<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">HESS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">HESS</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1607-7938</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/hess-17-5167-2013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>An assessment of the ability of Bartlett&amp;ndash;Lewis type of rainfall models to reproduce drought statistics</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pham</surname>
<given-names>M. T.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vanhaute</surname>
<given-names>W. J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vandenberghe</surname>
<given-names>S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>De Baets</surname>
<given-names>B.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Verhoest</surname>
<given-names>N. E. C.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4116-8881</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Management, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Mathematical Modelling, Statistics and Bioinformatics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>19</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>17</volume>
<issue>12</issue>
<fpage>5167</fpage>
<lpage>5183</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2013 M. T. Pham et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2013</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/17/5167/2013/hess-17-5167-2013.html">This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/17/5167/2013/hess-17-5167-2013.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/17/5167/2013/hess-17-5167-2013.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/17/5167/2013/hess-17-5167-2013.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Of all natural disasters, the economic and environmental
  consequences of droughts are among the highest because of their
  longevity and widespread spatial extent. Because of their extreme
  behaviour, studying droughts generally requires long time series of
  historical climate data. Rainfall is a very important variable for
  calculating drought statistics, for quantifying historical droughts
  or for assessing the impact on other hydrological (e.g. water stage
  in rivers) or agricultural (e.g. irrigation requirements)
  variables. Unfortunately, time series of historical observations are
  often too short for such assessments. To circumvent this, one may
  rely on the synthetic rainfall time series from stochastic point
  process rainfall models, such as Bartlett–Lewis models. The present
  study investigates whether drought statistics are preserved when
  simulating rainfall with Bartlett–Lewis models. Therefore,
  a 105 yr 10 min rainfall time series obtained at Uccle,
  Belgium is used as a test case. First, drought events were identified
  on the basis of the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and each event
  was characterized by two variables, i.e. drought duration (&lt;i&gt;D&lt;/i&gt;) and
  drought severity (&lt;i&gt;S&lt;/i&gt;). As both parameters are interdependent,
  a multivariate distribution function, which makes use of a copula,
  was fitted. Based on the copula, four types of drought return
  periods are calculated for observed as well as simulated droughts
  and are used to evaluate the ability of the rainfall models to
  simulate drought events with the appropriate
  characteristics. Overall, all Bartlett–Lewis model types studied
  fail to preserve extreme drought statistics, which is attributed
  to the model structure and to the model stationarity caused by
  maintaining the same parameter set during the whole simulation period.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="17"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
<ref-list>
<title>References</title>
<ref id="ref1">
<label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Anderson, T. W. and Darling, D. A.: A test of goodness of fit, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 49, 765–769, 1954.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref2">
<label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Bhalme, H. N. and Mooley, D. A.: Large-scale droughts/floods and monsoon circulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 1197–1211, 1980.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref3">
<label>3</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Burton, A., Kilsby, C. G., Fowler, H. J., Cowpertwait, P. S. P., and O&apos;Connell, P. E.: RainSim: a spatial–temporal stochastic rainfall modelling system, Environ. Model. Softw., 23, 1356–1369, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref4">
<label>4</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Byun, H.-R. and Wilhite, D. A.: Objective quantification of drought severity and duration, J. Climate, 12, 2747–2756, 1999.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref5">
<label>5</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Byun, H.-R., Sun-Ju, L., Saeid, M., Ki-Seon, C., Sang-Min, L., and Do-Woo, K.: Study on the periodicities of droughts in Korea, Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 417–441, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref6">
<label>6</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Cameron, D., Beven, K., and Tawn, J.: An evaluation of three stochastic rainfall models, J. Hydrol., 228, 130–149, 2000.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref7">
<label>7</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Cameron, D., Beven, K., and Tawn, J.: Modelling extreme rainfalls using a modified random pulse Bartlett–Lewis stochastic rainfall model (with uncertainty), Adv. Water Resour., 24, 203–211, 2001.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref8">
<label>8</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Cowpertwait, P., Isham, V., and Onof, C.: Point process models of rainfall: developments for fine-scale structure, P. Roy. Soc. A, 463, 2569–2587, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref9">
<label>9</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">De Jongh, I. L. M., Verhoest, N. E. C., and De Troch, F. P.: Analysis of a 105-year time series of precipitation observed at Uccle, Belgium, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 2023–2039, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref10">
<label>10</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Démarée, G. R.: Le pluviographe centenaire du plateau d&apos;Uccle: son histoire, ses données et ses applications (The centennial recording raingauge of the Uccle Plateau: its history, its data and its applications), La Houille Blanche, 4, 95–102, 2003.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref11">
<label>11</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Dogan, S., Berktay, A., and Singh, V. P.: Comparison of multi-monthly rainfall-based drought severity indices, with application to semi-arid Konya closed basin, Turkey, J. Hydrol., 470–471, 255–268, 2012.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref12">
