<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">HESS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">HESS</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1607-7938</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>GÃ¶ttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/hess-15-3033-2011</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones â€“ Hong Kong and the Netherlands</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lenderink</surname>
<given-names>G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mok</surname>
<given-names>H. Y.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lee</surname>
<given-names>T. C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van Oldenborgh</surname>
<given-names>G. J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The  Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2011</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>15</volume>
<issue>9</issue>
<fpage>3033</fpage>
<lpage>3041</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2011 G. Lenderink et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2011</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/15/3033/2011/hess-15-3033-2011.html">This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/15/3033/2011/hess-15-3033-2011.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/15/3033/2011/hess-15-3033-2011.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/15/3033/2011/hess-15-3033-2011.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Hourly precipitation extremes in very long time series from the Hong
      Kong Observatory and the Netherlands are investigated. Using the 2 m
      dew point temperature from 4 h before the rainfall event as a measure
      of near surface absolute humidity, hourly precipitation extremes
      closely follow a 14% per degree dependency â€“ a scaling twice as
      large as following from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, for
      dew point temperatures above 23 Â°C no significant dependency on
      humidity was found. Strikingly, in spite of the large difference in
      climate, results are almost identical in Hong Kong and the Netherlands
      for the dew point temperature range where both observational sets have
      sufficient data. Trends in hourly precipitation extremes show
      substantial increases over the last century for both De Bilt (the
      Netherlands) and Hong Kong. For De Bilt, not only the long term trend,
      but also variations in hourly precipitation extremes on
      an inter-decadal timescale of 30 yr and longer, can be linked very
      well to the above scaling; there is a very close resemblance between
      variations in dew point temperature and precipitation intensity with
      an inferred dependency of hourly precipitation extremes of 10 to
      14% per degree. For Hong Kong there is no connection between
      variations in humidity and those in precipitation intensity in the wet
      season, May to September. This is consistent with the found zero-dependency of
      precipitation intensity on humidity for dew points above
      23 Â°C. Yet, outside the wet season humidity changes do appear to
      explain the positive trend in hourly precipitation extremes, again
      following a dependency close to twice the Clausius-Clapeyron relation.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="9"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
<ref-list>
<title>References</title>
<ref id="ref1">
<label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Allan, R.&amp;nbsp;P., Soden, B.&amp;nbsp;J., John, V.&amp;nbsp;O., Ingram, W., and Good, P.: Current changes in tropical precipitation, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025205,   &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205&lt;/a&gt;, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref2">
<label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Allen, M.&amp;nbsp;R. and Ingram, W.&amp;nbsp;J.: Constraints on the future changes in climate and the hydrological cycle, Nature, 419, 224â€“232, 2002.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref3">
<label>3</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Berg, P., Haerter, J.&amp;nbsp;O., Thejll, P., Piani, C., Hagemann, S., and Christensen, J.&amp;nbsp;H.: Seasonal characteristics of the relationship between daily precipitation intensity and surface temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D18102, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012008&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012008&lt;/a&gt;, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref4">
<label>4</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer-Verlag, London, 2001.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref5">
<label>5</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Ding, Y., Wang, Z., and Sun, Y.: Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: Observed evidences, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1139â€“1161, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1615&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1615&lt;/a&gt;, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref6">
<label>6</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Emori, S. and Brown, S.&amp;nbsp;J.: Dynamic and thermodynamic change in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change, Geophys.&amp;nbsp;Res.&amp;nbsp;Lett., 32, L17706, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023272&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023272&lt;/a&gt;, 2005.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref7">
<label>7</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Gastineau, G. and Soden, B.&amp;nbsp;J.: Model projected changes of extreme wind events in response to global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10810, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037500&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037500&lt;/a&gt;, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref8">
<label>8</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Ginn, W.-L., Lee, T.-C., and Chan, K.-Y.: Past and Future Changes in the Climate of Hong Kong, Acta Meteor. Sinica, 24, 163â€“175, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref9">
