<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">HESS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">HESS</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1607-7938</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/hess-17-1681-2013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Streamflow input to Lake Athabasca, Canada</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rasouli</surname>
<given-names>K.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hernández-Henr&iacute;quez</surname>
<given-names>M. A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Déry</surname>
<given-names>S. J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3553-8949</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W., Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC, V2N 4Z9, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>02</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>17</volume>
<issue>5</issue>
<fpage>1681</fpage>
<lpage>1691</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2013 K. Rasouli et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2013</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1681/2013/hess-17-1681-2013.html">This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1681/2013/hess-17-1681-2013.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1681/2013/hess-17-1681-2013.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1681/2013/hess-17-1681-2013.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Lake Athabasca drainage area in northern Canada encompasses
ecologically rich and sensitive ecosystems, vast forests, glacier-clad
mountains, and abundant oil reserves in the form of oil sands. The basin
includes the Peace–Athabasca Delta, recognized internationally by UNESCO and
the Ramsar Convention as a biologically rich inland delta and wetland that
are now under increasing pressure from multiple stressors. In this study,
streamflow variability and trends for rivers feeding Lake Athabasca are
investigated over the last half century. Hydrological regimes and trends are
established using a robust regime shift detection method and the Mann–Kendall
(MK) test, respectively. Results show that the Athabasca River, which is the
main contributor to the total lake inflow, experienced marked declines in
recent decades impacting lake levels and its ecosystem. From 1960 to 2010
there was a significant reduction in lake inflow and a significant
recession in the Lake Athabasca level. Our trend analysis corroborates a
previous study using proxy data obtained from nearby sediment cores
suggesting that the lake level may drop 2 to 3 m by 2100. The lake
recession may threaten the flora and fauna of the Athabasca Lake basin and
negatively impact the ecological cycle of an inland freshwater delta and
wetland of global importance.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="11"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
<ref-list>
<title>References</title>
<ref id="ref1">
<label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Abdul Aziz, O. I. and Burn, D. H.: Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin, J. Hydrol., 319, 282–294, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref2">
<label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Bennett, R. M., Card, J. R., and Hornby, D. M.: Hydrology of Lake Athabasca: Past, Present and future, Hydrol. Sci. Bul., 18, 337–345, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667309494045&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667309494045&lt;/a&gt;, 1973.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref3">
<label>3</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Burn, D. H.: Climatic influences on streamflow timing in the headwaters of the Mackenzie River Basin, J. Hydrol., 352, 225–238, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref4">
<label>4</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Burn, D. H., Abdul Aziz, O. I., and Pietroniro, A.: A comparison of trends in hydrological variables for two watersheds in the Mackenzie River Basin, Can. Wat. Resour. J., 29, 283–298, 2004.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref5">
<label>5</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Déry, S. J. and Wood, E. F.: Decreasing river discharge in northern Canada, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L10401, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022845&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022845&lt;/a&gt;, 2005.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref6">
<label>6</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Déry, S. J., Stieglitz, M., McKenna, E. C., and Wood, E. F.: Characteristics and trends of river discharge into Hudson, James, and Ungava Bays, 1964–2000, J. Climate, 18, 2540–2557, 2005.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref7">
<label>7</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Déry, S. J., Hernández-Henr\&apos;{i}quez, M. A., Owens, P. N., Parkes, M. W., and Petticrew, E. L.: A century of hydrological variability and trends in the Fraser River Basin, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024019, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024019&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024019&lt;/a&gt;, 2012.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref8">
<label>8</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Gao, H., Bohn, T. J., Podest, E., McDonald, K. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: On the causes of the shrinking of Lake Chad, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 034021, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034021&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034021&lt;/a&gt;, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref9">
<label>9</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Garousi, V., Najafi, A., Samadi, A., Rasouli, K., and Khanaliloo, B.: Environmental crisis in Lake Urmia, Iran: a systematic review of causes, negative consequences and possible solutions, Proc. of the 6th Int. Perspec. On Water Resour. and the Env., Izmir, Turkey, January 2013, EWRI, 10, 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref10">
<label>10</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Hamed, K. H. and Rao, A. R.: A modified Mann–Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data, J. Hydrol., 204, 182–196, 1998.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref11">
<label>11</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Jordaan, S. M., Keith, D. W., and Stelfox, B.: Quantifying land use of oil sands production: A life cycle perspective, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 024004, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024004&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024004&lt;/a&gt;, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref12">
<label>12</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Kendall, M. G.: Rank Correlation Methods, Charles Griffin, London, 160&amp;nbsp;pp., 1975.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref13">
<label>13</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, 1945.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref14">
<label>14</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Marshall, S. J., White, E. C., Demuth, M. N., Bolch, T., Wheate, R., Menounos, B., Beedle, M., and Shea, J. M.: Glacier water resources on the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains, Can. Water Resour. J., 36, 109–134, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref15">
<label>15</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">McClelland, J. W., Déry, S. J., Peterson, B. J., Holmes, R. M., and Wood, E. F.: A Pan-Arctic evaluation of changes in river discharge during the latter half of the 20th century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06715, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025753&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025753&lt;/a&gt;, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref16">
<label>16</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Micklin, P.: The Aral Sea disaster, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sc., 35, 47–72, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref17">
