HESS Hydrology and Earth System Sciences HESS Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 1607-7938 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/hess-14-1047-2010 Probabilistic modelling of rainfall induced landslide hazard assessment Kawagoe S. 1 Kazama S. 2 Sarukkalige P. R. 3 Division of Environmental System Management, Faculty of Symbiotic Systems Science, Fukushima University, 1, Kanayagawa, Fukushima, 960-1296, Japan Department of Civil Engineering, Tohoku University, 6-6-06, Aramaki aza aoba, Aoba ku, Sendai, 980-8579, Japan Department of Civil Engineering, Curtin University of Technology, G.P.O. Box U1987, Perth, WA 6845, Australia 25 06 2010 14 6 1047 1061 Copyright: © 2010 S. Kawagoe et al. 2010 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/14/1047/2010/hess-14-1047-2010.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/14/1047/2010/hess-14-1047-2010.pdf

To evaluate the frequency and distribution of landslides hazards over Japan, this study uses a probabilistic model based on multiple logistic regression analysis. Study particular concerns several important physical parameters such as hydraulic parameters, geographical parameters and the geological parameters which are considered to be influential in the occurrence of landslides. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that hydrological parameter (hydraulic gradient) is the most influential factor in the occurrence of landslides. Therefore, the hydraulic gradient is used as the main hydraulic parameter; dynamic factor which includes the effect of heavy rainfall and their return period. Using the constructed spatial data-sets, a multiple logistic regression model is applied and landslide hazard probability maps are produced showing the spatial-temporal distribution of landslide hazard probability over Japan. To represent the landslide hazard in different temporal scales, extreme precipitation in 5 years, 30 years, and 100 years return periods are used for the evaluation. The results show that the highest landslide hazard probability exists in the mountain ranges on the western side of Japan (Japan Sea side), including the Hida and Kiso, Iide and the Asahi mountainous range, the south side of Chugoku mountainous range, the south side of Kyusu mountainous and the Dewa mountainous range and the Hokuriku region. The developed landslide hazard probability maps in this study will assist authorities, policy makers and decision makers, who are responsible for infrastructural planning and development, as they can identify landslide-susceptible areas and thus decrease landslide damage through proper preparation.

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