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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">HESS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">HESS</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1607-7938</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/hess-15-2599-2011</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Improving pan-European hydrological simulation of extreme events through statistical bias correction of RCM-driven climate simulations</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rojas</surname>
<given-names>R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Feyen</surname>
<given-names>L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dosio</surname>
<given-names>A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bavera</surname>
<given-names>D.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission (EC), Ispra, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Climate Change &amp; Air Quality Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission (EC), Ispra, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>24</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2011</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>15</volume>
<issue>8</issue>
<fpage>2599</fpage>
<lpage>2620</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2011 R. Rojas et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2011</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/15/2599/2011/hess-15-2599-2011.html">This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/15/2599/2011/hess-15-2599-2011.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/15/2599/2011/hess-15-2599-2011.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/15/2599/2011/hess-15-2599-2011.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>In this work we asses the benefits of removing bias in climate forcing data
used for hydrological climate change impact assessment at pan-European scale,
with emphasis on floods. Climate simulations from the HIRHAM5-ECHAM5 model
driven by the SRES-A1B emission scenario are corrected for bias using a
histogram equalization method. As target for the bias correction we
employ gridded interpolated observations of precipitation, average, minimum,
and maximum temperature from the E-OBS data set. Bias removal transfer
functions are derived for the control period 1961–1990. These are
subsequently used to correct the climate simulations for the control period,
and, under the assumption of a stationary error model, for the future time
window 2071–2100. Validation against E-OBS climatology in the control period
shows that the correction method performs successfully in removing bias in
average and extreme statistics relevant for flood simulation over the
majority of the European domain in all seasons. This translates into
considerably improved simulations with the hydrological model of observed
average and extreme river discharges at a majority of 554 validation river
stations across Europe. Probabilities of extreme events derived employing
extreme value techniques are also more closely reproduced. Results indicate
that projections of future flood hazard in Europe based on uncorrected
climate simulations, both in terms of their magnitude and recurrence
interval, are likely subject to large errors. Notwithstanding the inherent
limitations of the large-scale approach used herein, this study strongly
advocates the removal of bias in climate simulations prior to their use in
hydrological impact assessment.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="22"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>European Commission</funding-source>
<award-id>CLIMATECOST - Full Costs of Climate Change (212774)</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
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