<label>17</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Muzik, I.: Hydrology of Lake Athabasca, Hydrology of Natural and Manmade Lakes, Proc. of the Vienna Symposium, August&amp;nbsp;1991, IAHS-AISH P., 226, 13–22, 1991.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref18">
<label>18</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Orcutt, G. H. and Winokur Jr., H. S.: Autoregression: Inference, estimation, and prediction, Econometrica, 37, 1–14, 1969.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref19">
<label>19</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Pavelsky, T. M. and Smith, L. C.: Remote sensing of hydrologic recharge in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, Canada, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08403, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033268&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033268&lt;/a&gt;, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref20">
<label>20</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Peace–Athabasca Delta Technical Studies (PADTS): Final Report. PADTS Steering Committee, Fort Chipewyan, Alberta, 106&amp;nbsp;pp., 1996.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref21">
<label>21</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Peters, D. L. and Buttle, J. M.: The effects of flow regulation and climatic variability on obstructed drainage and reverse flow contribution in a northern river-lake-delta complex, Mackenzie basin headwaters, River Res. Appl., 26, 1065–1089, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref22">
<label>22</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Peters, D. L., Prowse, T. D., Pietroniro, A., and Leconte, R.: Flood hydrology of the Peace-Athabasca Delta, northern Canada, Hydrol. Process., 20, 4073–4096, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref23">
<label>23</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Rodionov, S. N.: A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts, Geophy. Res. Lett., 31, L09204, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019448&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019448&lt;/a&gt;, 2004.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref24">
<label>24</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Rood, S. B., Pan, J., Gill, K. M., Franks, C. G., Samuelson, G. M., and Shepherd, A.: Declining summer flow of Rocky Mountain rivers: Changing seasonal hydrology and probable impacts on floodplain forests, J. Hydrol., 349, 397–410, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref25">
<label>25</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Schindler, D. W. and Donahue, W. F.: An impending water crisis in Canada&apos;s western prairie provinces, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 103, 7210–7216, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref26">
<label>26</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Sen P. K.: Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall&apos;s tau, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379–1389, 1968.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref27">
<label>27</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Shepherd, A., Gill, K. M., and Rood, S. B.: Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down-scaled global circulation modeling, Hydrol. Process., 24, 3864–3877, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref28">
<label>28</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Smith, L. C. and Pavelsky, T. M.: Remote sensing of volumetric storage changes in lakes, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 34, 1353–1358, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref29">
<label>29</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Stahl, K. and Moore, R. D.: Influence of watershed glacier coverage on summer streamflow in British Columbia, Canada, Water Resour. Res., 42, W06201, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005022&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005022&lt;/a&gt;, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref30">
<label>30</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Swart, N. C. and Weaver, A. J.: The Alberta oil sands and climate, Nature Climate Change, 2, 134–136, 2012.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref31">
<label>31</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Theil, H.: A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, I. Nederlands Akad. Wetensch. Proc., 53, 386–392, 1950a.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref32">
<label>32</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Theil, H.: A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, II. Nederlands Akad. Wetensch. Proc., 53, 521–525, 1950b.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref33">
<label>33</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Theil, H.: A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, III. Nederlands Akad. Wetensch. Proc., 53, 1397–1412, 1950c.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref34">
<label>34</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Von Storch, V. H.: Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. In Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques, edited by: von Storch, H. and Navarra, A., Springer-Verlag: Berlin, 11–26, 1995.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref35">
<label>35</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Wolfe, B. B., Hall, R. I., Edwards, T. W. D., Jarvis, S. R., Niloshini Sinnatamby, R., Yi, Y., and Johnston, J. W.: Climate-driven shifts in quantity and seasonality of river discharge over the past 1000 years from the hydrogeographic apex of North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L24402, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036125&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036125&lt;/a&gt;, 2008a.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref36">
<label>36</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Wolfe, B. B., Hall, R. I., Edwards, T. W. D., Vardy, S. R., Falcone, M. D., Sjunneskog, C., Sylvestre, F., McGowan, S., Leavitt, P. R., and van Driel, P.: Hydroecological responses of the Athabasca Delta, Canada, to changes in river flow and climate during the 20th century, Ecohydrology, 1, 131–148, 2008b.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref37">
<label>37</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Wolfe, B. B., Edwards, T. W. D., Hall, R. I., and Johnston, J. W.: A 5200-year record of freshwater availability for regions in western North America fed by high-elevation runoff, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11404, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047599&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047599&lt;/a&gt;, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref38">
<label>38</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Wolfe, B. B., Hall, R. I., Edwards, T. W. D., and Johnston, J. W.: Developing temporal hydroecological perspectives to inform stewardship of a northern floodplain landscape subject to multiple stressors: paleolimnological investigations of the Peace–Athabasca Delta, Environ. Rev., 20, 191–210, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/A2012-008&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1139/A2012-008&lt;/a&gt;, 2012.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref39">
<label>39</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Woo, M. and Thorne, R.: Streamflow in the Mackenzie Basin, Canada, Arctic, 56, 328–340, 2003.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref40">
<label>40</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Woo, M., Thorne, R., Szeto, K., and Yang, D.: Streamflow hydrology in the boreal region under the influences of climate and human interference, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B., 363, 2251–2260, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref41">
<label>41</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Yue, S., Pilon, P. J., Phinney, B., and Cavadias, G.: The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series, Hydrol. Process., 16, 1807–1829, 2002.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>