<label>12</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Duan, Q., Sorooshian, S., and Gupta, V. K.: Optimal use of the SCE-UA global optimization method for calibrating watershed models, J. Hydrol., 158, 265–284, 1994.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref13">
<label>13</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Genest, C. and Favre, A.: Everything you always wanted to know about copula modeling but were afraid to ask, J. Hydrol. Eng., 12, 347–368, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref14">
<label>14</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Genest, C. and Rivest, L.-P.: On the multivariate probability integral transformation, Stat. Probabil. Lett., 53, 391–399, 2001.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref15">
<label>15</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Genest, C., Quessy, J.-F., and Rémillard, B.: Goodness-of-fit procedures for copula models based on the probability integral transformation, Scand. J. Stat., 33, 337–366, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref16">
<label>16</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Gommes, R. A. and Petrassi, F.: Rainfall variability and drought in sub-Saharan Africa since 1960, Technical Report, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Research and Technology Development Division, Agrometeorology Group, Rome, Italy, 1994.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref17">
<label>17</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">González, J. and Valdés, J. B.: New drought frequency index: definition and comparative performance analysis, Water Resour. Res., 42, W11421, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004308&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004308&lt;/a&gt;, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref18">
<label>18</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Gräler, B., van den Berg, M. J., Vandenberghe, S., Petroselli, A., Grimaldi, S., De Baets, B., and Verhoest, N. E. C.: Multivariate return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1281–1296, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1281-2013&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1281-2013&lt;/a&gt;, 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref19">
<label>19</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Jesus, J. and Chandler, R. E.: Estimating functions and the generalized method of moments, Interface Focus, 1, 871–885, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref20">
<label>20</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Kaczmarska, J.: Further development of Bartlett–Lewis models for fine-resolution rainfall, Technical Report, Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, 011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref21">
<label>21</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Kendall, D. and Dracup, J.: On the generation of drought events using an alternating renewal-reward model, Stoch. Hydrol. Hydraul., 6, 55–68, 1992.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref22">
<label>22</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Kim, D.-W., Byun, H.-R., and Choi, K.-S.: Evaluation, modification, and application of the Effective Drought Index to 200-year drought climatology of Seoul, Korea, J. Hydrol., 378, 1–12, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref23">
<label>23</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Kim, T.-W., Valdés, J. B., and Aparicio, J.: Spatial characterization of droughts in the Conchos river basin based on bivariate frequency analysis, Water Int., 31, 50–58, 2006a.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref24">
<label>24</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Kim, T.-W., Valdés, J. B., and Yoo, C.: Nonparametric approach for bivariate drought characterization using palmer drought index, J. Hydrol. Eng., 11, 134–143, 2006b.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref25">
<label>25</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Li, N., Liu, X., Xie, W., Wu, J., and Zhang, P.: The return period analysis of natural disasters with statistical modeling of bivariate joint probability distribution, Comput. Stud., 33, 134–145, 2012.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref26">
<label>26</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Mathier, L., Perreault, L., Bobée, B., and Ashkar, F.: The use of geometric and gamma-related distributions for frequency analysis of water deficit, Stoch. Hydrol. Hydraul., 6, 239–254, 1992.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref27">
<label>27</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, California, USA, 179–184, 1993.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref28">
<label>28</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Morid, S., Smakhtin, V., and Moghaddasi, M.: Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 971–985, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref29">
<label>29</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Morid, S., Smakhtin, V., and Bagherzadeh, K.: Drought forecasting using artificial neural networks and time series of drought indices, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 2103–2111, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref30">
<label>30</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Nelsen, R. B.: An Introduction to Copulas, Springer, New York, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref31">
<label>31</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Onof, C. and Wheater, H. S.: Improvements to the modelling of British rainfall using a modified random parameter Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse model, J. Hydrol., 157, 177–195, 1994.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref32">
<label>32</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Onof, C., Meca-Figueras, T., Kaczmarska, J., Chandler, R., and Hege, L.: Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett–Lewis process: third-order moments, proportion dry, and a truncated random parameter version, Technical Report, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref33">
<label>33</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Pandey, R. P., Dash, B. B., Mishra, S. K., and Singh, R.: Study of indices for drought characterization in KBK districts in Orissa (India), Hydrol. Process., 22, 1895–1907, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref34">
<label>34</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Cox, D. R., and Isham, V.: Some models for rainfall based on stochastic point processes, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 410, 269–288, 1987a.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref35">
<label>35</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., De Power, B. F., and Valdes, J. B.: Rectangular pulses point process models for rainfall: analysis of empirical data, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 9645–9656, 1987b.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref36">
<label>36</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Cox, D. R., and Isham, V.: A point process model for rainfall: further developments, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 417, 283–298, 1988.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref37">