<label>9</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Haerter, J.&amp;nbsp;O. and Berg, P.: Unexpected rise in extreme precipitation caused by a shift in rain type?, Nat. Geosci., 2, 372â€“373, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref10">
<label>10</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Haerter, J.&amp;nbsp;O., Berg, P., and Hagemann, S.: Heavy rain intensity distributions on varying time scales and at different temperatures, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D17102, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013384&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013384&lt;/a&gt;, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref11">
<label>11</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Hardwick&amp;nbsp;Jones, R., Westra, S., and Sharma, A.: Observed relationships between extreme sub-daily precipitation, surface temperature, and relative humidity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22805, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045081&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045081&lt;/a&gt;, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref12">
<label>12</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Held, I.&amp;nbsp;M. and Soden, B.&amp;nbsp;J.: Robust Responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming, J. Climate, 19, 5686â€“5699, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref13">
<label>13</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Heywood, G. S.&amp;nbsp;P.: Surface pressure-patterns &amp; weather around the year in Hong Kong, Technical Memoirs&amp;nbsp;6, Hong Kong Observatory, 19 pp., 1953.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref14">
<label>14</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), edited by: Solomon, S.,  Qin, D.,  Manning, M.,  Chen, Z., Marquis, M.,  Averyt, K. B.,  Tignor, M., and  Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref15">
<label>15</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Kishtawal, C.&amp;nbsp;M., Niyogi, D., Tewari, M., Pielke, R.&amp;nbsp;A., and Shepherd, J.&amp;nbsp;M.: Urbanization signature in the observed heavy rainfall climatology over India, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 1908â€“1916, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2044&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2044&lt;/a&gt;, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref16">
<label>16</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Lee, T.-C., Leung, W.-M., and Chan, K.-W.: Climatological Normals for {H}ong {K}ong 1971â€“2000, Hong Kong Observatory Technical Note&amp;nbsp;83, Hong Kong Observatory, 33 pp., 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref17">
<label>17</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Lee, T.-C., Chan, K.-Y., and Ginn, W.-L.: Projection of Extreme Temperatures in Hong Kong in the 21st Century, Acta Meteor. Sinica, 25, 1â€“20, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref18">
<label>18</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Lenderink, G. and van Meijgaard, E.: Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes, Nat. Geosci., 1, 511â€“514, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo262&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo262&lt;/a&gt;, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref19">
<label>19</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Lenderink, G. and van Meijgaard, E.: Reply to: Unexpected rise in extreme precipitation caused by a shift in rain type?, Nat. Geosci., 2, p.&amp;nbsp;373, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo524&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo524&lt;/a&gt;, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref20">
<label>20</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Lenderink, G. and van Meijgaard, E.: Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025208, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025208&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025208&lt;/a&gt;,  2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref21">
<label>21</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Lenderink, G., van Ulden, A., van&amp;nbsp;den Hurk, B., and Keller, F.: A study on combining global and regional climate model results for generating climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation for the Netherlands, Clim. Dynam., 29, 157â€“176, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0227-z&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0227-z&lt;/a&gt;, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref22">
<label>22</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., and Selten, F.: Intense coastal rainfall in the Netherlands in response to high sea water temperatures: analysis of the event of August 2006 from the perspective of a changing climate., Clim. Dynam., 32, 19â€“33, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref23">
<label>23</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Muller, C.&amp;nbsp;J., O&apos;Gorman, P.&amp;nbsp;A., and Back, L.&amp;nbsp;E.: Intensification of precipitation extremes with warming in a cloud-resolving model., J. Climate, 24, 2784–-2800, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3876.1&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3876.1&lt;/a&gt;, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref24">
<label>24</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">O&apos;Gorman, P.&amp;nbsp;A. and Muller, C.&amp;nbsp;J.: How closely do changes in surface and column water vapor follow Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in climate change simulations?, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025207, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025207&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025207&lt;/a&gt;, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref25">
<label>25</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">O&apos;Gorman, P.&amp;nbsp;A. and Schneider, T.: The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change, Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 106, 14773â€“14777, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref26">
