streamflow and groundwater storage. Although another fully coupled
integrated hydrology model (i.e., WRF-Hydro) provides some insights into
streamflow, it still uses a simplified and prescribed stream network.
Groundwater storage in WRF-Hydro is also highly simplified, using a bucket
model, while ParFlow-CLM simulates the full 3D continuum of variable
saturation in three dimensions. Importantly, in a similar fashion to the
hierarchy of climate models approach oft used in the climate community
(Jeevanjee et al., 2017), we would also like to assess one-way coupling
performance of our IPM prior to assessing two-way coupling IPM performance.</p>
      <p id="d1e1407">The East River watershed is already highly instrumented due to the presence
of the long-standing Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the SNOTEL
network, the United States Geological Survey's Next Generation Water
Observing System (NGWOS), the National Science Foundation's Sublimation of
Snow (SOS) project, and the DOE Watershed Science Focus Area project, which has
been adding instrumentation to the watershed over the last <inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">7</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> years. While these observations focus primarily on surface and subsurface
processes, the East River watershed has become even more instrumented in
recent years (2021–2023) through the support of the US DOE (SAIL campaign)
and US NOAA (SPLASH campaign) deployments of a comprehensive set of
atmospheric instrumentation (e.g., radar and radiation measurements).
Future work will include integration of data, either indirectly through IPM
benchmarking or directly through data assimilation into the IPM, from the
SAIL campaign. SAIL is collecting a wide array of observations with the
intent to advance understanding of precipitation, snow, aerosol,
aerosol–cloud interaction, and radiation processes in complex terrain and
establish the minimum but sufficient level of process understanding to
develop a robust predictive understanding of seasonal surface water and
energy budgets in the ERW (Feldman et al., 2021). SAIL aims to develop a
wide range of hydrometeorological datasets to constrain atmosphere, surface,
and subsurface processes simultaneously. Together, these resources are
contributing to the establishment of a highly instrumented and in-depth-studied UCRB
watershed. We look forward to building upon the knowledge learned from this
paper to compare the most appropriately configured IPM to SAIL and
SPLASH campaign observations. Our study highlights that the benchmarking
provided by these data collections will be critical in addressing the
systemic IPM cold bias by providing a more constrained estimate of radiation
budgets in complex terrain that ultimately shape snowmelt and discharge.</p>
</sec>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="dataavailability"><title>Data availability</title>

      <p id="d1e1425">All WRF model output files can be found at <uri>https://portal.nersc.gov/archive/home/z/zexuanxu/Shared/www/IPM</uri> (Xu et al., 2023).</p>

      <p id="d1e1431">Please notify corresponding author Zexuan Xu (zexuanxu@lbl.gov)
if you have used our data.</p>
  </notes><app-group>
        <supplementary-material position="anchor"><p id="d1e1434">The supplement related to this article is available online at: <inline-supplementary-material xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023-supplement" xlink:title="pdf">https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023-supplement</inline-supplementary-material>.</p></supplementary-material>
        </app-group><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d1e1443">ZX, ERSW, AMR, and DF designed the study together. ZX performed the WRF
simulations and analyzed the results. ERW performed the ParFlow-CLM
simulations. All authors contributed to the writing and approved this
paper.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e1449">The contact author has declared that none of the authors has any competing interests.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="disclaimer"><title>Disclaimer</title>

      <p id="d1e1455">Publisher’s note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e1461">This work was supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development
Program of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. This work was also
supported by the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area project, the Atmospheric System Research (ASR), and the
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility Program, funded by the U.S. Department
of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental
Research, under U.S. Department of Energy contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231.
This research used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific
Computing Center, a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported by the
Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under that same contract.
This research also used the Lawrencium computational cluster resource
provided by the IT Division at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
(supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy
Sciences, of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract no.
DE-AC02-05CH11231). The authors acknowledge the helpful guidance provided by
Lejo Flores at Boise State University and   Will Rudisill at
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory regarding the WRF configurations
conducted in this study over the ERW.</p></ack><notes notes-type="financialsupport"><title>Financial support</title>

      <p id="d1e1466">Authors Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirilla-Woodburn, and  Daniel Feldman  were supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program funded by Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory, the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area funded by
the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and
Environmental Research, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User
Facility Program of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office
of Biological and Environmental Research, under U.S. Department of Energy
contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231. Co-author Alan M. Rhoades <?pagebreak page1787?> was funded by the
Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research
of the U.S. Department of Energy Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA)
program through the Calibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution
and Detection of Extremes (CASCADE) Science Focus Area (award no. DE-AC02-05CH11231), and the “An Integrated Evaluation of the Simulated
Hydroclimate System of the Continental US” project (award no. DE-SC0016605).</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e1472">This paper was edited by Xing Yuan and reviewed by three anonymous referees.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
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