<label>37</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Rooy, M. P. V.: A rainfall anomaly index (RAI) independent of time and space, Notos, 14, 43–48, 1965.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref38">
<label>38</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Salvadori, G.: Bivariate return periods via 2-copulas, Stat. Methodol., 1, 129–144, 2004.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref39">
<label>39</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Salvadori, G. and De Michele, C.: Frequency analysis via copulas: theoretical aspects and applications to hydrological events, Water Resour. Res., 40, W12511, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003133&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003133&lt;/a&gt;, 2004.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref40">
<label>40</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Salvadori, G. and De Michele, C.: Statistical characterization of temporal structure of storms, Adv. Water Resour., 29, 827–842, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref41">
<label>41</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Salvadori, G. and De Michele, C.: On the use of copulas in hydrology: theory and practice, J. Hydrol. Eng., 12, 369–380, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref42">
<label>42</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Salvadori, G. and De Michele, C.: Multivariate multiparameter extreme value models and return periods: a copula approach, Water Resour. Res., 46, W10501, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009WR009040&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR009040&lt;/a&gt;, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref43">
<label>43</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Salvadori, G., Michele, C. D., Kottegoda, N., and Rosso, R.: Extremes in Nature: an Approach Using Copulas, Springer, New York, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref44">
<label>44</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Shiau, J. T.: Return period of bivariate distributed extreme hydrological events, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 17, 42–57, 2003.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref45">
<label>45</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Shiau, J. T.: Fitting drought duration and severity with two-dimensional copulas, Int. Ser. Prog. Wat. Res., 20, 795–815, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref46">
<label>46</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Shiau, J. T. and Modarres, R.: Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran, Meteorol. Appl., 16, 481–489, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref47">
<label>47</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Shiau, J. T. and Shen, H. W.: Recurrence analysis of hydrologic droughts of differing severity, J. Water Res. Pl.-ASCE, 127, 30–40, 2001.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref48">
<label>48</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Sklar, A.: Fonctions de répartition à n dimensions et leurs marges, Publ. Inst. Statist. Univ. Paris, 8, 229–231, 1959.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref49">
<label>49</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Vandenberghe, S.: Copula-based Models for Generating Design Rainfall, PhD dissertation, Ghent University, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent, Belgium, 2012.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref50">
<label>50</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Vandenberghe, S., Verhoest, N. E. C., Onof, C., and De Baets, B.: A comparative copula-based bivariate frequency analysis of observed and simulated storm events: a case study on Bartlett–Lewis modeled rainfall, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07529, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008388&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008388&lt;/a&gt;, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref51">
<label>51</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Vanhaute, W. J., Vandenberghe, S., Scheerlinck, K., De Baets, B., and Verhoest, N. E. C.: Calibration of the modified Bartlett–Lewis model using global optimization techniques and alternative objective functions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 873–891, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-873-2012&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-873-2012&lt;/a&gt;, 2012.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref52">
<label>52</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Verhoest, N., Troch, P. A., and De Troch, F. P.: On the applicability of Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulses models in the modeling of design storms at a point, J. Hydrol., 202, 108–120, 1997.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref53">
<label>53</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Verhoest, N. E. C., Vandenberghe, S., Cabus, P., Onof, C., Meca-Figueras, T., and Jameleddine, S.: Are stochastic point rainfall models able to preserve extreme flood statistics?, Hydrol. Process., 24, 3439–3445, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref54">
<label>54</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Wheater, H. S., Chandler, R. E., Onof, C. J., Isham, V. S., Bellone, E., Yang, C., Lekkas, D., Lourmas, G., and Segond, M. L.: Spatial-temporal rainfall modelling for flood risk estimation, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 19, 403–416, 2005.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref55">
<label>55</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Wilby, R. L. and Wigley, T. M. L.: Precipitation predictors for downscaling: observed and general circulation model relationships, Int. J. Climatol., 20, 641–661, 2000.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref56">
<label>56</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Wilhite, D., Svoboda, M., and Hayes, M.: Understanding the complex impacts of drought: a key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness, Int. Ser. Prog. Wat. Res., 21, 763–774, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref57">
<label>57</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Wong, G., Lambert, M. F., Leonard, M., and Metcalfe, A. V.: Drought analysis using trivariate copulas conditional on climatic states, J. Hydrol. Eng., 15, 129–141, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref58">
<label>58</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Yu-Won, K. I. M. and Hi-Ryong, B.: On the cause of summer droughts in Korea and their return to normal, Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 237–251, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref59">
<label>59</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Zelenhasi, E. and Salvai, A.: A method of streamflow drought analysis, Water Resour. Res., 23, 156–168, 1987.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>