<label>26</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Pall, P., Allen, M., and Stone, D.: Testing the Clausius-Capeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; warming, Clim. Dynam., 28, 351â€“363, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref27">
<label>27</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Romps, D.&amp;nbsp;M.: Response of Tropical Precipitation to Global Warming, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 123â€“138, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3542.1&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3542.1&lt;/a&gt;, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref28">
<label>28</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Santer, B.&amp;nbsp;D., Mears, C., Wentz, F.&amp;nbsp;J., Taylor, K.&amp;nbsp;E., Gleckler, P.&amp;nbsp;J., Wigley, T. M.&amp;nbsp;L., Barnett, T.&amp;nbsp;P., Boyle, J.&amp;nbsp;S., BrÃ¼ggemann, W., Gillett, N.&amp;nbsp;P., Klein, S.&amp;nbsp;A., Meehl, G.&amp;nbsp;A., Nozawa, T., Pierce, D.&amp;nbsp;W., Stott, P.&amp;nbsp;A., Washington, W.&amp;nbsp;M., and Wehner, M.&amp;nbsp;F.: Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content, Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 104, 15248â€“15253, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref29">
<label>29</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Schneider, T. and O&apos;Gorman, P.&amp;nbsp;A.: Precipitation and its extremes in changed climates, in Proceedings of Hawaiian Aha Huliko&apos;a Winter Workshop, University of Hawaii,  61â€“66,  2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref30">
<label>30</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Shaw, S.&amp;nbsp;B., Royem, A.&amp;nbsp;A., and Riha, S.&amp;nbsp;J.: The relationship between extreme hourly precipitation and surface temperature in different hydroclimatic regions of the U.S., J. Hydrometeorol.,  12, 319â€“325, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1364.1&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1364.1&lt;/a&gt;, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref31">
<label>31</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Sherwood, S.&amp;nbsp;C., Ingram, W., Tsushima, Y., Satoh, M., Roberts, M., Vidale, P.&amp;nbsp;L., and O&apos;Gorman, P.&amp;nbsp;A.: Relative humidity changes in a warmer climate, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D09104, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012585&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012585&lt;/a&gt;, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref32">
<label>32</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Sugiyama, M., Shiogama, H., and Emori, S.: Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models, Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 107, 571â€“575, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref33">
<label>33</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Trenberth, K.&amp;nbsp;E. and Shea, D.&amp;nbsp;J.: Relationships between precipitation and surface temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L14703, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022760&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022760&lt;/a&gt;, 2005.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref34">
<label>34</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Trenberth, K.&amp;nbsp;E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R., and Parsons, D.: The changing character of precipitation., B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1205â€“1217, 2003.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref35">
<label>35</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Utsumi, N., Seto, S., Kanae, S., Maeda, E.&amp;nbsp;E., and Oki, T.: Does higher surface temperature intensify extreme precipitation?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16708, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048426&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048426&lt;/a&gt;, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref36">
<label>36</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">van&amp;nbsp;den Hurk, B., Tank, A., Lenderink, G., van Ulden, A., van Oldenborgh, G., Katsman, C., van&amp;nbsp;den Brink, H., Keller, F., Bessembinder, J., Burgers, G., Komen, G., Hazeleger, W., and Drijfhout, S.: New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands, Water Sci. Technol., 56, 27â€“33, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref37">
<label>37</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Vautard, R., Yiou, P., D&apos;Andrea, F., de&amp;nbsp;Noblet, N., Viovy, N., Cassou, C., Polcher, J., Ciais, P., Kageyama, M., and Fan, Y.: Summertime European heat and drought waves induced by wintertime Mediterranean rainfall deficit, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07711, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028001&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028001&lt;/a&gt;, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref38">
<label>38</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Willett, K.&amp;nbsp;M., Jones, P.&amp;nbsp;D., Thorne, P.&amp;nbsp;W., and Gillett, N.&amp;nbsp;P.: A comparison of large scale changes in surface humidity over land in observations and CMIP3 general circulation models, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025210, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025210&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025210&lt;/a&gt;, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref39">
<label>39</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Wong, M.&amp;nbsp;C., Mok, H.&amp;nbsp;Y., and Lee, T.&amp;nbsp;C.: Observed changes in extreme weather indices in Hong Kong, International Journal of Climatology, published online, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2238&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2238&lt;/a&gt;, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref40">
<label>40</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Xu, M., Chang, C.-P., Fu, C., Qi, Y., Robock, A., Robinson, D., and Zhang, H.-m.: Steady decline of east Asian monsoon winds, 1969â€“2000: Evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D24111, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007337&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007337&lt;/a&gt;, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>